Being good at her job, the Albuquerque’s Journal’s Ellen Marks, assistant business editor, decided to ask around about New Mexico’s situation with regard to growing employment and diversifying the economy. The answers from a couple of the state’s leading economists were, respectively: Not much and none. The economists were Jeff Mitchell, director of the University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business and Economist Research, and Jim Peach of New Mexico State University.
The story ran September 11.
Probably inadvertently, Marks provided Gov. Susana Martinez a place to demonstrate ignoring the issue. As was professionally appropriate, Marks asked to interview the governor. (Marks said “the Journal” asked for the interview; I presume it was Marks.) The response, quoting from the story, the Journal got, from “spokesman Michael Lonergan, ‘Unfortunately we don’t have the availability for an interview in the Governor’s calendar at this time.”
That’s absurd. If Gov. Martinez wanted to talk, there would be time to talk. Martinez kicked the bucket to economic development secretary Matt Geilsel (who I’m told is a good guy) who was stuck with saying, “the one percent growth in jobs over the past year is evidence that the state is headed in the right direction with “incremental, positive progress.”
Martinez is not appearing at the 2017 Domenici Institute conference in Las Cruces where she has been a fixture at the previous gatherings I have attended. The conference is this week, September 13 and 14.
Another gem appeared from a Martinez statement last month, “Through relentless commitment to reforms—balancing budgets, cutting taxes and streamlining regulations—we’re growing and diversifying our economy and competing for jobs and investment with neighboring states like never before —and even beating them.”
Governors like to say that balancing the state budget is a big deal, an accomplishment. Not so. In most states as in New Mexico, balancing the budget is a constitutional requirement. So a governor bragging on this is bragging on doing the job. Wow. AS to the Martinez tax cuts, I looked at them in a February column (see nmopinions.com) and found them to be much ado about very little.
A theme to the article is the ultra conventional received wisdom that recruiting companies to the state is the answer. Yes, recruiting is part of the answer. But the rest is looking at the entire state for the oft mentioned systemic issues such as the underground economy, one-person firms and financial institution capability.
Final note: Ben Cloutier said, attributing the comment to Gov. Martinez, that the movie biz had put more than $500 million into the NM economy. Over one year, or multiple years, the story didn’t say. But while $500 million is a lot of money, the state’s GDP was $93 million in 2016. So it wasn’t that big a deal. The statement also said the movie was “supporting 90,000 jobs in 2015.” That doesn’t says the movie biz employs 90,000 people. “Supporting” looks like one of those words carefully chosen to imply more than it says. If true, movies would provide more than 10% of the wage jobs in the state. I don’t believe it.
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Monday, September 11, 2017
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Fundamental Issues Confronting New Mexico Today
Revised 2015. Prepared for discussion by Harold Morgan, syndicated columnist
In this week's newspaper column I promised to post the revised list of what I consider fundamental issues facing New Mexico. These issues provide the basis for much of what appears in the column each week. While the list is incomplete, it provides a broad framework of deep, structural matters needing attention. How to take discussion of these issues to the rest of state is the problem. I'm working on an idea, a series of conferences, which of course would cost money. If you have any thoughts on the issues list and/or on how to bring the issues to a wider audience, email to hmorgan3@mac.com. - Harold
Some major institutional issues (including the usual suspects, such as water, agriculture and energy) are listed alphabetically:
• A majority of Hispanics tracing their heritage to Mexico. Cultural differences with traditional northern Hispanics.
• A state economy crossing multiple sectors and therefore not usefully measured. Generally we do science (labs to Intel) and work deriving from the land and culture (tourism, agriculture, literature, the Museum of New Mexico). Pure national defense (Holloman, Cannon) is a separate, smaller sector.
Economic activity should be identified to include everything associated with the business. Mines and smelters should go together. Aggregating everything involved with agriculture might take the sector from two percent of the economy to nine percent.
Comprehensive arts sector study released in 2014 indicates measurement approach as does the 2015 Borderplex Strategic Plan.
• Broadband (transportation of information).
• Environmentalist politics.
• Financial institution capability and role of community banks. Dodd-Frank regulations increase costs and constrain lending, more so in smaller communities.
• “Government dependence.” “Too much,” it is always alleged. In New Mexico federal activities are appropriate—border administration, land management, Indian affairs (see Native American, below). Research, itself widely varied. Military. Culture creates process orientation.
• Labor force participation. Low for decades.
• Land use and ownership. The private sector is the biggest owner of land in the state with 44 percent. Surprise! The feds own about a third of the state—34.3 percent—with the state at 12 percent and tribes with 9.4 percent. Private land ownership ranges from 6 percent in San Juan County to 93 percent in Curry County. These are old numbers and may have changed a little.
• Native American. Tribes, comprising almost ten percent of New Mexicans, are said to consider themselves ignored, not “at the table.” The Traditional Cultural Property dispute, fundamentally about theology and bureaucracy, has a major land use component. (See PERC Reports, Summer / Fall 2012, www.percreports.org or www.perc.org.) Custodial “trust” relationship with federal government inhibits reservation economic activity.
• New Mexico as the nation’s number two majority-minority state.
• Non-farm proprietorships (commonly without employees).
• Northern counties as “rural ghetto.”
• Population change driven by new babies. Adults provide the smaller portion of our population growth. But adults are the ones who pay taxes. Babies consume taxes. Increasing movement to other states. Population decline in 2014.
• Technology transfer: Being in the national defense business with an emphasis on nuclear limits development of an entrepreneurial culture. Some technology heads to the private sector. Los Alamos National Laboratory has recently restructured its approach. Recent awards for technologies involving contaminant removal, filtering water, open software wireless well monitoring and recycling Strontium-82 generated enthusiastic news releases and headlines.
• New Mexico’s Constitution.
• Transportation – highways, that is. Nine figure gap between desired construction and maintenance and money available.
• Underground or shadow economy. The only available estimates says 9.3% of New Mexico’s gross state product operates “off the books.” Aspects: cash only, no regular healthcare, no use of banks, inability to grow businesses. See non-farm proprietorships.
• Uneducated young people. That our kids can’t read is bad enough. History courses appear to be process. Knowing the facts—who won the particular war—is necessary before the processes. A high school catalogue calls New Mexico history a semester-long survey “with an emphasis on the 20th century to the present.” The 17th, 18th and 19th centuries don’t count much.
The economics course cites “government agencies” as the first player in the “allocation of scarce resources and the economic reasoning.” People are mentioned but not markets.
• Communication: Perhaps the biggest challenge. New Mexico is a big state with 77.9 million acres, or 121,335 square miles. Just over half of us live in the north central Rio Grande Valley from Belen to Velarde. The rest of us live everywhere else.
Events in one corner of the state fail to penetrate the other corner. The private sector might step up here.
