Thursday, March 31, 2011

NM Economy: Recovering? Nation’s Worst?

“Technical issues” blew a decent, all things considered, job report for February into negative territory of a 7,100-job loss statewide from February 2010 to February 2011. The Department of Workforce Solutions didn’t quite say it that way in the monthly news release this afternoon. But the numbers for professional and business services, the group for lawyers, accountants and national laboratories, showed an 11,000-job, or 11%, loss year-over-year. Jobs losses in Construction, information wholesale trade and government added another 6,000 to the negative performance.
Whatever the reason, New Mexico led the nation in job loss percentage for February with the 0.9% decline.
The decent part of the report came with added jobs statewide in key sectors including mining, manufacturing, retail, transportation, finance and leisure and hospitality.
What DWS said was, “The February data are preliminary, and we expect the revised data we present next month to show an improved outlook. The data are sample-based, and at this early time in the data collection cycle, the response rate is still lower than we would like.”
Gee, that’s nice. Then DWS continues, basically saying trust us, it will come out in the revisions.
“Technical issues aside, the recovery is under way but progressing
slowly,” DWS says. “Recovery” continues to mean we’re losing fewer jobs.
Of the ten counties with an unemployment of more than ten percent, three are in the Albuquerque metro.
In professional and business services, Albuquerque lost 2,000 jobs for the year. Las Cruces and Santa Fe each lost 100. The math says that Farmington and the rural counties lost 8,800. That’s a big number. From where?
In the new, transparent Martinez administration, DWS should fess up. DWS should say a problem exists, what the problem might be, the effect on the numbers, and solutions that are in process.
Maybe the revisions will make all these “technical issues” go away. Until then, I’m dazed, confused and uninformed.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

NM 2010 National Leader in % Income Growth; Rate Dropped

With 4.2% growth in personal income during 2010, New Mexico led the nation in percentage income growth, according to figures released yesterday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
For per capita income, which is calculated by dividing population into personal income, New Mexico ranked 43rd nationally in 2010. Per capita income in New Mexico was $33,837 during 2010 and was 83.4% of the national per capita income of $40,584.
New Mexico lost 10,800 wage jobs during 2010. The average job total was 801,600 in 2010 and 812,400, for a 1.3% decline.
The income growth came in the first half of 2010. From the first quarter to the second quarter, the increase was 1.7%. The quarterly growth rate dropped to 0.8% for the next two quarters, a pace that ranked 28th nationally for the fourth quarter.
New Mexico was one of ten states where earnings topped the pre-recession peak.
Transfer receipts are the biggest piece of New Mexico’s personal income at $1,464 million and increased 10.4% during 2010. Transfer receipts provided 52% of personal income in New Mexico during 2010.
Net earnings and dividends interest and rent are the other two components of personal income.
Earnings in finance, information, construction and utilities declined in New Mexico during 2010.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

The Didn’t-Do-Much Legislature

The 2011 regular session of the New Mexico Legislature ended Saturday. Over the weekend and before, the assessment was that little was happening. The consensus was that the situation stemmed from the continuing struggle with balancing spending with the amount of income expected. A second critical factor, I suggest, came from the Martinez administration’s decision to do little that was bold, campaign themes aside. Outside the public education changes, some of which passed, some of which got good discussion, there was little boldness. The administration allocating no money for the Commission on the Status of Women was cute, though not exactly bold. I haven’t heard whether the legislature put money for the Commission back into the budget. Session reports from the Legislative Council and the Legislative Finance Committee await.
The good news from the session is that things didn’t happen. The pundit world opined that this was bad. I disagree.
My two legislators, ranking members of the ultra-left, sent anguished letters to their constituents during the last week of the session. Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino and Rep. Gail Chasey thought all sorts of things were awful. Unhappiness on the left is good.
At the same time, a couple of the administration’s Republican red-meat issues also failed to pass, reinstituting the death penalty and pulling driver’s licenses from people in the country illegally. This, too, is good. I never believed the death penalty would come back and argued that pursuing it was a waste of time and political capital. Besides, death penalty cases are very expensive. I remain unconvinced that the driver’s license situation matters much.
Legislative inaction has a long and happy history in our republic.
In The Federalist, No. 73, Alexander Hamilton discussed “those who can properly estimate the mischiefs of that inconstancy and mutability in the laws.”
Hamilton said, “They will consider every institution calculated to restrain the excess of law making, and to keep things in the same state in which they happen to be at any given period, as much more likely to do good than harm; because it is favorable to greater stability in the system of legislation. The injury which may possibly be done by defeating a few good laws, will be amply compensated by the advantage of preventing a number of bad ones.”

