People have quit coming to New Mexico except via being born. Pretty much, anyway.
Yesterday the Census Bureau gave us a year-end present of state population estimates for July 1, 2013. New Mexico’s population is 2,085,287 as of July 1, 2013, the bureau estimates. That’s up a miniscule 1,747 from a year earlier. The percent increase was 0.084 percent. For the decimal challenged, that means less than one tenth of one percent.
The figure nets everything—births, deaths, people moving here, people leaving.
That percentage increase was a third of the percent growth from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012, which, in turn, was less than half of 0.62 percent increase from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011.
That we had population growth from 2011 to 2012 was due to more babies appearing than people dying. The real significance is in the migration figures. For the new estimates, the bureau won’t have details for a few weeks. Considering the 2012 details suggests what we will see more births than deaths and more people (grownups, I presume) leaving the state for other places in the U.S. and few people coming from outside the country.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013
UP Makes WSJ
A Wall Street Journal article about the performance of the national economy mentioned just one industrial project. The article was in the Saturday/Sunday, December 21 – 22, 2013, edition. The headline said, “U.S. Economy Starts to Gain Momentum.”
The mentioned project is in New Mexico. It is Union Pacific’s “2,200-acre facility in New Mexico, a project expected to cost about $400 million.”
Governor Susana Martinez sometimes mentions the project as being a good thing, but it seems mostly forgotten north of Truth or Consequences.
More important, the facility creates a gateway to Mexico at Santa Teresa, where amazing things are happening.
Putting it another way, the national big-time business publication surveyed the nation’s economy and found just one specific project worth mention, the UP facility five miles northwest of Santa Teresa. That means to me that the project is a very big deal. Well, duh.
The mentioned project is in New Mexico. It is Union Pacific’s “2,200-acre facility in New Mexico, a project expected to cost about $400 million.”
Governor Susana Martinez sometimes mentions the project as being a good thing, but it seems mostly forgotten north of Truth or Consequences.
More important, the facility creates a gateway to Mexico at Santa Teresa, where amazing things are happening.
Putting it another way, the national big-time business publication surveyed the nation’s economy and found just one specific project worth mention, the UP facility five miles northwest of Santa Teresa. That means to me that the project is a very big deal. Well, duh.
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Source For Wertheim Column
An essay about paternalism provided the anchor for next week’s column. It came via http://www.aldaily.com which means arts and letters daily. Aldaily prints very short excerpts from articles, book reviews and essays and provides the link. The little introductions open intellectual doors that I could never hope to find, much less open.
The following drew me to the paternalism piece. “The new paternalism is so nonconfrontational, anti-ideological, and unwilling to claim moral authority that it can hardly be called “paternal.” Let’s call it “maternalism”... more»”
Find the article at http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the_triumph_of_the_maternalists/14346#.UquBDqUw2pd. The publication is spiked.com, which calls itself, “Britain’s first online-only current-affairs mag, spiked is a metaphorical missile against misanthropy.” Nancy McDermott was the writer.
The following drew me to the paternalism piece. “The new paternalism is so nonconfrontational, anti-ideological, and unwilling to claim moral authority that it can hardly be called “paternal.” Let’s call it “maternalism”... more»”
Find the article at http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the_triumph_of_the_maternalists/14346#.UquBDqUw2pd. The publication is spiked.com, which calls itself, “Britain’s first online-only current-affairs mag, spiked is a metaphorical missile against misanthropy.” Nancy McDermott was the writer.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Abq Pending Home Sales Drop Again
The 566 sales of single family detached homes closed during November represented a 22%, or 157 unit decline from the 723 homes sold during October. In turn, the October performance was down 6% from September. The performance appears to be seasonal—sales traditionally drop from the summer going into the fall and don’t pick up until maybe March.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the November sales report late this afternoon.
The cloud comes in the number of pending sales, down for three of the past four months on a year over year comparison and down 4% in November to 729 units from 762 in October. Pending sales have been dropping on a month to month basis since peaking for the year at 1,280 in April. July is the most recent month showing a healthy year over year increase in pending sales.