In this week's newspaper column I promised to post the revised list of what I consider fundamental issues facing New Mexico. These issues provide the basis for much of what appears in the column each week. While the list is incomplete, it provides a broad framework of deep, structural matters needing attention. How to take discussion of these issues to the rest of state is the problem. I'm working on an idea, a series of conferences, which of course would cost money. If you have any thoughts on the issues list and/or on how to bring the issues to a wider audience, email to hmorgan3@mac.com. - Harold
Some major institutional issues (including the usual suspects, such as water, agriculture and energy) are listed alphabetically:
• A majority of Hispanics tracing their heritage to Mexico. Cultural differences with traditional northern Hispanics.
• A state economy crossing multiple sectors and therefore not usefully measured. Generally we do science (labs to Intel) and work deriving from the land and culture (tourism, agriculture, literature, the Museum of New Mexico). Pure national defense (Holloman, Cannon) is a separate, smaller sector.
Economic activity should be identified to include everything associated with the business. Mines and smelters should go together. Aggregating everything involved with agriculture might take the sector from two percent of the economy to nine percent.
Comprehensive arts sector study released in 2014 indicates measurement approach as does the 2015 Borderplex Strategic Plan.
• Broadband (transportation of information).
• Environmentalist politics.
• Financial institution capability and role of community banks. Dodd-Frank regulations increase costs and constrain lending, more so in smaller communities.
• “Government dependence.” “Too much,” it is always alleged. In New Mexico federal activities are appropriate—border administration, land management, Indian affairs (see Native American, below). Research, itself widely varied. Military. Culture creates process orientation.
• Labor force participation. Low for decades.
• Land use and ownership. The private sector is the biggest owner of land in the state with 44 percent. Surprise! The feds own about a third of the state—34.3 percent—with the state at 12 percent and tribes with 9.4 percent. Private land ownership ranges from 6 percent in San Juan County to 93 percent in Curry County. These are old numbers and may have changed a little.
• Native American. Tribes, comprising almost ten percent of New Mexicans, are said to consider themselves ignored, not “at the table.” The Traditional Cultural Property dispute, fundamentally about theology and bureaucracy, has a major land use component. (See PERC Reports, Summer / Fall 2012, www.percreports.org or www.perc.org.) Custodial “trust” relationship with federal government inhibits reservation economic activity.
• New Mexico as the nation’s number two majority-minority state.
• Non-farm proprietorships (commonly without employees).
• Northern counties as “rural ghetto.”
• Population change driven by new babies. Adults provide the smaller portion of our population growth. But adults are the ones who pay taxes. Babies consume taxes. Increasing movement to other states. Population decline in 2014.
• Technology transfer: Being in the national defense business with an emphasis on nuclear limits development of an entrepreneurial culture. Some technology heads to the private sector. Los Alamos National Laboratory has recently restructured its approach. Recent awards for technologies involving contaminant removal, filtering water, open software wireless well monitoring and recycling Strontium-82 generated enthusiastic news releases and headlines.
• New Mexico’s Constitution.
• Transportation – highways, that is. Nine figure gap between desired construction and maintenance and money available.
• Underground or shadow economy. The only available estimates says 9.3% of New Mexico’s gross state product operates “off the books.” Aspects: cash only, no regular healthcare, no use of banks, inability to grow businesses. See non-farm proprietorships.
• Uneducated young people. That our kids can’t read is bad enough. History courses appear to be process. Knowing the facts—who won the particular war—is necessary before the processes. A high school catalogue calls New Mexico history a semester-long survey “with an emphasis on the 20th century to the present.” The 17th, 18th and 19th centuries don’t count much.
The economics course cites “government agencies” as the first player in the “allocation of scarce resources and the economic reasoning.” People are mentioned but not markets.
• Communication: Perhaps the biggest challenge. New Mexico is a big state with 77.9 million acres, or 121,335 square miles. Just over half of us live in the north central Rio Grande Valley from Belen to Velarde. The rest of us live everywhere else.
Events in one corner of the state fail to penetrate the other corner. The private sector might step up here.
Colorado Column 2014, No. 1
In my newspaper column that will appear in nine community newspapers around the state this week, I wrote about New Mexico's (non) rankings among the 50 state on 109 factors listed in the new edition of “Toward a More Competitive Colorado.” I promised to post for comparison the columns about the 2014 edition of the publication. The first column follows. The second column is the next post. - Harold Morgan
12/5/14
Colorado Comparison Part One: Things Can Change
By Harold Morgan
If Colorado’s leaders are smarter than those in New Mexico, something I don’t believe, they can’t be that (BF? Ital?) much smarter. After all, to determine our performance in a host of categories, we can freeload off Colorado and save work and money. The reference here is to the just released 10th edition of “Toward a More Competitive Colorado,” a comprehensive look at nine general categories, each with up to a dozen components. To find the report, go to metrodenver.org and look in the research and reports section.
New Mexico’s various national rankings are what this column and the next are about. But the other important point, maybe the important point, is that things can change and change for the better. In 2013 Colorado was third for job growth. It was 49th in 2002 after what the report calls “the ‘dot.bomb’ recession.”
Many of the comparisons are ugly. But facing these things offers a place to begin a vision. Colorado seems in the top handful on just about everything. New Mexico, well, not so much.
Necessarily the report deals with the past; most tables use data through 2013. In the present, New Mexico tied Idaho for 34th place among the states in job production performance between October 2013 and 2014. Alaska was the only state losing jobs during the year. New Mexico’s four neighboring state all finished in the top ten for job growth percentage. Texas was 2nd; Utah 3rd; Arizona 8th, and Colorado 9th.
For economic outlook, the American Legislative Council places New Mexico 37th. New Mexico’s outlook has been in the mid-thirties since dropping ten places in 2010. Colorado’s outlook has slipped. “The economic outlook for all (Colorado’s) competitor states except New Mexico surpassed Colorado in 2013 and 2014,” the report says.
The big categories are economic vitality, innovation, taxes, livability, K-12 education, higher education, health, infrastructure and international.
The overall infrastructure index from the Beacon Hill Institute puts New Mexico 42nd in 2013 after a bump to 22nd in 2008. The index measures “concentration of mobile phones, access to high-speed broadband, air travel, worker commute times, and access to an affordable cost of living.”
Getting federal money for highways is a place where New Mexico does well. The criteria seem to be few people and much land. New Mexico is 11th in per capita federal highway money (Alaska is first, Wyoming, 2nd) and 7th in “highway performance,” according to the Reason Foundation. This measure leaves unexplained the nine figure gap between available money and what the Department of Transportation would like to build and fix.
Health is another matter. We are 48th in the percentage of the population with health insurance. For registered nurses per 100,000 people, we are 43rd, not good but a six-place improvement since 2008.
