Saturday, June 16, 2018

Job Growth Gains Significance

The New Mexico rate of unemployment continues down, though the state retains its grip on the nation’s third highest rate at 5.1% unemployed. The state’s drop in unemployment rate hit the “statistically significant” mark for both the one month change from 5.4% in April to 5.1% in May and year-over-year with the change from 6.2% in May 2017. The one-month performance of -0.3 percentage points was the nation’s best.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the May job report yesterday.
Our year over year seasonally adjusted employment change, a 1.6% increase, was also statistically significant. There were 828,500 people employed in the state in May 2017 and 841,700 in May 2018, a 13,200 increase. The labor force grew by 10,000. Employment grew by 20,000 and unemployment dropped 9,000.
Switching to a not seasonally adjusted basis, Eddy and Lea counties, now dealing with a drilling boom, accounted for a quarter of the year-over-year job growth. Eddy County employment increased by 1,914. Lea employment grew 1,452.
Again not seasonally adjusted basis, over the year, the labor fore grew by 20,000.
The improvement covered most of the major supersectors. (These used to called “sectors.”)
The increases (not seasonally adjusted) were in mining, 300; construction, 2,900 (6.4%); non-durable manufacturing, 700; transportation and warehousing, 1,700; financial, 2,000; professional and business services, 3,000 (3.7%); and leisure and hospitality, 3,400 (3.5%, summer hiring?).
Health care and social assistance and information, both down 700, were the only sectors of size to lose more than a few jobs.
State government education dropped 900 jobs (university summer school?). Local government education dropped 400 (public schools out for the summer?).

Monday, June 11, 2018

Home Sales Drop 2.4% During May From May 2017

During May the sale closed for 88% of the homes with sale pending. That’s a number relationship, not reality. But the suggestion is that the sale went through on nearly all the potential sales. That’s a change.
The sale closed during May for 1,200 single family detached homes, a 2.4% drop from May 2017. Those homes were on the market an average of 40 days, a 9.1% quicker sale than during May 2017. The old rule of thumb was that a home sale took 45 days to close, plus or minus.
The inventory of homes for sale was 3,035, 17.7%, or 651 less than a year ago.
Put all these figures together and it seems as if the metro Albuquerque market is getting really, really tight. The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the May sales report today.
Pending sales did increase during May, as compared to a year before, up 244, or 21.6%. That increase was a mere 15 over April, so year-over-year implies not much. It was the largest percentage increase in pending sales for more than a year.
The median sales price, $210,000 during May increased from April, up $5,000, or 3%. A year ago during May, the median price was $199,000.
However, the average price, $239,281 for May, dropped a bit from April, down one percent, or $2,756. April’s average price increased 1.6% from April 2017.

Friday, May 25, 2018

Albuquerque Continues to Lead Metro Job Production

Together New Mexico’s three smaller metro areas lost wage 800 jobs in the year between April 2017 and April 2018. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the detailed job report today in the Labor Market Review newsletter. The job totals are not seasonally adjusted.
Las Cruces was the leader, down 1,400 jobs, or 1.9%. Farmington chipped in with another 200 lost jobs, or 0.2%. Santa Fe made up almost half the loses with an increase over the year of 700 jobs or 1.1%
Albuquerque remained the metro jobs producer with an increase of 4,900 jobs, or 1.2%.
As reported last week, the state’s wage job total grew 1.2%, or 10,000 jobs. The 1.2% job increase tied three Deep-Sough states for 24th place nationally—Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi. Our neighbors continued in the top ten. Utah led with a 3.4% job increase from April 2017 to April 2018. Texas was fourth, Colorado, sixth, Arizona, seventh.
The Las Cruces year-over-year loses were 86% public sector, or 1,200 jobs. Of those 1,200, state government lost 1,000 with local and federal government each dropping 100. Leisure and hospitality lost 400 Las Cruces jobs; education and health services gained 400.
Given that, statewide, the state government education sector lost 1,500 jobs, a guess is that the Las Cruces loses were at New Mexico State University.
In metro Albuquerque, the only sector of size to lose jobs was education and health services, down 1,600 to 63,300, keeping it the metro area’s largest job sector and 200 jobs ahead of professional and business services which gained 3,000 to total 63,100.
In Santa Fe, only leisure and hospitality, up 700 jobs, added more than 200 jobs.

