Friday, October 26, 2018

Eddy and Lea Counties and Metro Abq Lead September Wage Job Growth

New Mexico continued a strong job performance in the year from September 2017 to September 2018. The state added 19,600 wage jobs for a 2.3% increase over the year.
The Department of Workforce Services released detailed September job numbers late this afternoon in its Labor Market Review newsletter.
Metro Albuquerque kept pace with the state, scoring 2.3% wage job growth for the year, the result of 9,000 new jobs. The Albuquerque performance was good for 46% of the state’s net new wage jobs.
Job growth in the state’s other three metro areas shuffled along with Farmington the unlikely “hot spot,” reporting 1.2% growth (600 jobs), Las Cruces with 0.4% growth (300 jobs) and no change in Santa Fe’s job levels for the year.
Te real growth was in Eddy and Lea counties, both back to booming with Permian Basin oil and gas production. For the counties we must count “employment,” which is a bit different from wage jobs, but close enough for our purposes. Eddy County employment was 30,244 during September 2018. That’s 9% growth for the September to September year and an employment increase of 2,506. Lea County employment grew by 2,353, a 9.1% increase to 28,127.
Combined, metro Albuquerque and Lea and Eddy counties grabbed 71% of the year-over-year growth.
A curiosity is that, statewide, mining (and logging) show a one-year of a mere 100 jobs. Go figure.
The growing sectors across the state were leisure and hospitality (+5,100 or 5.2%), professional and business services (+4,300 or 4.1%) and construction (+3,700 or 8%).
Professional and business services (+4,200 or 6.9%) led the metro Albuquerque year-over-year growth, followed by construction (+1,200 or 5.1%). Note that the professional and business services growth outside Albuquerque was 100 jobs.
In the newsletter, DWS passed along some demographic estimates for 2017 from the Census Bureau.
At 48.8% Hispanic, New Mexico isn’t quite a majority Hispanic, but is much more Hispanic than the nation which is 18.1% Hispanic. We are also 3.5 percentage points more “white only,” 75.8% to 72.3%.
A compared to the nation, New Mexico is a bit younger, with both more children under 14 and more adults over 65.
We move less often than does the rest of the nation, but it seems that the people who do move were born in New Mexico. Natives to the state (meaning people born in New Mexico) comprise 53.4% of New Mexicans as compared to 58.2% of the nation. It’s those young families who leave seeking opportunity and the rest resting on the claimed wisdom of centuries of family residence.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Metro Abq Home Sales Show Seasonal Drop

During September, Metro Albuquerque sales of single family detached homes went back to the seasonal pattern of declining sales month over month. Closed sales peaked in May at 1,240 units, then dropped for two months before a slight increase to 1,192 units.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the September sales report last week.
The September performance was 1,031 sales, a 5.1% drop from August, which had an extra day. The sales were 3.1% ahead of September 2017. Of the past 12 months, on closed sales in June have been behind the same month as 2017.
Pending sales show the same pattern—two months of decline after the 2018 high in June, an increase in August to 1,164 and then a 127 unit, or 11%, decline in September to 1,037. The September pending performance was 22.1% ahead of September 2018.
Homes sold after an average of 40 days on the market, which ties May and June for the shortest sales period of the past year. Home took 43 days to sell during September 2017.
The median sales price dropped $15,010 to $199,990 from $215,000 in August, which was the highest median price of the year. The median price in September 2017 was $201,000. The September 2018 median price was 0.5% less.
In August the average price hit a 12-month high of $252,096. The average price in September was $239,282, a $12,814, or 5.1% drop.
The inventory of homes offered for sale—3,298 in September—dropped for the second month. The 12-month high was 3,728 homes during October 2017. There were 4,331 homes offered for sale during September 2016.
Mortgage rates, up about a point during the past year, are squeezing demand.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Gary Johnson Senate Campaign

The hot news here is that there is a Gary Johnson campaign. Johnson is the Libertarian candidate for the U.S. Senate seat held by Martin Heinrich, a Democrat.
Last night about 5 PM I heard a radio ad for Johnson. Then about an hour later a man knocked on my door seeking voter preference indications for the Senate race. He asked about Johnson first, so I take it he was working for Johnson.
The other candidate is Marc Rich, a Republican, who has put up a few signs.
It seems a bit curious that the Johnson campaign would spend staff on my heavily democratic precinct north of the University of New Mexico. But, hey, such decisions are not my decisions.