Subsidized energy is big. New Mexico is fourth in installed solar energy. Colorado is sixth. Colorado is tenth in wind with New Mexico 18th.
Population growth rate reflects the decisions of many people. Our neighbors live in the top ten. Utah is 2nd, Colorado 3rd, Texas 4th, Arizona 8th, and New Mexico almost last at 48th.
People moving here come to the state with the ninth highest per capita state government spending. Our low property tax status disappears when comparing the largest city in each state. New Mexico, i.e., Albuquerque, is 25th. Only California and Minnesota claim higher business taxes than New Mexico. “New Mexico’s top corporate income tax rate and its higher sales, gross receipts, and excise tax burdens are challenges,” the report says.
“Challenges” is the report’s double-speak word for “problems.” More next week on the opportunities and the problems including the economic vitality rankings.
12/5/14
Colorado Comparison Part One: Things Can Change
By Harold Morgan
If Colorado’s leaders are smarter than those in New Mexico, something I don’t believe, they can’t be that (BF? Ital?) much smarter. After all, to determine our performance in a host of categories, we can freeload off Colorado and save work and money. The reference here is to the just released 10th edition of “Toward a More Competitive Colorado,” a comprehensive look at nine general categories, each with up to a dozen components. To find the report, go to metrodenver.org and look in the research and reports section.
New Mexico’s various national rankings are what this column and the next are about. But the other important point, maybe the important point, is that things can change and change for the better. In 2013 Colorado was third for job growth. It was 49th in 2002 after what the report calls “the ‘dot.bomb’ recession.”
Many of the comparisons are ugly. But facing these things offers a place to begin a vision. Colorado seems in the top handful on just about everything. New Mexico, well, not so much.
Necessarily the report deals with the past; most tables use data through 2013. In the present, New Mexico tied Idaho for 34th place among the states in job production performance between October 2013 and 2014. Alaska was the only state losing jobs during the year. New Mexico’s four neighboring state all finished in the top ten for job growth percentage. Texas was 2nd; Utah 3rd; Arizona 8th, and Colorado 9th.
For economic outlook, the American Legislative Council places New Mexico 37th. New Mexico’s outlook has been in the mid-thirties since dropping ten places in 2010. Colorado’s outlook has slipped. “The economic outlook for all (Colorado’s) competitor states except New Mexico surpassed Colorado in 2013 and 2014,” the report says.
The big categories are economic vitality, innovation, taxes, livability, K-12 education, higher education, health, infrastructure and international.
The overall infrastructure index from the Beacon Hill Institute puts New Mexico 42nd in 2013 after a bump to 22nd in 2008. The index measures “concentration of mobile phones, access to high-speed broadband, air travel, worker commute times, and access to an affordable cost of living.”
Getting federal money for highways is a place where New Mexico does well. The criteria seem to be few people and much land. New Mexico is 11th in per capita federal highway money (Alaska is first, Wyoming, 2nd) and 7th in “highway performance,” according to the Reason Foundation. This measure leaves unexplained the nine figure gap between available money and what the Department of Transportation would like to build and fix.
Health is another matter. We are 48th in the percentage of the population with health insurance. For registered nurses per 100,000 people, we are 43rd, not good but a six-place improvement since 2008.
Subsidized energy is big. New Mexico is fourth in installed solar energy. Colorado is sixth. Colorado is tenth in wind with New Mexico 18th.
Population growth rate reflects the decisions of many people. Our neighbors live in the top ten. Utah is 2nd, Colorado 3rd, Texas 4th, Arizona 8th, and New Mexico almost last at 48th.
People moving here come to the state with the ninth highest per capita state government spending. Our low property tax status disappears when comparing the largest city in each state. New Mexico, i.e., Albuquerque, is 25th. Only California and Minnesota claim higher business taxes than New Mexico. “New Mexico’s top corporate income tax rate and its higher sales, gross receipts, and excise tax burdens are challenges,” the report says.
“Challenges” is the report’s double-speak word for “problems.” More next week on the opportunities and the problems including the economic vitality rankings.
Monday, August 10, 2015
Monthly Sales Over 1,000 for First Time Since 2007
During July metro Albuquerque sales of single family detached homes rose a little from June, about what happened a year ago. The difference is that the 1,157 sales during July were 23% higher than during July 2014, according to the monthly sales report released today by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors (GAAR).
A quick glance at the history says that June 2007 was the last time monthly single closed sales cracked 1,000 units.
The July closed sales accounted for 85% of the 1,188 sales pending during June, a high figure. In July, pending sales dropped to 1,157 units, suggesting that closed sales may drop during August. July’s pending sales were 17.3% more than July 2014, likely leaving room for year-over-year sales continuing ahead of 2014.
Homes sold during July were on the market an average of 56 days, three days more than June, but a day quicker than the 60 recorded for July 2014.
Prices were lower, though, both from June and from July 2014. The median price, $185,000, dropped about 2.5% from $190,788 in June and $190,000 in July 2014. The average price dropped eight percent from $230,750 in July 2014 to $212,345 last month and from $226,337 in June.
Condo/townhouse sales run around ten percent of detached home sales. That rough ratio held during July 107 closed sales. The difference was the 42% improvement from 75 sales in July 2014.
Since December 2014, metro Albuquerque has reported less than a 5.5-month supply of homes for sale. “An average market is traditionally a six-month supply,” GAAR says.
A quick glance at the history says that June 2007 was the last time monthly single closed sales cracked 1,000 units.
The July closed sales accounted for 85% of the 1,188 sales pending during June, a high figure. In July, pending sales dropped to 1,157 units, suggesting that closed sales may drop during August. July’s pending sales were 17.3% more than July 2014, likely leaving room for year-over-year sales continuing ahead of 2014.
Homes sold during July were on the market an average of 56 days, three days more than June, but a day quicker than the 60 recorded for July 2014.
Prices were lower, though, both from June and from July 2014. The median price, $185,000, dropped about 2.5% from $190,788 in June and $190,000 in July 2014. The average price dropped eight percent from $230,750 in July 2014 to $212,345 last month and from $226,337 in June.
Condo/townhouse sales run around ten percent of detached home sales. That rough ratio held during July 107 closed sales. The difference was the 42% improvement from 75 sales in July 2014.
Since December 2014, metro Albuquerque has reported less than a 5.5-month supply of homes for sale. “An average market is traditionally a six-month supply,” GAAR says.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Abq Jobs Up 2.2%, SF, LC Down
Average weekly manufacturing sector wages dropped from almost $50/week from June 2014 to June 2015, the Department of Workforce Solutions reported n the Labor Market Review newsletter released Tuesday. Sector average wages were $726.68 in June 2014 and $678.12 a year later. The drop was due to lowers wages and fewer hours worked.