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

April Home Sales Up 10%

Metro Albuquerque sales of single family detached homes continue to show a year-over-year increase. The other news is that interest rates are going up, which is expected to slow sales nationally. How much slowing? No idea.
In Albuquerque closed sales for April were 1,089 homes, a 10.3%, or 102 home, growth from April 2017 but just a tiny 23 home increase from 1,066 closed sales during March.
Pending sales for April—1,358 homes—were up a nice 15.6% from 1,175 in April 2017, but actually dropped six units from March.
The homes sold in an average of 47 days, four days faster than during April 2017 and six days faster than during March.
On a year-over-year comparison, prices continued the upward march. The median sales price during April was $205,000, a 5.1% hike, or $10,000, from March 2017. The $205,000 median price was $7,000 ahead of March.
The story of the April average prices, $242,037, is more complex. The average price was up from April 2017 by 2.5%, or $5,799. But it dropped a tiny bit—$495—from $242,532 in March.
The inventory of homes for sale, 2,808 during April, increased 168 homes from March, but was down 17.1% from 3,389 during April 2018.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Metro Albuquerque, Eddy and Lea Counties Dominate Job Growth

New Mexico’s year-over-year wage job growth kicked back up in April with a gain of 10,100, or 1.2%. The gain was 8,900 in the year from March 2017 to March 2018.
All the growth was in the private sector; government lost a net of 500 jobs, driven by 1,500 fewer jobs in state government education, i.e., higher education.
The state government payroll has declined by more than 2,100 jobs since the budget year that ended June 30, 2011. Gov. Susana Martinez took office in January 2011, Charles Sallee, deputy director of the Legislative Finance Committee, told the Tax Research Institute conference May 10. “The size of state government has continued to shrink,” Sallee said. There have been “some efficiencies,” he said, but some critical areas such as corrections and child protective services are simply short of people with turnover rates exceeding 20% and vacancy rates of more than 10%.
The state’s unemployment rate dropped another 0.2 percentage points for the April-to-April year. This rate ties West Virginia for second highest among the states. Washington, D.C., with 5.6% unemployment, is just ahead. Alaska remains first with 7.3% unemployment. For months and months New Mexico has stood along with the second highest rate. New Mexico was one of four states with a lower unemployment for the period.
With 3,900 new wage jobs, professional and business services led the job production from April 2017 to April 2018. The past month produced 2,800 jobs.
Construction added 3,100 jobs during the year with 2,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality and 1,700 in financial activities. Even manufacturing, a perennial loser, added 1,000 jobs. Mining added 200.
Education and health services, which led the state economy as Medicaid expanded, lost 700 jobs. The other year-over-year losers are the information sector, with 1,400 fewer jobs and retail trade, down 1,200.
Metro Albuquerque and the rural counties continue to dominate job growth. The latest metro figures are for the year from March 2017 to March 2018.
The state added 8,900 jobs for the period. Metro Albuquerque provided 5,300 of the jobs, or 60%. The other three metro areas together grew a net of 600 jobs. That means the 26 rural counties added 4,200 jobs.
Metro Las Cruces (Dona Ana County) lost 1,600 jobs. Santa Fe added 600 jobs with 400 more jobs in Farmington, which has been on a long downer.
Professional and business services led the Albuquerque growth 2,200 new jobs over the year. Government added 700 jobs including 600 in state government.
Santa Fe added 500 jobs in leisure and hospitality and 400 in professional and business services. Just one private sector sector, transportation, added jobs (+100) in Las Cruces. State government lost 900 jobs.
Solid year-over-year growth continued in the Eddy and Lea counties, accounting for around two-thirds of the rural job growth for the period.