A slowing in the robust recovery of the metro Albuquerque real estate market? Hmmmm…
Another possible sign is that 74% of the 762 sales pending during October turned into closed sales during November. That was down from 81% of September’s 889 pending sales closing during October.
The homes that sell are selling fairly quickly. The average days on market, 60 during July and August, was 61 days during November, down one day from 62 during October.
Median and average sales prices during November showed no interest in rebounding to the 2013 highs reached in August of $182,500 for the median and $223,533 for the average. For November the median was $170,000, up two percent from October. The average, $207,986, was down slightly from October. The November average was pushed by two sales of homes priced at $1 million or more and six sales of homes in the $750,000 to $999,000 category.
The median and average sales prices were both up from November 2012. The median increased three percent, the average 1.6%.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the November sales report late this afternoon.
The cloud comes in the number of pending sales, down for three of the past four months on a year over year comparison and down 4% in November to 729 units from 762 in October. Pending sales have been dropping on a month to month basis since peaking for the year at 1,280 in April. July is the most recent month showing a healthy year over year increase in pending sales.
A slowing in the robust recovery of the metro Albuquerque real estate market? Hmmmm…
Another possible sign is that 74% of the 762 sales pending during October turned into closed sales during November. That was down from 81% of September’s 889 pending sales closing during October.
The homes that sell are selling fairly quickly. The average days on market, 60 during July and August, was 61 days during November, down one day from 62 during October.
Median and average sales prices during November showed no interest in rebounding to the 2013 highs reached in August of $182,500 for the median and $223,533 for the average. For November the median was $170,000, up two percent from October. The average, $207,986, was down slightly from October. The November average was pushed by two sales of homes priced at $1 million or more and six sales of homes in the $750,000 to $999,000 category.
The median and average sales prices were both up from November 2012. The median increased three percent, the average 1.6%.
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Albuquerque, Santa Fe Add Jobs, Other Metros, Rural Counties Lose
Metro Albuquerque added 2,000 wage jobs during the year from October 2012 through October 2013. The percentage gain was a poor 0.5%. But given that the entire state added 1,900 jobs, that means everywhere outside the Duke City lost a net of 100 jobs. Throw in that Santa Fe gained 200 jobs, then outside the north central urban area, the state lost 300 jobs.
This performance reverses what seem to have been happening for a long time. I haven’t kept a chart, but that is my perception. The numbers were release yesterday by the Department of Workforce Services.
The Farmington and Las Cruces metro areas, respectively San Juan and Dona Ana counties, reported no change in wage job totals for the period.
The Albuquerque gains included 600 more government jobs over the year, 700 in local government 500 in state, minus 600 fewer federal jobs. Santa Fe, Las Cruces and Farmington lost, between them, 500 government jobs, all of them federal. On balance, then, Albuquerque won the state government jobs and rural counties lost the local government jobs.
The financial sector was the big winner statewide with 3,000 more jobs over the year, a 9% increase that continues the sector's strong growth of the past several months. I have figured this increase had something to do with real estate, namely improved home sales. Doubt emerges because the three metros (excluding Farmington which doesn’t report sector numbers) showed only 300 more financial jobs for the year. The additional real estate jobs will be in the metro areas, I think.
On another note, a study released yesterday by George Mason University and reported in Albuquerque Business First, the business weekly, says that New Mexico has the nation’s weakest “real private economy” as defined by percentage of jobs that have nothing to do with the government, or something like that.
Such analysis continues to dismiss that we are, uniquely, who we are, invoking cliches here, with the labs, White Sands, NASA's Fort Sumner balloon operation and the 50-employee USGS Abq-based operation that monitors tectonic movement, and ignores the reality that government spending goes up and down, just like private sector spending.
This performance reverses what seem to have been happening for a long time. I haven’t kept a chart, but that is my perception. The numbers were release yesterday by the Department of Workforce Services.