Not that manufacturing is a big deal in the state with about three percent of wage jobs. But it is an important part of the basic employment group, sectors that ship their products from the state and are paid with money originating from outside the state.
But even this claim is less than meets the eye. Manufacturing includes printing and publishing, nearly all of which is sold within the state.
During the year from June 2014 to June 2015, the wage job total, seasonally adjusted, grew by 10,900, a measly 1.3 percent increase, from 816,400 to 827,300.
Even this increase, though welcome, is something of a charade, at least with regards to building a solid economy and increasing the wealth of New Mexicans. That’s because about two-thirds of the increase, or 6,500 jobs, came in the education and health services sector.
I finally got around to asking a wizard friend, a labor economist, what was happening. The reply was, “Healthcare has been strong for quite some time both due to Medicaid and Affordable Healthcare Act. Also, when one looks at the (more detailed) data most of the growth is in Ambulatory Health Care Services, and Social Assistance with just marginal increases in Hospitals and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities.”
In other words, government action explains much of the increase. Not good.
Metro area performance remains mixed.
Albuquerque added 8,300 wage jobs, not seasonally adjusted, a decent enough 2.2 percent increase, from June 2014 to June 2015. But that was two-thirds of the state’s 12,700 job increase, again not seasonally adjusted.
Professional and business services led Albuquerque with 3,600 new jobs, 90 percent of the sectors increase statewide over the June to June year. Education and health care added 2,700 jobs in Albuquerque, a third of the 7,700-job increase statewide.
For Farmington, little detail is available other than the grand totals. Well, maybe not grand, but pretty good. The 1,100 new wage jobs represented 2.2 percent growth rate.
Las Cruces and Santa Fe both lost jobs during the year. Las Cruces was down 400 jobs, Santa Fe dropped 100.
Not that manufacturing is a big deal in the state with about three percent of wage jobs. But it is an important part of the basic employment group, sectors that ship their products from the state and are paid with money originating from outside the state.
But even this claim is less than meets the eye. Manufacturing includes printing and publishing, nearly all of which is sold within the state.
During the year from June 2014 to June 2015, the wage job total, seasonally adjusted, grew by 10,900, a measly 1.3 percent increase, from 816,400 to 827,300.
Even this increase, though welcome, is something of a charade, at least with regards to building a solid economy and increasing the wealth of New Mexicans. That’s because about two-thirds of the increase, or 6,500 jobs, came in the education and health services sector.
I finally got around to asking a wizard friend, a labor economist, what was happening. The reply was, “Healthcare has been strong for quite some time both due to Medicaid and Affordable Healthcare Act. Also, when one looks at the (more detailed) data most of the growth is in Ambulatory Health Care Services, and Social Assistance with just marginal increases in Hospitals and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities.”
In other words, government action explains much of the increase. Not good.
Metro area performance remains mixed.
Albuquerque added 8,300 wage jobs, not seasonally adjusted, a decent enough 2.2 percent increase, from June 2014 to June 2015. But that was two-thirds of the state’s 12,700 job increase, again not seasonally adjusted.
Professional and business services led Albuquerque with 3,600 new jobs, 90 percent of the sectors increase statewide over the June to June year. Education and health care added 2,700 jobs in Albuquerque, a third of the 7,700-job increase statewide.
For Farmington, little detail is available other than the grand totals. Well, maybe not grand, but pretty good. The 1,100 new wage jobs represented 2.2 percent growth rate.
Las Cruces and Santa Fe both lost jobs during the year. Las Cruces was down 400 jobs, Santa Fe dropped 100.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Violence in NM
We are number nine, says Marketwatch.com. Alaska is no. 1 with 2013 firearm death rate of 19.6 per 100,000.The report was done by http://247wallst.com, which produces lots of lists.
"New Mexico
"2013 firearm death rate: 15.4 per 100,000
"Total firearm deaths 2004-2013: 2,983 (19th lowest)
"Violent crime rate: 613.0 (2nd highest)
"Permit required to buy handgun: No
"Like most states across the country, the largest proportion of gun-related deaths in New Mexico was attributable to suicide. The age-adjusted firearm suicide rate of 10.3 per 100,000 was the ninth highest rate in the country. New Mexico also had the highest death rate by legal intervention — deaths caused by police or other law-enforcement officials — in the country. In general, New Mexico residents were exposed to a large number of crimes. The state reported 613 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, the second highest rate in the country. Low education levels and widespread poverty may partly explain the high gun violence and deaths. Nearly 22% of New Mexico’s population lived in poverty, substantially higher than the national poverty rate of 15.8%. Additionally, only 84.3% of adults had at least a high school diploma, the sixth lowest rate in the country."
Oklahoma is 8th. The other three four-corners stated don't make the top ten.
"New Mexico
"2013 firearm death rate: 15.4 per 100,000
"Total firearm deaths 2004-2013: 2,983 (19th lowest)
"Violent crime rate: 613.0 (2nd highest)
"Permit required to buy handgun: No
"Like most states across the country, the largest proportion of gun-related deaths in New Mexico was attributable to suicide. The age-adjusted firearm suicide rate of 10.3 per 100,000 was the ninth highest rate in the country. New Mexico also had the highest death rate by legal intervention — deaths caused by police or other law-enforcement officials — in the country. In general, New Mexico residents were exposed to a large number of crimes. The state reported 613 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, the second highest rate in the country. Low education levels and widespread poverty may partly explain the high gun violence and deaths. Nearly 22% of New Mexico’s population lived in poverty, substantially higher than the national poverty rate of 15.8%. Additionally, only 84.3% of adults had at least a high school diploma, the sixth lowest rate in the country."
Oklahoma is 8th. The other three four-corners stated don't make the top ten.
Friday, June 19, 2015
Less Than Meets the Eye to Job Growth
Those nice 1.5% year-over-year wage job increases are gone, One hopes it is only for the monthly moment. That’s because the sectors growing the fastest bring less to the basic economy that is presumed.
The job growth in May was one percent over May 2014 with 8,200 new jobs statewide, a drop from 1.5% the past couple of months.
The other worrisome point in this corner is that the fastest growing job sector is education and health services. The two sectors are home to what you would expect. Education includes private schools, trade school and automobile driving schools. Health services is doctors, hospitals and child care.
Education and health services produced 5,000 new jobs, year over year, 61% of those 8,200 jobs statewide.
Leisure and hospital, home to much of our tourism, added 1,900 jobs from May 2014 to May 2015. The sector also included the restaurants serving a local customer base, and, therefore depending on other basic industries. The sector brings less than meets the eye to consideration of true economic health.
As does the professional and business services sector which, yes, has the consulting engineers but also has lawyers. The sector’s 1,300 new jobs, year over year, did nudge the job total back past 100,000.
