Economic recovery in New Mexico, such as it is, is uneven, according to figures released yesterday from the Department of Workforce Solutions.
Farmington (+2,200 wage jobs, +4.3%) and Albuquerque (+7,000 jobs, +1.9%) were the winners in the year from April 2014 to April 2015. Santa Fe lost 200 jobs, or -0.7%, for year. Las Cruces was down 200, or -0.3%. The jobs figures are not seasonally adjusted.
As reported previously, the state added 12,600 jobs, year over year. Albuquerque and Farmington accounted for 73% of the new jobs.
Albuquerque’s leading employment sectors were leisure and hospitality and professional and business services, both with 2,000 new jobs. Education and health services followed with 1,700 new jobs. Government added 800 new Albuquerque jobs, split among federal, 100; state, 400; and local 300.
Of the Farmington jobs, 1,900 were in the private sector. DWS does not provide additional Farmington detail.
Education and health services added the most jobs in Las Cruces (+500) and Santa Fe (+300).
In the new issue of its Labor Market Review newsletter, DWS provided a commendable look at the state’s long-term unemployed. The term refers to those unemployed people without a job for 27 weeks or more. We were second nationally with 44.9% long term unemployed in 2014, after only Washington, D.C.
To be counted as unemployed, one must be seeking a job. The long term unemployed figure leaves out those who have dropped from the labor force. We are in the bottom five (or so) in labor force participation.
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
1.5% Job Growth Continues
During April, the New Mexico economy stuck with the 1.5% year-over-year wage job growth rate that appeared in March. April brought 12,600 new jobs over April 2014.
The curious part is that 37%, or 4,900, of the new jobs are in the education and health services sector. The Department of Workforce Solutions did not explain this situation in today’s news release. But this sector depends on others for its business, so something unusual is happening. Medicaid?
Growth came to sectors that are part of the base economy grew including Leisure and hospitality, 2,700; Professional and business services, 1,900; information, 300; manufacturing, 200; and mining, 300. The latter sector’s growth is the slowest since April 2010, the DWS release said, reflecting the slowing in oil deveopment.
The curious part is that 37%, or 4,900, of the new jobs are in the education and health services sector. The Department of Workforce Solutions did not explain this situation in today’s news release. But this sector depends on others for its business, so something unusual is happening. Medicaid?
Growth came to sectors that are part of the base economy grew including Leisure and hospitality, 2,700; Professional and business services, 1,900; information, 300; manufacturing, 200; and mining, 300. The latter sector’s growth is the slowest since April 2010, the DWS release said, reflecting the slowing in oil deveopment.
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Highway Money Short; Cutting Spending Not Considered
The April 30 Albuquerque Journal Up Front column was an interesting exercise for who responded and what was said and not said. The Journal's editorial page editor Dan Herrera asked civic leaders (by his definition) "to name something Albuquerque does right." No respondent represented a business. Only one mentioned anything close to earning a living. That was the small construction firms comment from the Abq Academy headmaster who gets lots of tuition money from private sector people and Labs types doing science. Science wasn’t mentioned. The first item listed was the Sandia Mountains, that by Cathy Winograd.
So we are aesthetic without worries about economics.
May 1 saw the Journal run a long story by Olivier Uyttebrouck looking at paying for New Mexico's highways. The story mentioned the right things, so far as it went. It said the amount of money is flat, a big piece is used to repay borrowing and one of the pressures comes from more efficient autos using less gas.
Toll roads, which might be a source of money, were not mentioned. More important was the continued (continued by everyone who seems to consider the highway finance issue) ignoring of considering how we spend our money and can we spend less. Not to belabor the obvious—not much—but any organization that lacks income need to consider spending less.
So we are aesthetic without worries about economics.
May 1 saw the Journal run a long story by Olivier Uyttebrouck looking at paying for New Mexico's highways. The story mentioned the right things, so far as it went. It said the amount of money is flat, a big piece is used to repay borrowing and one of the pressures comes from more efficient autos using less gas.
Toll roads, which might be a source of money, were not mentioned. More important was the continued (continued by everyone who seems to consider the highway finance issue) ignoring of considering how we spend our money and can we spend less. Not to belabor the obvious—not much—but any organization that lacks income need to consider spending less.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Job Growth is 1.6% in March
New Mexico seems to have settled in on a year-over-year wage job growth rate of 1.5% plus. For the March 2014 to March 2015 year, it was 1.6%, or 13,000 jobs statewide, according to figures released today by the Department of Workforce Services and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
By percentage, business and professional led the growth at 3.8% (3,700 jobs), followed by leisure and hospitality, 3.6% (3,200 jobs), and education and health services, 3.5% (4,400 jobs).