Friday, April 20, 2018

NM Economy Improving; Long Way To Go

The “overall message” from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City regional economist Alison Felix on April 18 was, “Things are improving. There is a long way to go.”
Felix spoke in Albuquerque at the Fed’s Albuquerque Economic Forum.
Today Felix got a supporting new number from the Department of Workforce Solutions and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. New Mexico’s unemployment dropped another two tenths of a point in March to 5.6%, down from 5.8% in February and 6.3% in March 2017. Maine, Ohio and Wyoming were the other states with over-the-month unemployment rate decreases. In Maine, hardly anyone is unemployed; the rate is 2.7%.
But on the other hand, that favorite economist’s expression, the state’s unemployment remained second highest in the nation, a point DWS ignored. The good news starts from a low (or high) base.
Metro Albuquerque, with 46% of employment in the state has 4.7% unemployment.
The state added 8,900 wage jobs (seasonally unadjusted) from March 2017 to March 2018 for 1.1% growth. The growth appears erratic. There were 11,000 new year-over-year jobs in February, 7,000 in January and 10,800 in December.
Construction remains the sector growth leader with 3,000 new jobs in the March year, a 4.7% increase. Manufacturing, with 1,200 new jobs, tied construction for the percentage increase lead with 4.7% growth. That manufacturing is growing at all suggests improvement in the New Mexico economy. In part, Felix said, the manufacturing slump has been tied to energy, which supports a lot of manufacturing.
Employment growth has reached Lea and Eddy counties, the oil production heartland. (Note: “employment” is different from “jobs,” developed by different methods. The categories are closely related, of course.)
Lea County employment grew by 1,310 or 5.1%, year over year. Eddy employment grew 2,026. The county job growth seems curious in light of zero mining sector job growth. The two counties do have other things happening such as Carlsbad Caverns and Urenco’s National (uranium) Enrichment Facility near Eunice.
On yet another hand for Lea and Eddy, the drilling boom in the Permian Basin that includes Lea and Eddy is running into some of the bottlenecks characterizing booms, starting a labor shortage. Pipeline capacity is beginning to be problem, the Wall Street Journal reported April 19. Pipelines for natural gas, producing along with oil, are having some of the same dilemmas. “Some producers face the prospect of shutting wells,” the Journal said.
Professional and business services was the number two job producing sector with additional of 2,600. Leisure and hospitality added 1,900. Financial activities grew by 1,200. Transportation, warehousing and utilities added 1,000.
Retail trade, down 1,100, led the losers followed by information and state government education, both down 1,000, and health care, which lost 700.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Abq Home Sales and Prices Up, Inventory down

Metro Albuquerque real estate sales people got it in gear during March. They closed the sale of 34.4 single family homes on the average day during the month. That’s almost ten more sales each day that during February. The sale of 1,066 homes closed during the month, 3.4%, or 35 homes more than March 2017, and 373 homes, or 54% more than during February.
Remember that March had three more days than February. The same sort of sales jump between February and March happened during 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the March sales report yesterday.
Pending sales increased 19% to 1,364 during March from 1,142 during February. Pending sales were up 17.8% from March 2017. Seasonality explains at least part of the increase; metro sales increase as the weather warms.
Prices are trending up. Median prices were 187,500 during January, 194,500 for February and $198,000 during March. For Average prices, it was $217,679 during January, $225,342 during February and $242,532 for March. The March average price represented an increase of almost $20,000, or 9%, from $222,574 in March 2017.
The March sales increase comes in the face of a flat inventory of homes available for sale. The metro inventory was 2,671 during January, 2,613 during February and 2,645 during March.
The metro market for single family attached homes showed the same behavior during March with pending and closed sales increasing along with median and average prices.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Metro Job Growth Up From January Rate