Manufacturing lost 100 jobs over the year while mining showed no change. These two sectors, though small, are the core of the wealth producing economy.
In rural news, the Mora County unemployment rate dropped to 9%, or 190 people, leaving Luna County the only county with unemployment over 10%. Luna’s unemployment rate is 18.1%, or 1,873 people.
The job growth in May was one percent over May 2014 with 8,200 new jobs statewide, a drop from 1.5% the past couple of months.
The other worrisome point in this corner is that the fastest growing job sector is education and health services. The two sectors are home to what you would expect. Education includes private schools, trade school and automobile driving schools. Health services is doctors, hospitals and child care.
Education and health services produced 5,000 new jobs, year over year, 61% of those 8,200 jobs statewide.
Leisure and hospital, home to much of our tourism, added 1,900 jobs from May 2014 to May 2015. The sector also included the restaurants serving a local customer base, and, therefore depending on other basic industries. The sector brings less than meets the eye to consideration of true economic health.
As does the professional and business services sector which, yes, has the consulting engineers but also has lawyers. The sector’s 1,300 new jobs, year over year, did nudge the job total back past 100,000.
Manufacturing lost 100 jobs over the year while mining showed no change. These two sectors, though small, are the core of the wealth producing economy.
In rural news, the Mora County unemployment rate dropped to 9%, or 190 people, leaving Luna County the only county with unemployment over 10%. Luna’s unemployment rate is 18.1%, or 1,873 people.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Abq Homes Sales Continue to Increase
Closed sales of single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque hit 903 units in May, up 13% over May 2014 and an increase of 68%, or 366 units from the winter low in January of 537 closed sales. But it’s hardly been a steady path. The performance for sales closed was the highest since 939 sales closed in July 2013.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the May sales report today. The monthly increases in sales closed during 2015 are: Jan-Feb 17; Feb-March 273; March-April 17; April-May 59.
Pending sales activity suggests further increases in closings. During May pending sales were 1,234 homes, up 54, or five percent from April. Those May pending sales represented a 24% increase from May 2014.
During May an average of 29.1 homes sold each day, an increase of one from April. The homes sold in an average of 62 days, the quickest sales of 2015 and the quickest since July 2014 when the average sales period of 62 days.
All this activity did not bring higher prices to sellers, as compared to 2014. From April, though, prices increased. The average sales price, $218,228, dropped around $5,000 from May 2014, a 2.2% decline. The average price was up $4,200 or four percent from April. The median price, $181,000 increased all of $1,000 from May 2014. The increase was $4,200 or two percent from April. Closing of the sale of three $1 million (plus) homes during May helped the average price.
May provided the highest median price since 2009, and, except for drop from May of 2014, the highest average price since 2009.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the May sales report today. The monthly increases in sales closed during 2015 are: Jan-Feb 17; Feb-March 273; March-April 17; April-May 59.
Pending sales activity suggests further increases in closings. During May pending sales were 1,234 homes, up 54, or five percent from April. Those May pending sales represented a 24% increase from May 2014.
During May an average of 29.1 homes sold each day, an increase of one from April. The homes sold in an average of 62 days, the quickest sales of 2015 and the quickest since July 2014 when the average sales period of 62 days.
All this activity did not bring higher prices to sellers, as compared to 2014. From April, though, prices increased. The average sales price, $218,228, dropped around $5,000 from May 2014, a 2.2% decline. The average price was up $4,200 or four percent from April. The median price, $181,000 increased all of $1,000 from May 2014. The increase was $4,200 or two percent from April. Closing of the sale of three $1 million (plus) homes during May helped the average price.
May provided the highest median price since 2009, and, except for drop from May of 2014, the highest average price since 2009.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
1.5% Job Growth Continues
During April, the New Mexico economy stuck with the 1.5% year-over-year wage job growth rate that appeared in March. April brought 12,600 new jobs over April 2014.
The curious part is that 37%, or 4,900, of the new jobs are in the education and health services sector. The Department of Workforce Solutions did not explain this situation in today’s news release. But this sector depends on others for its business, so something unusual is happening. Medicaid?
Growth came to sectors that are part of the base economy grew including Leisure and hospitality, 2,700; Professional and business services, 1,900; information, 300; manufacturing, 200; and mining, 300. The latter sector’s growth is the slowest since April 2010, the DWS release said, reflecting the slowing in oil deveopment.
The curious part is that 37%, or 4,900, of the new jobs are in the education and health services sector. The Department of Workforce Solutions did not explain this situation in today’s news release. But this sector depends on others for its business, so something unusual is happening. Medicaid?
Growth came to sectors that are part of the base economy grew including Leisure and hospitality, 2,700; Professional and business services, 1,900; information, 300; manufacturing, 200; and mining, 300. The latter sector’s growth is the slowest since April 2010, the DWS release said, reflecting the slowing in oil deveopment.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Job Growth is 1.6% in March
New Mexico seems to have settled in on a year-over-year wage job growth rate of 1.5% plus. For the March 2014 to March 2015 year, it was 1.6%, or 13,000 jobs statewide, according to figures released today by the Department of Workforce Services and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
By percentage, business and professional led the growth at 3.8% (3,700 jobs), followed by leisure and hospitality, 3.6% (3,200 jobs), and education and health services, 3.5% (4,400 jobs).
Growth is slower in the oil counties of Lea and Eddy, but the job growth continues.
By percentage, business and professional led the growth at 3.8% (3,700 jobs), followed by leisure and hospitality, 3.6% (3,200 jobs), and education and health services, 3.5% (4,400 jobs).
Growth is slower in the oil counties of Lea and Eddy, but the job growth continues.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Abq Homes Sale Up 19% from March 2014
More homes sold in metro Albuquerque for more money than in months and months, according to the March sales report released today by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
March closed sales of 827 single family detached homes were 49%, or 273 homes, more than February (March does have three more selling days than February) and 19% more than March 2014. The March sales were the highest since the sale of 857 homes closed during August 2013.
During March the number of pending sales jumped 20% from February to 1,102 and showed a 16% increase over February 2014. February pending sales also increased 16% over the previous year. Of the 921 pending sales during February, 90% turned into closed sales during March.
Average prices increased 5.5% during March to $210,069, pushed along by the sale closing for four homes in the $1 million-plus category. Sales increased in 10 of the 12 price groups about the $100,000 threshold. Sales were the same as March at 21 homes in the $500,000 - $749,000 group and dropped one—from three to two—in the $750,000 to $999,000 group.
The median price increased $6,000, or 4%, to $175,000 during March. The $175,000 median price is the highest March median since 2010.
The absorption rate has been below 5.5 months since December, indicating a better than average market. The supply-demand ration has dropped by half to 3.33 since December, meaning a tightening of supply relative to demand.