The Farmington and Las Cruces metro areas, respectively San Juan and Dona Ana counties, reported no change in wage job totals for the period.
The Albuquerque gains included 600 more government jobs over the year, 700 in local government 500 in state, minus 600 fewer federal jobs. Santa Fe, Las Cruces and Farmington lost, between them, 500 government jobs, all of them federal. On balance, then, Albuquerque won the state government jobs and rural counties lost the local government jobs.
The financial sector was the big winner statewide with 3,000 more jobs over the year, a 9% increase that continues the sector's strong growth of the past several months. I have figured this increase had something to do with real estate, namely improved home sales. Doubt emerges because the three metros (excluding Farmington which doesn’t report sector numbers) showed only 300 more financial jobs for the year. The additional real estate jobs will be in the metro areas, I think.
On another note, a study released yesterday by George Mason University and reported in Albuquerque Business First, the business weekly, says that New Mexico has the nation’s weakest “real private economy” as defined by percentage of jobs that have nothing to do with the government, or something like that.
Such analysis continues to dismiss that we are, uniquely, who we are, invoking cliches here, with the labs, White Sands, NASA's Fort Sumner balloon operation and the 50-employee USGS Abq-based operation that monitors tectonic movement, and ignores the reality that government spending goes up and down, just like private sector spending.
Friday, November 22, 2013
October Job Growth 28% of August, Still Positive
New Mexico added 1,900 wage jobs between October 2012 and October 2013, according to figures released November 22 by the Department of Workforce Services. That growth is 28% of the 6,900 added between August 2012 and August 2013, the last figures issued. September was a federal sequester skip.
The 1,900 jobs are a net of 5,000 new private sector jobs and 3,100 fewer government jobs, year over year. Local government, the largest government sector, led the losses, down 1,600. The federal job total dropped 1,500, a 4.8% decline for the year, to a wage job total of 29,600. State government employment held at 60,600.
Manufacturing took the biggest percentage hit in the private sector with a 900-job, or 3%, year-over-year decline. In August, manufacturing showed an 800 job year-over-year loss. Education and health services, which hardly ever loses jobs and has four times manufacturing’s employment of 29,300, lost 1,100 jobs.
While the reflex is to call the financial services sector “small,” it employs more than the critical “basic economy” sectors of mining, manufacturing and information. The sector continues to boom, adding 900 wage jobs, or 9%, for a total of 36,100.
Leisure and hospital growth remained health with 2,200 new jobs over the year. The growth is down, though, from August when 4,900 jobs were added.
Employment (different from wage jobs) grew a little in the state’s four metro areas, Albuquerque, Farmington, Las Cruces and Santa Fe, but remains well below a year ago.
None of the New Mexico job changes were considered a big enough deal to be called statistically significant by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov), which also released figures November 22.
The 1,900 jobs are a net of 5,000 new private sector jobs and 3,100 fewer government jobs, year over year. Local government, the largest government sector, led the losses, down 1,600. The federal job total dropped 1,500, a 4.8% decline for the year, to a wage job total of 29,600. State government employment held at 60,600.
Manufacturing took the biggest percentage hit in the private sector with a 900-job, or 3%, year-over-year decline. In August, manufacturing showed an 800 job year-over-year loss. Education and health services, which hardly ever loses jobs and has four times manufacturing’s employment of 29,300, lost 1,100 jobs.
While the reflex is to call the financial services sector “small,” it employs more than the critical “basic economy” sectors of mining, manufacturing and information. The sector continues to boom, adding 900 wage jobs, or 9%, for a total of 36,100.
Leisure and hospital growth remained health with 2,200 new jobs over the year. The growth is down, though, from August when 4,900 jobs were added.
Employment (different from wage jobs) grew a little in the state’s four metro areas, Albuquerque, Farmington, Las Cruces and Santa Fe, but remains well below a year ago.
None of the New Mexico job changes were considered a big enough deal to be called statistically significant by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov), which also released figures November 22.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
A Bicyclist Talking on Her Cell Phone While Riding. Incredible.