Growth is slower in the oil counties of Lea and Eddy, but the job growth continues.
By percentage, business and professional led the growth at 3.8% (3,700 jobs), followed by leisure and hospitality, 3.6% (3,200 jobs), and education and health services, 3.5% (4,400 jobs).
Growth is slower in the oil counties of Lea and Eddy, but the job growth continues.
Saturday, April 11, 2015
The New Hampshire Presidential Campaign
New Hampshire correspondent Kathy Morgan has called attention a continuing feature at WMUR TV in Manchester, New Hampshire. The feature is a series of conversations with actual and potential presidential candidates. A few days ago it was Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. The format is a half hour in two segments, one an interview by the anchor, the other questions from the audience. A “web feature” follows. Go to http://www.wmur.com/politics.
There is enough time and the format is sufficiently relaxed to get acquainted with the individual.
Also, one finds the newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader, at http://www.unionleader.com.
It seems that for the 2016 race, technology will bring us in the fly-over hinterland a chance to make a more intelligent choice.
If you see a worthy candidate on WMUR,options for active support would seem to be sending money and/or calling the respective New Mexico party headquarters to find the NM contact.
Our correspondent is ably assisted by Christopher Phelps Johnson, age five months, one day, as of this writing.
There is enough time and the format is sufficiently relaxed to get acquainted with the individual.
Also, one finds the newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader, at http://www.unionleader.com.
It seems that for the 2016 race, technology will bring us in the fly-over hinterland a chance to make a more intelligent choice.
If you see a worthy candidate on WMUR,options for active support would seem to be sending money and/or calling the respective New Mexico party headquarters to find the NM contact.
Our correspondent is ably assisted by Christopher Phelps Johnson, age five months, one day, as of this writing.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Abq Homes Sale Up 19% from March 2014
More homes sold in metro Albuquerque for more money than in months and months, according to the March sales report released today by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
March closed sales of 827 single family detached homes were 49%, or 273 homes, more than February (March does have three more selling days than February) and 19% more than March 2014. The March sales were the highest since the sale of 857 homes closed during August 2013.
During March the number of pending sales jumped 20% from February to 1,102 and showed a 16% increase over February 2014. February pending sales also increased 16% over the previous year. Of the 921 pending sales during February, 90% turned into closed sales during March.
Average prices increased 5.5% during March to $210,069, pushed along by the sale closing for four homes in the $1 million-plus category. Sales increased in 10 of the 12 price groups about the $100,000 threshold. Sales were the same as March at 21 homes in the $500,000 - $749,000 group and dropped one—from three to two—in the $750,000 to $999,000 group.
The median price increased $6,000, or 4%, to $175,000 during March. The $175,000 median price is the highest March median since 2010.
The absorption rate has been below 5.5 months since December, indicating a better than average market. The supply-demand ration has dropped by half to 3.33 since December, meaning a tightening of supply relative to demand.
March closed sales of 827 single family detached homes were 49%, or 273 homes, more than February (March does have three more selling days than February) and 19% more than March 2014. The March sales were the highest since the sale of 857 homes closed during August 2013.
During March the number of pending sales jumped 20% from February to 1,102 and showed a 16% increase over February 2014. February pending sales also increased 16% over the previous year. Of the 921 pending sales during February, 90% turned into closed sales during March.
Average prices increased 5.5% during March to $210,069, pushed along by the sale closing for four homes in the $1 million-plus category. Sales increased in 10 of the 12 price groups about the $100,000 threshold. Sales were the same as March at 21 homes in the $500,000 - $749,000 group and dropped one—from three to two—in the $750,000 to $999,000 group.
The median price increased $6,000, or 4%, to $175,000 during March. The $175,000 median price is the highest March median since 2010.
The absorption rate has been below 5.5 months since December, indicating a better than average market. The supply-demand ration has dropped by half to 3.33 since December, meaning a tightening of supply relative to demand.
Friday, April 3, 2015
State Job Improvement Continues
The statistically re-benchmarked performance of the New Mexico economy continues, according to the new Labor Market Review newsletter released today, April 3, by the Department of Workforce Solutions.
The best news is in Albuquerque and Farmington. For the year between February 2014 and February 2015, 15,900 new wage jobs appeared on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The number of wage jobs increased 10,400 between January and February.
Albuquerque led the metro pack with 6,700 jobs, year over year. That was a net of 7,100 private sector jobs and a loss 400 government jobs with state government gains of 400 offsetting local government losing 700 jobs.
Farmington was the other big metro winner with 2,800 new wage jobs over the year, 2,500 of them in the private sectors.