Metro area job growth increased on a year-over-year basis from the numbers reported for January. The numbers come from the Labor Market Review, the newsletter of the Department of Workforce Solutions which was released late yesterday afternoon.
For the year between February 2017 and February 2018, Albuquerque added 5,800 jobs; Santa Fe 800; and Farmington 900. Las Cruces dropped 1,500 for the February year, 100 more than disappeared between January 2017 and January 2018. During February Las Cruces added 1,400 jobs, all in government. As reported last week the state added 5,800 jobs.
The state’s 11,000 new jobs over the year represented 1.3% growth which tied for 20th place nationally with four others.
February was a good month for those seeking government jobs. Statewide there were 6,800 new jobs in government (not seasonally adjusted), nearly all in education. State government education added 3,700 jobs with another 2,500 in local government (the k-12 segment).
Albuquerque claimed 2,700 new government jobs during February (40% of the total). There were 1,600 new government jobs in Las Cruces (24%) including 1,400 in state government. For the month, Santa Fe got 1,200 government jobs (18%) with 900 in local government. Farmington should feel left out with only 300 new government jobs.
The year-over-year sector leaders in metro Albuquerque were construction (+2,100), professional and business services (+1,400) and leisure and hospitality (+1,100). In Las Cruces, state government was the largest sector growth leader, down 1,000. Santa Fe’s sector growth leader was leisure and hospitality, up 500.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Unemployment Rates Drops to 5.8%; Still Second Nationally

During February New Mexico’s unemployment rate continued to go lower, dropping 5.8% from 6.4% in February 2017. The change was enough to get the “statistically significant” label from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state still ranks second nationally in the unemployment rate, but is widening the gap with Alaska, the leader.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the new BLS numbers yesterday.
New Mexico’s 0.1 point drop in the unemployment rate between January and February made the state one of seven with an unemployment rate decline for the month. However nice, the drop did not rate significance.
New Mexico’s labor force grew by about 7,000 during the year from February 2017 to February 2018, going from 928,003 to 935,149. The number of unemployed dropped from 59,775 to 53,927.
Construction was the sector leader in job additions with 3,500. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted.
Among growing basic industries, leisure and hospitality led with 2,300. Professional and business services added 1,500 with 1,000 more in manufacturing (a big switch for a sector that has been disappearing) and 700 more in mining.
Financial activities added 1,500 jobs for the year. Education and health care show no change, another big switch for a sector that a couple of years ago accounted for nearly all the state’s minimal job growth.
Government gained 300 jobs over the year, a net figure that includes 1,000 fewer education jobs. State government education (universities) lost 800 jobs with 200 gone from local government education (the public schools).

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Revisions Reduce 2017 Job Totals

For the year between January 2017 and January 2018, the state’s three job-gaining metro areas produced 5,100 new wage jobs.
Albuquerque accounted for 56% of the statewide year-over-year job growth with 3,900 new wage jobs, a one percent increase. Farmington’s 1.9% increase led the metro percentage growth. Santa Fe added 300 jobs for a 0.5% increase. However, throw in Las Cruces, which lost 1,400 jobs or two percent, for the year and the net metro performance becomes 3,700 new jobs.
The numbers come from the Labor Market Review, the newsletter of the Department of Workforce Solutions which was released yesterday.
For readers’ added enjoyment, the Review offered a bonus, a huge typographical error in the main headline which said, “Highlights: January 2017 Labor Market Data.”
New Mexico’s 0.9% growth lagged next worst performing of eight other peer states in the southwest and Rocky Mountains by half a percentage point. That state was Wyoming with 1.4% job growth for the year.
The state’s unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% in January 2017 to 5.9% in January 2018. We remain entrenched in the ranking of second worst unemployment rate among the states, behind only Alaska, which has 7.3% unemployment.
The new numbers reflect the annual benchmarking process of the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. This process plugs into the job reports, which usually come from a sampling, a broader count through the quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. With the revisions, individual sectors have their ups and downs.
Overall the revisions were not good news. The average growth rate for 2016 dropped to 0.3%, or 2,800 jobs. The improved performance for the state during 2017 came on a smaller base than was initially supposed. The revisions dropped the average wage job total by 9,000 to 830,500.
Two key sectors gained in reported average employment. Mining was revised up an average of 2,000 jobs. The change made the jobs gains in Lea and Eddy counties consistent with the sector gains. As noted in last week’s post, mining showed a 700-job gain for the year, a nice turn from a month ago when the sector performance was down 700 jobs for the December 2016 to December 2017 year. Professional and business services shows 1,300 more jobs, on average for the year.
The larger drops came in retail trade (2,500), educational services (1,900), leisure and hospitality (2,900) and state government education which mostly means universities (2,000).