Bicyclists invoke caution from me. I don’t trust them. They are small, compared to my car, behave erratically and are only protected by the illusion of the air over the paint stripe defining a bike lane.
Driving home the other day, headed west on a four-lane street with a median and a bike lane, I saw a bicyclist. As I focused on the cyclist, she (it was a she, I decided) began wobbling in the bike lane. Finally she wandered outside the bike lane. I hit the brakes. She wobbled some more and finally stopped, holding her right hand to her ear, and looked back toward me.
Talking on the phone! Or suffering from a really sore ear. It was at this time that body shape and face provided the clues that the cyclist was a woman. That the cyclist was a woman is worth noting. But stupidity favors neither gender.
Her behavior both explains my lack of sympathy for the cycling movement and my annoyance at the so-call “ghost bikes,” placed at the scene of a cyclist’s death, designed to induce guilt and sympathy for the cyclist and further the cyclists’ cause in situations such the Bike Wars along narrow King Street in Alexandria, Va., described by F.H. Buckley in the Wall Street Journal’s “Cross Country” column in the November 9 – 10 edition. “When you see the bike activists in your neighborhood,” Buckley says, “Be warned that they tend not to play nice.”
Driving home the other day, headed west on a four-lane street with a median and a bike lane, I saw a bicyclist. As I focused on the cyclist, she (it was a she, I decided) began wobbling in the bike lane. Finally she wandered outside the bike lane. I hit the brakes. She wobbled some more and finally stopped, holding her right hand to her ear, and looked back toward me.
Talking on the phone! Or suffering from a really sore ear. It was at this time that body shape and face provided the clues that the cyclist was a woman. That the cyclist was a woman is worth noting. But stupidity favors neither gender.
Her behavior both explains my lack of sympathy for the cycling movement and my annoyance at the so-call “ghost bikes,” placed at the scene of a cyclist’s death, designed to induce guilt and sympathy for the cyclist and further the cyclists’ cause in situations such the Bike Wars along narrow King Street in Alexandria, Va., described by F.H. Buckley in the Wall Street Journal’s “Cross Country” column in the November 9 – 10 edition. “When you see the bike activists in your neighborhood,” Buckley says, “Be warned that they tend not to play nice.”
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
October Abq Homes Sales Down From Sept., Up From Sept. 2012
Existing home sales in metro Albuquerque dropped in October from September, though not all that much. The likely-seasonal decline probably had help from higher interest rates. Sales of single family detached homes were 723 units during October, down 46, or 6%, from September. Sales continued the year-over-year increase, up 50 units, or 7.4%, from September 2012.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the October sales report late yesterday afternoon.
January, February and March 2013, the coldest months, reported lower sales than October.
Pending sales were 762 during October, down 127, or 14%, from September. The year-over-year increase pattern broke with pending sales, which dropped 138 units, or 15%, from October 2012. Sales during October were 81% of the 889 sales pending during September, a performance last reached in July. September sales were 64% of August pending sales. Because sales close in an average of about 45 days, pending sales in one month provide a rough and statistically impure means of projecting sales during the next month.
The homes sold during October were on the market an average of 62 days, six days less than during October 2012.
Prices, both average and median, which peaked for 2013 during August, continued to drop. The median price, $182,500 for August, was $177,500 during September and $166,000 for October. The average price was $223,533 during August, $212,307 during September and $208,152 in October.
While the 66 sales of townhouses and condominiums were down from 73 during September, the performance was 12% ahead of October 2012. The median price, $141,250, increased seven percent from a year ago with the average price, $150,922, up ten percent.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the October sales report late yesterday afternoon.
January, February and March 2013, the coldest months, reported lower sales than October.
Pending sales were 762 during October, down 127, or 14%, from September. The year-over-year increase pattern broke with pending sales, which dropped 138 units, or 15%, from October 2012. Sales during October were 81% of the 889 sales pending during September, a performance last reached in July. September sales were 64% of August pending sales. Because sales close in an average of about 45 days, pending sales in one month provide a rough and statistically impure means of projecting sales during the next month.