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Blues Society Formed

The mission is to preserve and promote the cultural and entertainment heritage of blues music through education and advocacy.
The website is up and running. See: www.nmbluessociety.com.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

CNM, Wells Fargo Oppose PNM Rate Hike

So does the State of New Mexico.
Well, maybe these outfits don’t directly oppose PNM’s rate increase request. But they have provided a lot of money to a group that does which puts them in the oppose PNM camp.
In the case of the state the figure is over $100,000 from something called the individual development fund account. See below.
Wells Fargo Bank and Foundation threw in at least $25,001 with at least $10,001 coming from the CNM Foundation.
The numbers come from http://prosperityworks.net/about/our-funders. This is the financial supporters section of the website of Prosperity Works, which, it says on the website, prosperityworks.net, “builds the capacity of families, organizations and communities and advocates for policies that generate economic prosperity for all New Mexicans.”
I hadn’t heard of Prosperity Works until receiving a semi-coherent email from a staffer named Carmela Starace. Ms. Starace calls herself a group. “I am one of only a handful of groups still fighting…,” she said in the email. She said the group “advocates for low income New Mexicans called Prosperity Works.” Odd name for an individual, “Prosperity Works.”
Whatever. Dangling modifiers aside, the intent is clear. PNM is evil and due no rate increase. She says, “…this rate hike is just a way to deliver big payouts to PNM shareholders at a cost to New Mexicans.” Of course she forgets, or maybe doesn’t know that large numbers of New Mexicans, me included, own PNM shares. Nearly all of these New Mexican shareholders, again including me, are well short of being plutocrats. (“Plutocrats” is a V.B. Price word, by the way.)
Starace says the rate request includes “riders.” No idea what sort of riders. Bicyclists?
My temptation to be less unkind to Ms. Starace with regard to her writing is tempered by her having six other people on staff. Surely someone is available for editing. My only excuse for my typos is that I’m proofing my own stuff, a guarantee of lack of success. That’s no excuse, just a fact.
So do the group’s “partners,” which include two Albuquerque middle schools (Grant and Wilson), the CNM Center for Working Families, Los Alamos National Bank, New Mexico Bank and Trust and 11 other financial institutions.
Other “funders” include the McCune Foundation, that paragon of support for everything left in the state.
My only request here is that when outfits such as Prosperity Works roll in asking for money, understand that mostly guilt is what they’re peddling. ACORN ran this scam for years. The providers of the big bucks might deny opposing the PNM rate hike request. But by lending credibility—and a lot of money—to Prosperity Works, they become part of whatever is being advocated. They can’t assuage that guilt and support PNM.
According to http://www.dws.state.nm.us/dws-FOA.html, “The Business Service Division (of the Department of Workforce Services) is responsible for the administration of the statewide Family Opportunity Accounts Act program. The Family Opportunity Accounts Act provides $1.5 million to support Individual Development Accounts (IDA’s) targeted to families with children. FOA's are interest-bearing bank savings accounts, in which every deposit an individual or family makes is matched with state and private dollars. The funds in the account are restricted for use in placing a down payment on a home, starting or expanding a micro-business, or paying for college or vocational education.

Monday, March 14, 2011

February Albuquerque Homes Sales, Prices Up

Last month, February, was the first February in four years to show a year-over-year increase in the average and median prices of single family detached homes sold in Albuquerque during the month. It was February 2007 when prices last increased from February of the previous year. Before getting excited, note that the February median price of $171,500 was essentially the same as the $172,000 median for January and up only slightly, 1.06%, from February 2010.
February’s average price of $220,299 was up 9.5% from January and 6.6% from February 2010. The average price was lifted by the highest sales of premium priced homes in the past three years. The metro area scored sales of 45 homes priced at $400,000 or more during February including two sold at $1 million or more.
Not only did prices increase, the number of homes sold during February, 410, was up 7.9% from February 2010 and also up from January with a 13% increase.
This year’s February sales increase is something of a mystery for this observer. While no expert, I’ve been watching the metro real estate market for some time. The basic equation is population growth = job growth = homes sales. Our population growth is way down. Albuquerque continues to lose jobs; another 7,400 wage jobs disappeared during January for a January-to-January drop of 2,300.
For March, caution is the word. Sales during March 2010 jumped two-thirds over February 2010 and people grabbed the first time homebuyer tax credit that ended in April. That artificial stimulation doesn’t exist in 2011.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Ambiguity Rules. Some Job Numbers Up, Some Down.