Monday, March 12, 2018

Employment Rate Drops to 5.9% as Primary Sectors Add Jobs

Even perennially laggard mining/logging sector gained 700 jobs on a not seasonally adjusted basis between during the year between January 2017 and January 2018. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the initial January job report today.
A number of key sectors added jobs during the year, suggesting, just maybe, that the New Mexico economy is improving, though not a lot on a percentage basis. The figures released today include revisions done as part of what DWS calls the annual benchmarking process. We will know more in a week. That’s when DWS will release its Labor Market Review that will discuss the revisions in detail.
Manufacturing, the other main laggard among the basic industry sectors, added 800 jobs for 3.1% growth.
Construction led the sector performers on a year over year not seasonally adjusted basis with 4,100 more jobs, a 9.6% increase. This too will pass.
Leisure and hospitality led primary sectors with 1,300 more jobs, up 1.4%, followed by professional and business services, up 1.2% or 1,200 jobs.
The state’s unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% to 5.9% during the past year, a seasonally adjusted change considered statistically significant by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the numbers. The labor force grew by about 5,500 during the year while unemployment dropped by 5,500.

February Average Daily Home Sales Up From January

Sales of single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque recovered a bit in February, though the number of closed sales tells a different tale. The trick is that February had just 28 days. While February’s 693 closed sales were down from January’s 721 sales, February averaged 24.75 sales per day while January, with 721 closed sales, averaged 23.26 sales per day. The February performance beat February 2017 by 37 units, or 5.6%, but was well behind December 2017, which had 904 closed sales, a rate of 29.16 per day.
February saw the sale closed of 67% of the 1,037 sales that were pending during January, a low figure.
Pending sales increased 105 units, or 10%, from January to 1,142 for February. The performance was 22.4%, or 209 units, ahead of February 2017. The increase suggests improvement in March sales.
Both median and average sale prices, while up from February 2017, remain below November 2017. The median price for the February sales was $194,500. The average price was $225,342.
Home sold in an average 58 days during February, a week faster than during February 2017, but slower than the closing months of 2017.
The inventory of homes offered for sale continues down. It was 2,613 during February and 3,565 During August 2017. The inventory was 3,194 during February 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the February sales report today.

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Grisham Emails Keep Inviting Comment