Santa Fe didn’t badly with 1,100 new jobs even with the loss of 400 construction jobs.
Nothing much happened in Las Cruces during the year. The metro lost 200 jobs, split between the private guys and government.
Statewide and in Albuquerque the sectors with the biggest job growth were professional and business services, education and health services and leisure and hospitality. In Albuquerque, the three sectors added 6,100 jobs, year over year. Statewide the three added 10,400 jobs.
All these figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The best news is in Albuquerque and Farmington. For the year between February 2014 and February 2015, 15,900 new wage jobs appeared on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The number of wage jobs increased 10,400 between January and February.
Albuquerque led the metro pack with 6,700 jobs, year over year. That was a net of 7,100 private sector jobs and a loss 400 government jobs with state government gains of 400 offsetting local government losing 700 jobs.
Farmington was the other big metro winner with 2,800 new wage jobs over the year, 2,500 of them in the private sectors.
Santa Fe didn’t badly with 1,100 new jobs even with the loss of 400 construction jobs.
Nothing much happened in Las Cruces during the year. The metro lost 200 jobs, split between the private guys and government.
Statewide and in Albuquerque the sectors with the biggest job growth were professional and business services, education and health services and leisure and hospitality. In Albuquerque, the three sectors added 6,100 jobs, year over year. Statewide the three added 10,400 jobs.
All these figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Job Growth “Statistically Significant”
Those 10,200 new jobs mentioned yesterday as appearing between January 2014 and January 2015 were not seasonally adjusted. I forgot to mention that. I also forgot to say that between December and January, the seasonally unadjusted figures show a loss of 16,500 jobs. That’s a lot. Not explanation from DWS.
In its release yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics listed New Mexico’s 12,900 seasonally adjusted new jobs, year over year, as being statistically significant, that means the jobs are real, maybe. The seasonally adjusted change between December and January was an increase of 1,500, a shift of 18,000 from the unadjusted figure, or, quite an adjustment.
In its release yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics listed New Mexico’s 12,900 seasonally adjusted new jobs, year over year, as being statistically significant, that means the jobs are real, maybe. The seasonally adjusted change between December and January was an increase of 1,500, a shift of 18,000 from the unadjusted figure, or, quite an adjustment.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Statistical Shuffle Improves Job Picture
Everything that was said about job performance and non-performance in New Mexico was wrong. Or at least all that stuff about months and months of job losses is out of date now. That’s because the federal Bureau of Labors Statistics and New Mexico’s Department of Workforce Solutions changes the rules once each year.
DWS in its March 17 release “explained” the changes this way. “Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics realigns the sample-based estimates of the CES survey to incorporate universe counts of employment—a process known as benchmarking.”
As an example of the changes, readers may remember the year over year changes in the finance sector of well over 1,000 jobs. When this “growth” was reported each month, the report here came with skeptical note. The problem, as I see it, is that the sector is too small to support such growth without something radical happening such as a new and large employer. For sure, banks, the largest employer in finance, aren’t adding people except to do Dodd-Frank required compliance.
Guess what, guys, with the bench newly marked, as it were, the finance sector showed a gain of 300 jobs, or less than one percent, between January 2014 and January 2015.
The new numbers show professional and business services, considered a key proxy for national laboratory activity, showed 1,700 new jobs, year over year. Education and health services led the sector pack with 4,700 new jobs, or 3.7%, which was about 39% an (unlikely to me) of the year’s total job gain of 10,200 jobs.
Government dropped 1,200 jobs, 500 from the feds and 600 from local government. State government, buoyed by 1,100 new education jobs (in universities), lost just 100.
DWS in its March 17 release “explained” the changes this way. “Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics realigns the sample-based estimates of the CES survey to incorporate universe counts of employment—a process known as benchmarking.”
As an example of the changes, readers may remember the year over year changes in the finance sector of well over 1,000 jobs. When this “growth” was reported each month, the report here came with skeptical note. The problem, as I see it, is that the sector is too small to support such growth without something radical happening such as a new and large employer. For sure, banks, the largest employer in finance, aren’t adding people except to do Dodd-Frank required compliance.
Guess what, guys, with the bench newly marked, as it were, the finance sector showed a gain of 300 jobs, or less than one percent, between January 2014 and January 2015.
The new numbers show professional and business services, considered a key proxy for national laboratory activity, showed 1,700 new jobs, year over year. Education and health services led the sector pack with 4,700 new jobs, or 3.7%, which was about 39% an (unlikely to me) of the year’s total job gain of 10,200 jobs.