New Mexico tied Arizona for the fourth largest percentage employment decline between January 2010 and January 2011, according to federal figures released yesterday. The decline was small, 0.3%.
On a seasonally unadjusted basis, that meant 785,900 had wage jobs in the state during January, down from 789,400 in January 2010. In December, 802,200 had wage jobs. The monthly decline probably is explained by the end of holiday retail jobs. I didn’t find any retail numbers on the federal report. (See: www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm)
With the seasonal adjustment, things change. New Mexico reports a 2,200-wage job increase (to 799,100) for January over December. Between January 2010 and January 2011, we lost 2,00 jobs.
This down and up ambiguity may mean the state is bumping along the bottom of its recession. The Department of Workforce Services hopes for more than bumping. DWS said in yesterday’s new release, “2011 appears set to be the turning point where we start to add jobs again in significant numbers.”
Note the use of “appears.” Also note “significant” new jobs. We’ll see. DWS’ optimism has been misplaced the past couple of years.
For employment, what a long strange trip it’s been. The peak for seasonally adjusted wage jobs came in February 2008 at 849,600. The December 2010 figure was 796,900.
Metro summaries follow. Over the weekend, I’ll try to look at some of the newly benchmarked data (see previous post for what that is about) and tease some trends. This analysis will be more difficult than need be due to DWS suppressing data. Banking and real estate hide under “financial activities.” Restaurants are buried in leisure and hospitality. Logging is added to mining. Back in the bad old days before computer publication, more was available. Go figure. The change happened under Bill Richardson.
Las Cruces: Until a 2,800-job loss in January, Las Cruces had an 11-month run of new jobs and was the star of the New Mexico metros. The job losses were seasonal, explained in part by the end of the fall semester and 2,200 fewer jobs in state government, mostly meaning New Mexico State University.
Santa Fe dropped 1,500 jobs during January. Yje declines spread across the metro economy. Still, the City Different managed a 400-job increase between January 2010 and January 2011.
Farmington’s 1,100-job loss in January left the year-over-year increase at 100 jobs.
Albuquerque continues to take the brunt of New Mexico’s recession. Year-over-year, the four-county metro lost 2,300 jobs. That’s two-thirds of the state’s loss occurring in an area with well under half the population.

Benchmarking Drops NM Job Totals

Every year the job counters at the state and national level “benchmark” the past estimates.
What that means, basically, is that they go back and clean up the numbers, eliminating (probably not completely) the errors that have crept in over the past year. The error has two sources, actual mistakes and sampling.
The sampling error is in the nature of the beast. The annual benchmark provides the base for the sample. But the further the estimator gets from the base, the shakier the sample becomes.
The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics explains this, nearly understandably.
The revisions moved New Mexico’s reported employment down a half percent for December 2010. That means last year was even worse than we thought.
A sample of the fed’s insight is pasted below along with the URL for the whole thing.
“With the release of the estimates for January 2011, non-farm payroll employment, hours, and earnings data for States and areas were revised to reflect the incorporation of March 2010 benchmarks and the recomputation of seasonal adjustment factors for State estimates. The revisions affect all not seasonally adjusted data from April 2009 forward, all seasonally adjusted data from January 2006 forward, and select series subject to historical revisions.
“The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey, is a Federal/State cooperative program that provides employment, hours, and earnings estimates… by estimating the number of jobs in the population from a sample of that population. Each month the CES program surveys about 140,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 410,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls…
“As with data from other sample surveys, CES estimates are subject to both sampling and non-sampling error. Sampling error is an unavoidable byproduct of forming an inference about a population based on a sample. The larger the sample is, relative to the population, the smaller the sampling error. The sample-to-population ratio varies across States and industries. Non-sampling error, by contrast, generally refers to errors in reporting and processing.”
Source: http://www.bls.gov/sae/benchmark2011.pdf

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Capitol Notes: Pigeons Settled

It was quiet at the Capitol this afternoon, not that legislators weren’t working. The Senate was locked away somewhere, I was told, dealing with the budget. The House was in session into mid-afternoon. Toward the end of the House session, Rep. Al Park, (D-Albuquerque) announced that his committee would meet at 4 p.m. and could expect to work until 1:30 a.m. or so tomorrow morning. The agenda was long, Park said, and he wanted to clear the bills.
Outside the west entrance to the Capitol, policy life continued. Two men were in conversation. One, wearing a black cowboy hat, a western jacket and boots and jeans, said, “They already killed it in the house. If I can go into senate rules and get a different audience of different legislators….’
Normalcy rules in the new parking garage west of the Capitol. The pigeons have found places for themselves. My first information about this came from the splotches on the ground very close to where I parked. I looked up and there were happy pigeons.
A sign at the garage entrance reserves 64 spaces for the Governor’s staff. My memory is that Gov. Martinez staff is reportedly rather fewer than 64.
In the Capitol offices, life sometimes isn’t so good these days. One department head has opted for an ultra-picayune approach and is being nasty about it. It’s working. A couple of staff have already left. But, based on my experience with nasty bosses, morale has to be less than zero and dropping. There’s a line to walk between cutting and getting the work done. This person seems well toward the destructive side.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Wilson Announces for Senate; Gives Great Speech