It’s not that I have anything especially against Michelle Lujan Grisham; it’s just that the invitations to comment keep coming via her fund raising emails directed to small donors to her campaign for governor.
The latest appeared February 24. Lujan appears confused about the beginning of Gov. Susana Martinez’ term as governor. Lujan said, “New Mexico has had eight years of failed Republican leadership.” But the Martinez term didn’t start until January 1, 2011. So Grisham is off by ten months. That’s an error of fact and all errors of fact get an F.
The Grisham campaign runs on fear, especially, it seems to me, fear of Steve Pearce, her fellow member of congress and Republican candidate for governor.
Her latest rant is about money. It appeared February 20, continuing the left’s theme that money in politics is evil. She focuses on the Koch brothers of Wichita, KS, favorite left wing bogeymen.
She writes that the brothers “are planning to spend around $400 million in untraceable dark money during the midterm elections—and they’ve singled our race as one for which they are willing to spend big to win.” She cites Pearce’s $900,000 (or so) in congressional campaign funds that he was able to transfer to his governor’s race.
Observation: Money in politics means communications. Sometimes the message works, sometime it doesn’t. Much depends on the messenger.
For example, according to New Mexico News Port, Mayor Tim Keller, all purity, took $544,000 in public funds for his race. But, the article said, “a political committee that formed specifically to support him, Albuquerque Forward Together” raised $674,000, bringing Keller’s total to $1.2 million. Keller also got in-kind donations that were ruled a violation of campaign regulations.
Keller gamed the system and won.
For Ricardo Chaves, spending didn’t work. Chaves $525,000 got him one percent of the vote in the first round.
In the Alabama senate race last year, Doug Jones, the Democrat and the winner, spent about $12 million. The incredibly awful loser, Roy Moore, raised $5 million, Newsweek said. Jones won by 22,000 votes or, 1.5%. Jones’ money helped with his communications.
In 2016 Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful campaign spent $768 million, the Washington Post reported. Donald Trump spent $398 million.
The Koch brothers are active in New Mexico these days through their Americans for Prosperity organization.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Home Sales Start 2018 Nicely

Maybe it was the warm weather. Maybe it was the jobs, few as they are, being added to the metro Albuquerque economy.
Whatever the reason, metro Albuquerque sales of single family homes started the year nicely with 721 closed sales representing a 7.6% increase over January 2017. Everything being relative and seasonal, however, the January sales were 20% down from the 904 sales in December 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the January sales report today.
Pending sales, the predictor of closed sales the following month, suggest a good February. January pending sales were 1,037 homes, 28.7% above a year ago and 11%, or 104 homes, above February 2017.
Homes continue to sell faster than a year ago. Homes took an average of 58 days to sell during January. That was four days or 6.5% faster than January 2017. There were 2,671 homes offered for sale during January, a drop of 570 homes, or 17.6%, from a year ago. Inventory dropped two percent, or 65 homes, from December.
Prices changed little from January 2017. January’s average price, $217,679, was down 0.6%, or $1,237, from January 2017. However, that $217,679 was down $12,501, or five percent from December 2017. The average sales price had been over $230,000 for nine months.
The median price during January was $187,500, up 1.1% or $2,000, from January 2017 but down $6,400 or three percent from December.
Sales of attached homes (townhouses or condominiums), 77 during January, were up 30.5% from January 2017. The 118 pending sales were 53% increase from a year before.

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Lea Eddy & Metro Albuquerque Grab 72% of new 2017 Jobs

For wage job gains during 2017, it was metro Albuquerque and two rural counties. As reported last week, when the summary numbers were released, the state added 10,800 jobs. Albuquerque gained 4,400 jobs, or 41% of the state total. Eddy and Lea counties, both considered rural gained 3,400 jobs, or 31% of the total.
Farmington, Las Cruces and Santa Fe, the other three metro areas, lost 300 jobs between them for the year between December 2016 and December 2017. Government, down 700 jobs, pulled Las Cruces into the red for 2017. Local government around the Las Cruces metro dropped 600 jobs.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released metro job details yesterday.
Including making up the 300 lost metro jobs, the remaining 24 rural counties gained 3,000 jobs, or 28% of the new jobs scattered around about the home of half the state’s population.
Those 3,100 new leisure and hospitality jobs reported last week included 900 jobs added in December. A guess is that total will take a hit as ski areas continue without natural snow. So will supporting retail.
The small (20,100 jobs) financial sector led Albuquerque’s year-over-year growth with 1,600 jobs, an 8.6% hike. Leisure and hospitality followed with 1,400 jobs, or 3.4%.