Government dropped 1,200 jobs, 500 from the feds and 600 from local government. State government, buoyed by 1,100 new education jobs (in universities), lost just 100.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Clinton Email Logistics Are Confusing
I do not understand the logistics of the emails. Mrs. Clinton was Secretary of State for approximately 1,461 days (the years 2010, 2011, 2012 plus ten months of 2009 and two months of 2013). The 31,830 private emails averaged 21.8/day, plus nearly that many for business. Call it 40 total/day. Assume Mrs. Clinton sleeps four hours/day, leaving 20 hours for everything else including emails (at an average of two emails/hour all day every day) and meetings with foreign ministers. Some of the business emails would have been complicated and would have required some thought and some time—multiple drafts and staff debate—in creating the reply. To be sure, threads with multiple emails would account for some of the total, but how many? I presume that Mrs. Clinton was not the person at the keyboard entering the reply. (Does she type?)
From my perch in the wilds of New Mexico, it appears that she had to have some help in managing this process. How did that work? What was the decision process with regard to eliminating the personal emails? Highlight all and hit delete?
From my perch in the wilds of New Mexico, it appears that she had to have some help in managing this process. How did that work? What was the decision process with regard to eliminating the personal emails? Highlight all and hit delete?
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Abq Homes Sales Up 17 During February.
Pending sales provided the only news for February sales of single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque. February saw 921 homes move into the pending sales category, a 66 unit, or 8% increase from January. The performance beat February 2014 by 128 units or 16%.
The only other February happening was the sale of homes closing at a 2.5 home/day faster pace than during January. February sales averaged 19.8 homes/day as compared to January’s 17.3 homes/day. This daily activity meant that 554 homes closed during February, which was three days shorter than January, beat January by 17 homes or 3%.
The February 2015 homes closed performance of 554 homes edged January by four homes or 0.73%.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the February sales report today.
No only did more homes sell each day during February, they sold faster. Homes sold during January were on the market an average of 81 days. During February, homes took an average of 71 days to sell.
Nothing much happened to home prices during February.
The little that happened to prices during February happened to average prices which dropped 2.1% from January to $199,196. This was up $713 from February 2014. Median prices were $195,000, the same and February 2014 and down $500 from January 2015.
During January there were 855 sales pending. Almost two-thirds (65%) turned into closed sales during February. Some months show up to 89% of pending sales turning into closed sales.
The only other February happening was the sale of homes closing at a 2.5 home/day faster pace than during January. February sales averaged 19.8 homes/day as compared to January’s 17.3 homes/day. This daily activity meant that 554 homes closed during February, which was three days shorter than January, beat January by 17 homes or 3%.
The February 2015 homes closed performance of 554 homes edged January by four homes or 0.73%.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the February sales report today.
No only did more homes sell each day during February, they sold faster. Homes sold during January were on the market an average of 81 days. During February, homes took an average of 71 days to sell.
Nothing much happened to home prices during February.
The little that happened to prices during February happened to average prices which dropped 2.1% from January to $199,196. This was up $713 from February 2014. Median prices were $195,000, the same and February 2014 and down $500 from January 2015.
During January there were 855 sales pending. Almost two-thirds (65%) turned into closed sales during February. Some months show up to 89% of pending sales turning into closed sales.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Energy:The Dallas Fed View
From the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Released March 4. See http://www.dallasfed.org/research/beige/2015/bb150304.cfm
Energy:
"Demand for oilfield services fell sharply in the Eleventh District. Declines were concentrated in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford regions, and contacts reported a pullback in both horizontal and traditional vertical drilling. Outlooks remain pessimistic and uncertain, with firms expecting a roughly 30 percent decline in capital expenditures this year."
Energy:
"Demand for oilfield services fell sharply in the Eleventh District. Declines were concentrated in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford regions, and contacts reported a pullback in both horizontal and traditional vertical drilling. Outlooks remain pessimistic and uncertain, with firms expecting a roughly 30 percent decline in capital expenditures this year."
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Nusenda Doesn’t Send(a) Me
Effective Monday (2/9) or Tuesday (2/10), Nusenda is the new name for New Mexico Educators Federal Credit Union. NMEFCU has been my “bank” for 18 years. A long time ago I went through a financial institution name change. It was mostly done right.
What the hell is Nusenda? The Albuquerque Journal story this morning said the credit union used a consultant. Probably it was the same guy who invented Bank 34 in Alamogordo.
My name change experience was the move of Albuquerque National Bank and ten others (I think it was ten) into being Sunwest Bank. As an ANB / Sunwest employee, I handled the public relations on the name change. Pre-internet, the logistics of getting the information around the state were complex. But we got it done.
While “sunwest” really doesn’t mean anything, it sounds like it does. These are words people know. Nusenda is, well, nusenda.