The homes sold during October were on the market an average of 62 days, six days less than during October 2012.
Prices, both average and median, which peaked for 2013 during August, continued to drop. The median price, $182,500 for August, was $177,500 during September and $166,000 for October. The average price was $223,533 during August, $212,307 during September and $208,152 in October.
While the 66 sales of townhouses and condominiums were down from 73 during September, the performance was 12% ahead of October 2012. The median price, $141,250, increased seven percent from a year ago with the average price, $150,922, up ten percent.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Agriculture Economic Sources Listed
My column that will be published next week discusses the economic impact of agriculture, broadly defined. The three principal sources for the column were:
The Food and Fiber System: Contributing to the U.S. and World Economies. By
Kathryn L. Lipton, Office of the Administrator; William Edmondson, Food and Rural
Economics Division; and Alden Manchester, Market and Trade Economics Division,
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agriculture Information
Bulletin No. 742.
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_Mexico/Publications/Annual_Statistical_Bulletin/2011/09_11.pdf
Amber Waves: The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources and Rural America, December 2011, Volume 9, Issue 4. Published by the United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves
The column goes to the community newspaper subscribers to the syndication service, New Mexico News Services. The papers are in Farmington, Gallup, Los Alamos, Espanola, Ruidoso, Roswell, Artesia, Carlsbad and Hobbs. Anyone who happens across this post without seeing the column first can go to a newspaper website and look under "opinion." Farmington, Espanola and Los Alamos are especially good about posting the column.
The Food and Fiber System: Contributing to the U.S. and World Economies. By
Kathryn L. Lipton, Office of the Administrator; William Edmondson, Food and Rural
Economics Division; and Alden Manchester, Market and Trade Economics Division,
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agriculture Information
Bulletin No. 742.
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_Mexico/Publications/Annual_Statistical_Bulletin/2011/09_11.pdf
Amber Waves: The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources and Rural America, December 2011, Volume 9, Issue 4. Published by the United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves
The column goes to the community newspaper subscribers to the syndication service, New Mexico News Services. The papers are in Farmington, Gallup, Los Alamos, Espanola, Ruidoso, Roswell, Artesia, Carlsbad and Hobbs. Anyone who happens across this post without seeing the column first can go to a newspaper website and look under "opinion." Farmington, Espanola and Los Alamos are especially good about posting the column.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
September Home Sales Ahead of 2012
Metro Albuquerque saw the sale of 769 homes closed during September. That was down 10% from August, presumably a seasonal decline, but up 17.8% from September 2012.
The 889 sales pending during September was also down from August by 122 units or 12% and ahead of September 2012 by five units.
September’s sales closed represented 76% of the August pending sales, about the same percentage of July pending sales represented by August’s 857 closed sales.
The homes with sales closed during September were on the market an average of 63 days, a five percent or three day increase from 60 days during July and August.
Both the average sales price during September ($212,307) and the median price ($177,500) retreated from the 2013 highs reached during August. September’s median price and average price were ahead of September 2012, respectively 3.2% and 4.6%. The September average price was pushed by the sale of four $1 million-plus homes during the month.
The September sales report was posted September 10 at gaar.com by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
The 889 sales pending during September was also down from August by 122 units or 12% and ahead of September 2012 by five units.
September’s sales closed represented 76% of the August pending sales, about the same percentage of July pending sales represented by August’s 857 closed sales.
The homes with sales closed during September were on the market an average of 63 days, a five percent or three day increase from 60 days during July and August.
Both the average sales price during September ($212,307) and the median price ($177,500) retreated from the 2013 highs reached during August. September’s median price and average price were ahead of September 2012, respectively 3.2% and 4.6%. The September average price was pushed by the sale of four $1 million-plus homes during the month.
The September sales report was posted September 10 at gaar.com by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
Monday, September 30, 2013
Abq Leads August Job Performance.