March closed sales of 827 single family detached homes were 49%, or 273 homes, more than February (March does have three more selling days than February) and 19% more than March 2014. The March sales were the highest since the sale of 857 homes closed during August 2013.
During March the number of pending sales jumped 20% from February to 1,102 and showed a 16% increase over February 2014. February pending sales also increased 16% over the previous year. Of the 921 pending sales during February, 90% turned into closed sales during March.
Average prices increased 5.5% during March to $210,069, pushed along by the sale closing for four homes in the $1 million-plus category. Sales increased in 10 of the 12 price groups about the $100,000 threshold. Sales were the same as March at 21 homes in the $500,000 - $749,000 group and dropped one—from three to two—in the $750,000 to $999,000 group.
The median price increased $6,000, or 4%, to $175,000 during March. The $175,000 median price is the highest March median since 2010.
The absorption rate has been below 5.5 months since December, indicating a better than average market. The supply-demand ration has dropped by half to 3.33 since December, meaning a tightening of supply relative to demand.
Friday, April 3, 2015
State Job Improvement Continues
The statistically re-benchmarked performance of the New Mexico economy continues, according to the new Labor Market Review newsletter released today, April 3, by the Department of Workforce Solutions.
The best news is in Albuquerque and Farmington. For the year between February 2014 and February 2015, 15,900 new wage jobs appeared on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The number of wage jobs increased 10,400 between January and February.
Albuquerque led the metro pack with 6,700 jobs, year over year. That was a net of 7,100 private sector jobs and a loss 400 government jobs with state government gains of 400 offsetting local government losing 700 jobs.
Farmington was the other big metro winner with 2,800 new wage jobs over the year, 2,500 of them in the private sectors.
Santa Fe didn’t badly with 1,100 new jobs even with the loss of 400 construction jobs.
Nothing much happened in Las Cruces during the year. The metro lost 200 jobs, split between the private guys and government.
Statewide and in Albuquerque the sectors with the biggest job growth were professional and business services, education and health services and leisure and hospitality. In Albuquerque, the three sectors added 6,100 jobs, year over year. Statewide the three added 10,400 jobs.
All these figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The best news is in Albuquerque and Farmington. For the year between February 2014 and February 2015, 15,900 new wage jobs appeared on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The number of wage jobs increased 10,400 between January and February.
Albuquerque led the metro pack with 6,700 jobs, year over year. That was a net of 7,100 private sector jobs and a loss 400 government jobs with state government gains of 400 offsetting local government losing 700 jobs.
Farmington was the other big metro winner with 2,800 new wage jobs over the year, 2,500 of them in the private sectors.
Santa Fe didn’t badly with 1,100 new jobs even with the loss of 400 construction jobs.
Nothing much happened in Las Cruces during the year. The metro lost 200 jobs, split between the private guys and government.
Statewide and in Albuquerque the sectors with the biggest job growth were professional and business services, education and health services and leisure and hospitality. In Albuquerque, the three sectors added 6,100 jobs, year over year. Statewide the three added 10,400 jobs.
All these figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Statistical Shuffle Improves Job Picture
Everything that was said about job performance and non-performance in New Mexico was wrong. Or at least all that stuff about months and months of job losses is out of date now. That’s because the federal Bureau of Labors Statistics and New Mexico’s Department of Workforce Solutions changes the rules once each year.
DWS in its March 17 release “explained” the changes this way. “Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics realigns the sample-based estimates of the CES survey to incorporate universe counts of employment—a process known as benchmarking.”
As an example of the changes, readers may remember the year over year changes in the finance sector of well over 1,000 jobs. When this “growth” was reported each month, the report here came with skeptical note. The problem, as I see it, is that the sector is too small to support such growth without something radical happening such as a new and large employer. For sure, banks, the largest employer in finance, aren’t adding people except to do Dodd-Frank required compliance.
Guess what, guys, with the bench newly marked, as it were, the finance sector showed a gain of 300 jobs, or less than one percent, between January 2014 and January 2015.
The new numbers show professional and business services, considered a key proxy for national laboratory activity, showed 1,700 new jobs, year over year. Education and health services led the sector pack with 4,700 new jobs, or 3.7%, which was about 39% an (unlikely to me) of the year’s total job gain of 10,200 jobs.
Government dropped 1,200 jobs, 500 from the feds and 600 from local government. State government, buoyed by 1,100 new education jobs (in universities), lost just 100.
DWS in its March 17 release “explained” the changes this way. “Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics realigns the sample-based estimates of the CES survey to incorporate universe counts of employment—a process known as benchmarking.”
As an example of the changes, readers may remember the year over year changes in the finance sector of well over 1,000 jobs. When this “growth” was reported each month, the report here came with skeptical note. The problem, as I see it, is that the sector is too small to support such growth without something radical happening such as a new and large employer. For sure, banks, the largest employer in finance, aren’t adding people except to do Dodd-Frank required compliance.
Guess what, guys, with the bench newly marked, as it were, the finance sector showed a gain of 300 jobs, or less than one percent, between January 2014 and January 2015.
The new numbers show professional and business services, considered a key proxy for national laboratory activity, showed 1,700 new jobs, year over year. Education and health services led the sector pack with 4,700 new jobs, or 3.7%, which was about 39% an (unlikely to me) of the year’s total job gain of 10,200 jobs.
Government dropped 1,200 jobs, 500 from the feds and 600 from local government. State government, buoyed by 1,100 new education jobs (in universities), lost just 100.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Abq Homes Sales Up 17 During February.
Pending sales provided the only news for February sales of single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque. February saw 921 homes move into the pending sales category, a 66 unit, or 8% increase from January. The performance beat February 2014 by 128 units or 16%.
The only other February happening was the sale of homes closing at a 2.5 home/day faster pace than during January. February sales averaged 19.8 homes/day as compared to January’s 17.3 homes/day. This daily activity meant that 554 homes closed during February, which was three days shorter than January, beat January by 17 homes or 3%.
The February 2015 homes closed performance of 554 homes edged January by four homes or 0.73%.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the February sales report today.
No only did more homes sell each day during February, they sold faster. Homes sold during January were on the market an average of 81 days. During February, homes took an average of 71 days to sell.
Nothing much happened to home prices during February.
The little that happened to prices during February happened to average prices which dropped 2.1% from January to $199,196. This was up $713 from February 2014. Median prices were $195,000, the same and February 2014 and down $500 from January 2015.
During January there were 855 sales pending. Almost two-thirds (65%) turned into closed sales during February. Some months show up to 89% of pending sales turning into closed sales.
The only other February happening was the sale of homes closing at a 2.5 home/day faster pace than during January. February sales averaged 19.8 homes/day as compared to January’s 17.3 homes/day. This daily activity meant that 554 homes closed during February, which was three days shorter than January, beat January by 17 homes or 3%.