The Sunwest change took effect on a Monday. It was announced over the weekend by what was then the state’s largest single advertising campaign. By Monday morning customer consciousness of Albuquerque National Bank of obliterated.
Nusenda just appeared. We first heard of it when my wife drove by the Uptown office on Tuesday (2/10). That may hav been the effective day. Why a day in the middle of the week? There may have been an email, but it went to our spam file. We have seen no advertising. Today’s Journal story reported the change and had people making fun of the change. Translated, NMEFCU let others control the story. That’s just stupid.
What the hell is Nusenda? The Albuquerque Journal story this morning said the credit union used a consultant. Probably it was the same guy who invented Bank 34 in Alamogordo.
My name change experience was the move of Albuquerque National Bank and ten others (I think it was ten) into being Sunwest Bank. As an ANB / Sunwest employee, I handled the public relations on the name change. Pre-internet, the logistics of getting the information around the state were complex. But we got it done.
While “sunwest” really doesn’t mean anything, it sounds like it does. These are words people know. Nusenda is, well, nusenda.
The Sunwest change took effect on a Monday. It was announced over the weekend by what was then the state’s largest single advertising campaign. By Monday morning customer consciousness of Albuquerque National Bank of obliterated.
Nusenda just appeared. We first heard of it when my wife drove by the Uptown office on Tuesday (2/10). That may hav been the effective day. Why a day in the middle of the week? There may have been an email, but it went to our spam file. We have seen no advertising. Today’s Journal story reported the change and had people making fun of the change. Translated, NMEFCU let others control the story. That’s just stupid.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
January Real Estate Follows 2014 Pattern
For the metro Albuquerque real estate market, 2015 has started just like 2014.
The 537 sales of single family homes closed during January were down 119 units, or 18%, from December and essentially the same as the 539 sales closed during January 2014. The 855 homes with a sale pending during January jumped a resounding 32% from December. The January 2014 number of pending sales—769—was up 137 from December 2013.
The difference between the two years suggests a brighter future for 2015 as compared to 2014. That’s because those 855 sales pending during January 2015 showed an 86-unit, or 11.2%, increase from a year ago. Given that closed sales in one month have a rough relationship to sales pending during the previous month, the sales closed this month may well do better than the 550 sales closed during February 2014 which was an 11-unit increase from January.
The January closed sales took a while. They were on the market for an average of days 81 days, ten days more than December and the second longest sales period of the past two years, behind only the 83-day average of February 2014.
During January the median sales price was $169,500 and the average price was $203,468. The January prices were essentially the same as January 2013 and down about four percent from December.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the January sales report yesterday.
The 537 sales of single family homes closed during January were down 119 units, or 18%, from December and essentially the same as the 539 sales closed during January 2014. The 855 homes with a sale pending during January jumped a resounding 32% from December. The January 2014 number of pending sales—769—was up 137 from December 2013.
The difference between the two years suggests a brighter future for 2015 as compared to 2014. That’s because those 855 sales pending during January 2015 showed an 86-unit, or 11.2%, increase from a year ago. Given that closed sales in one month have a rough relationship to sales pending during the previous month, the sales closed this month may well do better than the 550 sales closed during February 2014 which was an 11-unit increase from January.
The January closed sales took a while. They were on the market for an average of days 81 days, ten days more than December and the second longest sales period of the past two years, behind only the 83-day average of February 2014.
During January the median sales price was $169,500 and the average price was $203,468. The January prices were essentially the same as January 2013 and down about four percent from December.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the January sales report yesterday.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Another Reason For Skipping School Elections: Distance to the Polls
To the list of rational reasons for not voting in school board elections, add distance to the polling place. After consulting its collective wisdom, the Chaves County Commission put the one polling place for the Hagerman school district in Roswell. That’s 26 miles away. Hagerman is south and a bit east of Roswell on N.M. 2. The three board candidates were unopposed, so not even the candidates voted. No one else voted either.
The distance problem hadn’t occurred to me. But then my near-UNM polling place is a three-minute drive from my house.
The Hagerman powers-that-be have figured a work-around. The existing board will appoint the three candidates to the vacant positions.
The Albuquerque Journal has noticed the Hagerman situation along with the miniscule turnout in Albuquerque and called for changing the time of school elections. Duh.
The distance problem hadn’t occurred to me. But then my near-UNM polling place is a three-minute drive from my house.
The Hagerman powers-that-be have figured a work-around. The existing board will appoint the three candidates to the vacant positions.
The Albuquerque Journal has noticed the Hagerman situation along with the miniscule turnout in Albuquerque and called for changing the time of school elections. Duh.
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