Within the state’s August 2012 to August 2013 growth of 6,900 jobs (all of 0.9%), the metro picture is mixed.
Albuquerque, of all places, led the pack with 5,100 new wage jobs, a not unhealthy 1.4% increase. The Department of Workforce Services released the figures late Friday, September 27.
In the Duke City, the feds dropped 700 wage employees over the year, half the statewide loss of 1,400. However, local government added 1,100 jobs in the city with 600 more state employees. The government sector as a whole gained 1,000 jobs in Albuquerque.
Overall government lost 3,100 jobs including 2,000 in local government.
Combining the two totals for government—minus 3,100 statewide and plus 1,000 in Albuquerque means the non-Albuquerque part of the state lost 4,100 government jobs. Ouch. Note these figures are not seasonally adjusted. Some of the jobs may reappear in September as school begins.
Leisure and hospitality, a rough proxy for tourism, led the Albuquerque growth with 2,800 more jobs, year over year, or 64% of the 4,400 more jobs statewide.
A big tourism year would one to anticipate a jump in leisure and hospitality in Santa Fe. For the August to August year, that was not the case in Santa Fe where the sector remained unchanged at 10,000 wage jobs. Over the year, Santa Fe lost 400 jobs with a few gains offset by 700 fewer jobs in “other services,” whatever that is.
Las Cruces added 100 jobs while Farmington lost 200 during the period.
Statewide, construction is up 1,200 jobs, the best year over year showing since 2006, DWS said.
Albuquerque, of all places, led the pack with 5,100 new wage jobs, a not unhealthy 1.4% increase. The Department of Workforce Services released the figures late Friday, September 27.
In the Duke City, the feds dropped 700 wage employees over the year, half the statewide loss of 1,400. However, local government added 1,100 jobs in the city with 600 more state employees. The government sector as a whole gained 1,000 jobs in Albuquerque.
Overall government lost 3,100 jobs including 2,000 in local government.
Combining the two totals for government—minus 3,100 statewide and plus 1,000 in Albuquerque means the non-Albuquerque part of the state lost 4,100 government jobs. Ouch. Note these figures are not seasonally adjusted. Some of the jobs may reappear in September as school begins.
Leisure and hospitality, a rough proxy for tourism, led the Albuquerque growth with 2,800 more jobs, year over year, or 64% of the 4,400 more jobs statewide.
A big tourism year would one to anticipate a jump in leisure and hospitality in Santa Fe. For the August to August year, that was not the case in Santa Fe where the sector remained unchanged at 10,000 wage jobs. Over the year, Santa Fe lost 400 jobs with a few gains offset by 700 fewer jobs in “other services,” whatever that is.
Las Cruces added 100 jobs while Farmington lost 200 during the period.
Statewide, construction is up 1,200 jobs, the best year over year showing since 2006, DWS said.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Employment Drops in August, Wage Jobs Grow
The New Mexico wage job news continued semi-cheery in August with a 6,900 year over year gain in wage jobs led by a banner year in tourism, aka “leisure and hospitality.” The “semi” stems from gains remaining under one percent from the diminished number of employed at the bottom of the recession.
The Department of Workforce Services released the August jobs report last Friday the 20th.
A statistical cloud appears in the drop in the labor force (from 934,930 to 927,009) and in employment (different from wage jobs) from 868,495 in August 2012 to 866,103 in August 2013. The economy apparently is not firing on enough cylinders to drive both job measures (employment and wage jobs) into positive territory. We’re not recovering yet.
As compared to the nation, nothing significant, statistically significant that is, happened here, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also released numbers last Friday. Nationally, 29 states reported more wage jobs, 20 reported fewer and Montana had no change.
Leisure and hospitality led the sector growth with 4,400 more wage jobs over the year, a 4.9 percent increase, definitely strong growth. Though the sector is tourism dominated, by virtue of including restaurants, the improvement also includes additional dining out by local residents, behavior that will reflect national and state economic improvement and perhaps a bit of pent-up restlessness.