The February 2015 homes closed performance of 554 homes edged January by four homes or 0.73%.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the February sales report today.
No only did more homes sell each day during February, they sold faster. Homes sold during January were on the market an average of 81 days. During February, homes took an average of 71 days to sell.
Nothing much happened to home prices during February.
The little that happened to prices during February happened to average prices which dropped 2.1% from January to $199,196. This was up $713 from February 2014. Median prices were $195,000, the same and February 2014 and down $500 from January 2015.
During January there were 855 sales pending. Almost two-thirds (65%) turned into closed sales during February. Some months show up to 89% of pending sales turning into closed sales.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Energy:The Dallas Fed View
From the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Released March 4. See http://www.dallasfed.org/research/beige/2015/bb150304.cfm
Energy:
"Demand for oilfield services fell sharply in the Eleventh District. Declines were concentrated in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford regions, and contacts reported a pullback in both horizontal and traditional vertical drilling. Outlooks remain pessimistic and uncertain, with firms expecting a roughly 30 percent decline in capital expenditures this year."
Energy:
"Demand for oilfield services fell sharply in the Eleventh District. Declines were concentrated in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford regions, and contacts reported a pullback in both horizontal and traditional vertical drilling. Outlooks remain pessimistic and uncertain, with firms expecting a roughly 30 percent decline in capital expenditures this year."
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Jobs Down From November, Up From December 2013
New Mexico added 13,500 wage jobs in the year from December 2013 to December 2014. Not quite the 14,700 jobs that appeared in the year ending in November, but not at all bad considering. The percentage growth was 1.7%.
The Department of Workforce Solutions, which released the figures today, points out that, “Between April and November 2014, job growth improved substantially (from -0.6 percent to 1.8 percent).” The real consideration goes back to the rule that not a trend does one data point make.
Give me an increase for January that remains in the vicinity of the 1.7% year over year growth and perhaps a victory proclamation can be issued. Until then…
Still, the news is not all jolly. New Mexico managed the second largest month over month job decline in December with 1,600 fewer jobs. Our percentage job loss in December (-0.2%) also tied for second with Delaware and Minnesota, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released numbers today.
In case you wondered, DWS in its release talked only about the year-over-year happiness and said nothing about the month-over-month losses.
Gosh.
Not only did we lose jobs between November and December, our unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in November to 6.1% in December. Interesting trick: Fewer jobs, lower unemployment rate.
More later.
The Department of Workforce Solutions, which released the figures today, points out that, “Between April and November 2014, job growth improved substantially (from -0.6 percent to 1.8 percent).” The real consideration goes back to the rule that not a trend does one data point make.
Give me an increase for January that remains in the vicinity of the 1.7% year over year growth and perhaps a victory proclamation can be issued. Until then…
Still, the news is not all jolly. New Mexico managed the second largest month over month job decline in December with 1,600 fewer jobs. Our percentage job loss in December (-0.2%) also tied for second with Delaware and Minnesota, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released numbers today.
In case you wondered, DWS in its release talked only about the year-over-year happiness and said nothing about the month-over-month losses.
Gosh.
Not only did we lose jobs between November and December, our unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in November to 6.1% in December. Interesting trick: Fewer jobs, lower unemployment rate.
More later.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Abq Homes Sales Up In December, Down For 2014
So much for seasonal behavior in the sales of metro Albuquerque single family detached homes. The presumption is that sales drop through January or February as the weather becomes colder or darker. But no, in December sales were 656 homes, a 55-home or nine percent increase from November’s sales of 601 homes. December sales were one more than December 2013 when 655 homes sold.
The 71 sales of condominiums and townhouses were 14 more than November, a 25% increase.
The December sales closed were 89% of November’s 738 pending sales. Those homes that closed sales were on the market an average of 71 days, up four days or six percent from November.
The average sales price for a detached home was $211,523 during December, down $8,386, or 3.8% from the year ago period. The average price also dropped from November with a $45,376 decline, or two percent.
December’s median sales price, $177,000, was up $2,000 from November but down $8,000 or 4.3% from December 2013.
Closed sales increased over the 2013 period for the third consecutive month while pending have been up, year over year, for four months. These increases follow months of year over year decline.
Counting both detached homes and townhouses and condos, closed sales were 9,254 during 2014, down 293 homes or three percent from 2013. Pending sales, 11,317 homes during 2014, were 1,631 units or 12.6% over 2013.
The Greater Albuquerque Board of Realtors released the December sales report yesterday. See gaar.com.
The 71 sales of condominiums and townhouses were 14 more than November, a 25% increase.
The December sales closed were 89% of November’s 738 pending sales. Those homes that closed sales were on the market an average of 71 days, up four days or six percent from November.
The average sales price for a detached home was $211,523 during December, down $8,386, or 3.8% from the year ago period. The average price also dropped from November with a $45,376 decline, or two percent.
December’s median sales price, $177,000, was up $2,000 from November but down $8,000 or 4.3% from December 2013.
Closed sales increased over the 2013 period for the third consecutive month while pending have been up, year over year, for four months. These increases follow months of year over year decline.
Counting both detached homes and townhouses and condos, closed sales were 9,254 during 2014, down 293 homes or three percent from 2013. Pending sales, 11,317 homes during 2014, were 1,631 units or 12.6% over 2013.
The Greater Albuquerque Board of Realtors released the December sales report yesterday. See gaar.com.
Friday, December 26, 2014
Turnaround Time? All Four Metros Gain Jobs Again
Turnaround time: All four of the metro areas showed job increases from November 2013 to November 2014. This followed all four metro areas gaining job between October 2013 and October 2014. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the figures around noon today. The metro areas growth rates were well below the statewide wage job increase of 1.7%, but at least the metros were in positive percentage territory. It’s been a while.
The state job growth ties for 24th with the District of Columbia, big jump from the performance earlier in the year when New Mexico was last and losing jobs, gaining the title of the nation’s worst economy. For the November to November year, Alaska was the biggest loser at minus 0.3 percent followed by Mississippi at minus 0.1.
The 2,900 new wage jobs in Albuquerque, DWS said, represent “the largest of only four months of year-over-year growth for Albuquerque over the last 15 months." Education and health services was the big Albuquerque gainer with 2,400 new jobs, year over year, accounting for 83% of the metro increase. Retail trade, with 1,000 new jobs, was the other big gainer. The losers continued performing down to expectations: Manufacturing (-600), professional and business services (-500), construction (-300).
Of the smaller metro areas, Farmington was the November to November champ with 500 new jobs. Las Cruces and Santa Fe both added 300 jobs.
Las Cruces was the only metro area showing a drop in government employment with a 400-job loss split among the state and the feds.
