Job Growth: February

Job growth statewide continues to slow, a difficult achievement given that wage employment increased a mere 0.5% from January 2007 to January 2008. But the growth rate dropped to 0.4% from February 2007 through February 2008, according to the March 27 news release from the Department of Workforce Solutions.

The DWS release starts with the good news, the state's continuing low unemployment rate which was 3.2% in February, up a tick from January's record low of 3.1%. DWS' approach in constructing the news release is good public relations, if a little surreal. The second paragraph mentions the job growth rate. In the third paragraph, DWS asserts, with no apparent tongue in cheek, "the New Mexico economy remains resilient," perhaps because "we continue to add jobs." Well, sort of.

The economic tracking wizard of Colorado, Tucker Adams, suggests four reasons for the unemployment rate failing to fall much in the face of slowing job growth:

* Undocumented workers messing up the data both for job growth and job losses.

* Dropping labor force participation.

* Fewer jobs being created than show in the numbers because of estimating procedures.

* More part time jobs.

Job growth rates in the state's four metro areas suggest that rural areas may be losing jobs. The metro growth rates are: Albuquerque, 0.8%; Farmington, 2.8%; Las Cruces, 1.8%, Santa Fe, 1.6%. 

In January, a 2008 job growth forecast of 1.6% for 2008 was issued by the semi-secret For-unm Economic Forecasting Service of the University of New Mexico's Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Clearly that isn't going to happen.