With 3,600 new wage jobs, or three percent growth, between August 2012 and August 2013, education and health services has picked up the job pace after some lagging months.
The small financial services sector, with 34,900 jobs in July, continues the percentage growth leader among the sectors with a 5.8 percent increase year over year reflecting increased home sales. Increasing mortgage rate won’t help this performance.
Construction showed a decent 2.9 percent year over year increase with 1,200 wage jobs added to the August 2012 base of 41,400. The caution here is that the concepts of health and the construction sector have been an oxymoron for some years.
Mining, which here includes logging, grew by 1.2 percent, or 300 jobs.
Four of the private sectors lost jobs, “led” by manufacturing, down 800 jobs over the year.
Government dropped 3,100 jobs between the Augusts. The federal total was down 1,400 to 30,400, possibly sequester related. State government added 300 jobs including 200 in the education arena. Local government lost 2,000 with 1,300 in education.
The Department of Workforce Services released the August jobs report last Friday the 20th.
A statistical cloud appears in the drop in the labor force (from 934,930 to 927,009) and in employment (different from wage jobs) from 868,495 in August 2012 to 866,103 in August 2013. The economy apparently is not firing on enough cylinders to drive both job measures (employment and wage jobs) into positive territory. We’re not recovering yet.
As compared to the nation, nothing significant, statistically significant that is, happened here, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also released numbers last Friday. Nationally, 29 states reported more wage jobs, 20 reported fewer and Montana had no change.
Leisure and hospitality led the sector growth with 4,400 more wage jobs over the year, a 4.9 percent increase, definitely strong growth. Though the sector is tourism dominated, by virtue of including restaurants, the improvement also includes additional dining out by local residents, behavior that will reflect national and state economic improvement and perhaps a bit of pent-up restlessness.
With 3,600 new wage jobs, or three percent growth, between August 2012 and August 2013, education and health services has picked up the job pace after some lagging months.
The small financial services sector, with 34,900 jobs in July, continues the percentage growth leader among the sectors with a 5.8 percent increase year over year reflecting increased home sales. Increasing mortgage rate won’t help this performance.
Construction showed a decent 2.9 percent year over year increase with 1,200 wage jobs added to the August 2012 base of 41,400. The caution here is that the concepts of health and the construction sector have been an oxymoron for some years.
Mining, which here includes logging, grew by 1.2 percent, or 300 jobs.
Four of the private sectors lost jobs, “led” by manufacturing, down 800 jobs over the year.
Government dropped 3,100 jobs between the Augusts. The federal total was down 1,400 to 30,400, possibly sequester related. State government added 300 jobs including 200 in the education arena. Local government lost 2,000 with 1,300 in education.
Friday, September 20, 2013
Fracking Information Available Here!!
An old friend, Carroll Cagle, asked me to posted these sources of information about fracking, the long-proven technology making our shale boom possible and maybe, in a few years, energy independence.
Harold, as you well know, the battle against fracking is the new jihad by anti-energy forces – esp. now that Keystone XL pipeline no longer uses up all their fervor.
Just as a study shows that fracking is not a big villain re. methane emissions, ant-fracking Cornell disputes THAT study!
Would you be able to post something on this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonentine/2013/09/18/university-of-texas-environmental-defense-fund-shale-gas-study-unmasks-politics-of-anti-fracking-activist-cornell-scientists/
The Forbes piece is by Jon Entine responding to criticisms aired yesterday by Cornell scientists re: a recent University of Texas study concerning methane emissions associated with natural gas production. The Cornell scientists said the study was “fatally flawed,” something that is patently untrue. Entine – whose forte is investigative journalism – has written in the past about the fact that Cornell receives significant funding from anti-fracking activist groups – specifically the Park Foundation. So the Entine piece will focus on the bias there, the funding issues, etc.
Gas Leaks in Fracking Disputed in Study
The New York Times, September 16, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/us/gas-leaks-in-fracking-less-than-estimated.html?_r=0
Drilling for shale gas through hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, appears to cause smaller leaks of the greenhouse gas methane than the federal government had estimated, and considerably smaller than some critics of shale gas had feared, according to a peer-reviewed study released on Monday.