The state job growth ties for 24th with the District of Columbia, big jump from the performance earlier in the year when New Mexico was last and losing jobs, gaining the title of the nation’s worst economy. For the November to November year, Alaska was the biggest loser at minus 0.3 percent followed by Mississippi at minus 0.1.
The 2,900 new wage jobs in Albuquerque, DWS said, represent “the largest of only four months of year-over-year growth for Albuquerque over the last 15 months." Education and health services was the big Albuquerque gainer with 2,400 new jobs, year over year, accounting for 83% of the metro increase. Retail trade, with 1,000 new jobs, was the other big gainer. The losers continued performing down to expectations: Manufacturing (-600), professional and business services (-500), construction (-300).
Of the smaller metro areas, Farmington was the November to November champ with 500 new jobs. Las Cruces and Santa Fe both added 300 jobs.
Las Cruces was the only metro area showing a drop in government employment with a 400-job loss split among the state and the feds.
Friday, December 19, 2014
November Job Growth "Statistically Significant"
New Mexico scored “statistical significance” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for both the October to November job increase of 4,000 and the 14,700 job year-over-year improvement. Both figures are seasonally adjusted. The job report was released this morning.
Withdraw the seasonal adjusting and the job increases become 14,100 for the year, or 1.7%, and 3,600 for the month.
Among the larger and / or important sectors, education and health services added 6,100 jobs, year-over year, mining (+2,100), retail (+1,900), holiday hiring perhaps, and finance (+1,400).
For November, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.4%. Two counties hang in there with unemployment rates greater than 10%. They are Luna (16.2%) and Mora (13.2%). Three counties have unemployment rates under 4%. They are Eddy (3.6%), Lea (3.7%) and Los Alamos (3.8%).
Two key basic-industry sectors were the losers from November 2013 to November 2014. Manufacturing dropped 1,500 jobs and professional and business services lost 400. Government chipped in with 600 fewer jobs, a decline shared by the feds, the state and the locals.
The year-over-year seasonally unadjusted preliminary job growth rate the past six months have been: October (1.1%), September (0.8%), August (0.6%), July (0.5%), June (0.3%) and May (0.1%).
Observers of such things happily observe that the state’s job growth is approaching the long term average. That’s the good news. The bad news, the reality, is the mediocre long term average growth of two percent or so.
Withdraw the seasonal adjusting and the job increases become 14,100 for the year, or 1.7%, and 3,600 for the month.
Among the larger and / or important sectors, education and health services added 6,100 jobs, year-over year, mining (+2,100), retail (+1,900), holiday hiring perhaps, and finance (+1,400).
For November, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.4%. Two counties hang in there with unemployment rates greater than 10%. They are Luna (16.2%) and Mora (13.2%). Three counties have unemployment rates under 4%. They are Eddy (3.6%), Lea (3.7%) and Los Alamos (3.8%).
Two key basic-industry sectors were the losers from November 2013 to November 2014. Manufacturing dropped 1,500 jobs and professional and business services lost 400. Government chipped in with 600 fewer jobs, a decline shared by the feds, the state and the locals.
The year-over-year seasonally unadjusted preliminary job growth rate the past six months have been: October (1.1%), September (0.8%), August (0.6%), July (0.5%), June (0.3%) and May (0.1%).
Observers of such things happily observe that the state’s job growth is approaching the long term average. That’s the good news. The bad news, the reality, is the mediocre long term average growth of two percent or so.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Something New: All 4 Metros Add Jobs
The state’s four metro areas, all of them, added wage jobs during the year between October 2013 and October 2014, the Department of workforce Solutions reported yesterday.
The number of new jobs wasn’t large, just 1,200 among Albuquerque (+300), Las Cruces (+200), Santa Fe (+100) and Farmington (+600). Only Farmington managed a percentage increase above one with 1.2% growth. Hanging below a half percent were Albuquerque (+0.1%), Las Cruces (+0.3%) and Santa Fe (0.2%). For all four metros, job growth between September and October brought the area into positive job growth for the year.
Such tiny increases might conceal a rounding error or a figure within the job survey’s margin of error.
Still, it’s been a long time, memory says, since all four metros grew on a year-over-year basis.
The national economic performance may provide the best news for the state. That’s because the nation drives much of what happens in the state. During the third quarter, the gross domestic product grew at a 3.9% annual rate. Digging into the national performance, media wizards at the Wall Street Journal find no excitement, but a 2% plus growth rate provide little basis for real complaint.
The metro performance for the year meant the rural counties didn’t have to make up for metro losses to post a statewide increase, which was 9,100-jobs. The 26 rural counties added 7,900 jobs during the year.
New Mexico tied Idaho for 34th place among the states in job production performance. Alaska was the only state losing jobs during the year. New Mexico’s four neighboring states all finished in the top ten for job growth percentage. Texas was 2nd; Utah 3rd; Arizona 8th, and Colorado 9th.
Albuquerque’s growth came with education and health services (+1,800), aided by small increases in five sectors, offsetting losses in manufacturing (-1,000), construction (-700), leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and wholesale trade.
In Las Cruces, education and health services and professional and business services together brought 700 new jobs. Six sectors showed no growth in Santa Fe with the rest either up a bit or down a bit.
The number of new jobs wasn’t large, just 1,200 among Albuquerque (+300), Las Cruces (+200), Santa Fe (+100) and Farmington (+600). Only Farmington managed a percentage increase above one with 1.2% growth. Hanging below a half percent were Albuquerque (+0.1%), Las Cruces (+0.3%) and Santa Fe (0.2%). For all four metros, job growth between September and October brought the area into positive job growth for the year.
Such tiny increases might conceal a rounding error or a figure within the job survey’s margin of error.
Still, it’s been a long time, memory says, since all four metros grew on a year-over-year basis.
The national economic performance may provide the best news for the state. That’s because the nation drives much of what happens in the state. During the third quarter, the gross domestic product grew at a 3.9% annual rate. Digging into the national performance, media wizards at the Wall Street Journal find no excitement, but a 2% plus growth rate provide little basis for real complaint.
The metro performance for the year meant the rural counties didn’t have to make up for metro losses to post a statewide increase, which was 9,100-jobs. The 26 rural counties added 7,900 jobs during the year.
New Mexico tied Idaho for 34th place among the states in job production performance. Alaska was the only state losing jobs during the year. New Mexico’s four neighboring states all finished in the top ten for job growth percentage. Texas was 2nd; Utah 3rd; Arizona 8th, and Colorado 9th.
Albuquerque’s growth came with education and health services (+1,800), aided by small increases in five sectors, offsetting losses in manufacturing (-1,000), construction (-700), leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and wholesale trade.
In Las Cruces, education and health services and professional and business services together brought 700 new jobs. Six sectors showed no growth in Santa Fe with the rest either up a bit or down a bit.
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