DWS Projections Show Ten-Year Job Growth At Less Than 1% Annually

With 5,200 new jobs generated in June on a year-over-year basis, Albuquerque provided less than a third of the state’s 17,300 new wage jobs. This is a big step down from May when the Duke City provided 7,300 new jobs, 51% of the 13,800 jobs for the month.
Statewide, the June to June growth saw 17,300 new wage jobs for 2.1% growth. That put New Mexico in a tie with four other states for 12th place in percentage growth. Those states are Oregon, Tennessee, New Hampshire and South Dakota. Amazing.
Last week’s report that New Mexico remained in third place for unemployment rates with 4.9% unemployed missed something. We are actually in fourth place behind West Virginia (5.3%), District of Columbia (5.6%) and Alaska, the longtime leader at 7.1%.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the detailed June job report today as part of the Labor Market Review newsletter.
For the other metros, Santa Fe added 1,200 jobs over the year. Farmington was up 600 and Las Cruces dropped
In Albuquerque professional and business services showed the largest sector gain, both in number with 3,900 jobs and percent with a 6.4% increase. The PBS sector “only” added 4,300 jobs statewide. Leisure and hospitality added 1,100 jobs in Albuquerque, 22% of the sector’s 4,900 new jobs statewide. Local government dropped 2,800 jobs during June, dragging the sector to a 2,600 job loss for the year.
In Las Cruces, government accounted for 800 of the total 900 lost jobs.
Government lost 400 jobs in Santa Fe where the one big increase was leisure and hospitality with 900 more jobs over the year.
From a 2016 base of 861,820, the Department of Workforce Solutions projects that employment in the state will add 57,580 jobs by 2026. That would bring employment to 919,400. The growth for the ten-year period will be 6.7%, or less than one percent per year or hardly at all. Such projection necessarily start with what we have, which, in 2016, was years of slight if any job growth. The projections assume no change in what we had in 2016. The projection, therefore, is “more of the same.”
Health care and social assistance with 25,960 jobs, or a 19.5% increase, leads the sectors. Accommodation and food services, tourism, sort of, is second with 7,120 jobs, or 7.9% growth.
DWS initially distributed the Labor Market Review using May's detailed sector for Albuquerque. It took about 90 minutes to fix the error and redistribute the issue. Nice save, guys.

Jobs Growth Breaks 2% Barrier. Employment Percentage Stays Low

Year over year wage job growth cracked the 2% barrier in June. This is a major hurdle; 2% jobs growth pretty much doesn’t happen in the state. The June 2017 to June 2018 year saw 17,300 new wage jobs for 2.1% growth, on a not seasonally adjusted basis. With adjustment, the growth was 1.5%.
The private sector provided 15,900 jobs with 1,400 in the public sector. The government jobs came from local government, up 3,700 jobs including 2,200 in education. The state dropped 1,500 jobs and the feds lost 800.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the June job figures this afternoon.
At 0.2 percentage points, New Mexico tied Pennsylvania and South Carolina for the largest drop in unemployment, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even with the drop, New Mexico keeps third place in unemployment rates with 4.9% unemployed. Alaska kept the unemployment rate lead with 7.1%. Washington, D.C., has 5.6%. With 4.7% unemployment, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada and Washington (state) are closing on New Mexico.
New Mexico’s labor force has grown by 25,000 since May 2017.
Leisure and hospital was the big sector gainer with 4,900 new wages jobs from June 2017 to June 2018. Professional and business services followed with 4,300 new jobs. The two sectors have substantial numbers of basic industry jobs.
Trade, transportation, and utilities chipped in with 2,200 new jobs. Financial businesses followed with 1,500 jobs.
Another June milestone was reporting zero counties with more than 10% unemployment. Luna County, the longtime carrier of the 10% plus unemployment standard, somehow found 1,150 new jobs between May and June that dropped the county unemployment rate to nine percent.
Lea and Eddy counties provided 4,400 jobs, year over year, with 2,300 in Lea and 2,100 in Eddy. Thank you Permian Basin.
My wet blanket for the month is the employment to population ratio. For 2017, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says, New Mexico held at third from the bottom with just 53.9% of the population employed. West Virginia remains the lowest at 50.5% followed by Mississippi at 53.1%.
North Dakota has 69.6 percent of its people employed, followed by Minnesota at 53.9% and Minnesota at 53.9%.

Abq Single Family Homes Sales Drop by 11 in June. Wow!

Sales dropped 11 units during June from May for single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque. That’s 0.92%. The performance was down 58 units, or 4.7%, from June 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the June sales report yesterday.
Pending sales in one month offer a rough indication of closed sales the following month. June’s pending sales of 1,279 homes was 94 fewer that the 1,373 sales pending during May. However the June pending performance was up 154 from June 2017, a healthy 13,7% increase.
Homes continue to sell quickly. Homes sold during June was on the market just 40 days, on average, the same as May and a week less than during June 2017. This average sales period is the shortest of the past year.
Month-over-month, the median price has increased since January when it was $189,000. The June median price was $212,500. The median was $199,950 for June 2017, and, for May 2018, it was $209,000.
With the exception of a blip during May 2018, the average price also has increased in since January. The average price was $238,458 in May, $244,365 during June, and $242,360 for June 2017.
The inventory of homes offered for sale has been increasing each month since February. The inventory was 3,297 for June, down 15.4% from 3,899 June 2017.