Harold, as you well know, the battle against fracking is the new jihad by anti-energy forces – esp. now that Keystone XL pipeline no longer uses up all their fervor.
Just as a study shows that fracking is not a big villain re. methane emissions, ant-fracking Cornell disputes THAT study!
Would you be able to post something on this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonentine/2013/09/18/university-of-texas-environmental-defense-fund-shale-gas-study-unmasks-politics-of-anti-fracking-activist-cornell-scientists/
The Forbes piece is by Jon Entine responding to criticisms aired yesterday by Cornell scientists re: a recent University of Texas study concerning methane emissions associated with natural gas production. The Cornell scientists said the study was “fatally flawed,” something that is patently untrue. Entine – whose forte is investigative journalism – has written in the past about the fact that Cornell receives significant funding from anti-fracking activist groups – specifically the Park Foundation. So the Entine piece will focus on the bias there, the funding issues, etc.
Gas Leaks in Fracking Disputed in Study
The New York Times, September 16, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/us/gas-leaks-in-fracking-less-than-estimated.html?_r=0
Drilling for shale gas through hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, appears to cause smaller leaks of the greenhouse gas methane than the federal government had estimated, and considerably smaller than some critics of shale gas had feared, according to a peer-reviewed study released on Monday.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
August Homes Sales Drop From July
The guess a month ago was that matching the July sales of metro Albuquerque single family detached homes during August would be difficult. The premise was the high percentage of June pending sales that turned into July closed sales. The guess was correct. While 81% of June pending sales became closed sales during July, “only” 74% of the July pending sales closed during August. That meant sales of 857 homes during August, a nine percent or 84 unit drop from July. August sales were up 17% from a year ago.
With August pending sales of 1,011 homes down 13% or 1,158 unit from July, it is reasonable to expect that September sales will drop from August. Seasonality may come into play, too, with the standard decline in sales from the summer peak.
The homes sold during August took an average of 60 days to find a new owner, the same as July. The 60-day average sale period remains the year’s quickest.
During August sale average sale prices increased just a bit from July. The median price grew $500 to $182,500 with the average up $1,028 to $223,533. Both the median and average price was up more than 10% from August 2012.
For the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, which released the August figures September 10, the headline of the month was a 53%, or 62 unit, increase in sales in Rio Rancho as compared to August 2012. The Rio Rancho performance accounted for nearly half of the year over year sales growth during August.
Sales in the east mountain area declined 15 units year over year. GAAR did not mention this.
With August pending sales of 1,011 homes down 13% or 1,158 unit from July, it is reasonable to expect that September sales will drop from August. Seasonality may come into play, too, with the standard decline in sales from the summer peak.
The homes sold during August took an average of 60 days to find a new owner, the same as July. The 60-day average sale period remains the year’s quickest.
During August sale average sale prices increased just a bit from July. The median price grew $500 to $182,500 with the average up $1,028 to $223,533. Both the median and average price was up more than 10% from August 2012.
For the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, which released the August figures September 10, the headline of the month was a 53%, or 62 unit, increase in sales in Rio Rancho as compared to August 2012. The Rio Rancho performance accounted for nearly half of the year over year sales growth during August.
Sales in the east mountain area declined 15 units year over year. GAAR did not mention this.
Friday, August 16, 2013
Abq, SF "Running Out of Water"
The report is from 247wallst.com. The full URL is http://247wallst.com/special-report/2013/08/01/nine-cities-running-out-of-water.
It lists nine cities said to be running out of water. Lubbock leads this ugly list, followed by Pueblo with Colorado Springs in fourth.
Albuquerque is 8th an Santa Fe 9th.
It lists nine cities said to be running out of water. Lubbock leads this ugly list, followed by Pueblo with Colorado Springs in fourth.
Albuquerque is 8th an Santa Fe 9th.
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