The concepts of “Heather Wilson” and “great speech” can no longer be considered mutually exclusive. The former Congresswoman from Albuquerque gave a rouser today when she announced her candidacy for the United States Senate seat now held by Jeff Bingaman, who is retiring.
Wilson’s speech really didn’t say anything new. It was the passion and the delivery that gave it the quality.
Wilson sketched her background and the roles she plays and has played—mother, wife, business owner, student at the Air Force Academy, member of Congress, business owner.
She is running, she said, because “I am deeply concerned about the direction of the country.” The administration’s choices are leading to big trouble. “The first thing we have to do is get our financial house in order.” She will oppose cap and trade. She will seek reforms to “fix the systems.” (She didn’t offer details, but then this was an announcement speech.”
Wilson mentioned the requirement that citizens purchase health insurance as being especially scary. “ObamaCare must be repealed and replaced.”
Along the way, the standard Republican social issues got attention, such as marriage being between and man and woman, that sort of thing.
For me, the significant happening, after the quality of Wilson’s speech, was the appearance of former Congressman and senatorial campaign loser (to Jeff Bingaman) Bill Redmond on the podium with his endorsement. Redmond, I suppose, was brought from his well-deserved political retirement to attest to Wilson’s very conservative bona fides. Redmond performed as asked. He said Wilson was a person of faith and aligned with conservative values.
Wilson’s press materials including endorsement statements from 41 present and former elected Republicans led by former Sen. Pete Domenici and former Congressman Manual Lujan. Many of the endorsers are current legislators. The other endorsers present at the event included three of the four 2010 Republican candidates for governor, Janice Arnold-Jones, Pete Domenici, Jr.; and Allen Weh; former Lt. Gov. Jack Stahl; former Land Commissioner Bill Humphries; current Albuquerque public safety chief and 2010 congressional loser (to Martin Heinrich), Darren White; Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry; Bloomfield Mayor Scott Eckstein; and, from Carlsbad, former State Sen. Don Kidd.
Endorsers on the stage even included New Mexico Music stars Al Hurricane and Al Hurricane Jr. Wow!
About the time the event ended, in keeping with today’s instant politics, Javier Gonzales, chairman of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, issued an email news release attacking Wilson and seeking donations.
The endorsements and putting Redmond on the podium presumably are designed to show broad support for Wilson across the Republican Party, especially among the very, very, very conservative types. I hope it works. Lt.Gov. John Sanchez, he of the humongous ego, reportedly has been considering the race. All I can say of Sanchez as Lt. Gov., or as 2002 candidate for governor, is that he is handsome and knows how to run a roofing company.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Having a “Dental Therapist” in Town Sounds Good. But Who Pays?

Donald Weidemann, writing in today’s Albuquerque, threw out the entirely debatable notion that it is a bad thing to have to drive “two hours to Amarillo or over four hours to Albuquerque every time we need to see a dentist.” He said, “Getting a dental checkup shouldn’t be an all day ordeal.”
Weidemann knows something about medical service availability in small communities. He is CEO of Union County General Hospital in Clayton, which is a good way from anywhere.
Having a handy dentist might be considered part of “social overhead.” The phrase comes from Joel Mokyr’s “The Enlightened Economy.” Governments provide public goods and social overhead, Mokyr says.
Weidemann was pitching a bill sponsored by his representative, Dennis Roch, a Texico Republican who works for the government. The bill would allow dental therapists, which sound a bit like nurse practitioners, except for dental. The bill is House Bill 495. On Feb 24, the House Health and Government Affairs Committee sent it, without recommendation, to the Business and Industry Committee, which, as of today, showed no action.
This sounds like a good idea. My only question is: who would pay?
If a single government dollar is involved in solving this problem, then I object. And given that it involves health care, the government has to be lurking just behind. That’s because the proposal, for all its virtues, would expand government at a time when that is an especially bad idea.
No doubt, in constructing his argument, Weideman inadvertently overlooked the other dentists in the area. According to the electronic yellow pages (www.dexknows.com) there are three in Raton, the one in Springer, the nine in Las Vegas, apparently a veritable hotbed of tooth workers.
Finally, for people in small communities, doing many things is “an all day ordeal.” That’s the way it is. People cope by combining big city tasks.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

The False Promise of Green Energy

This is a new book. "News from PERC," the email newsletter of the Property and Environment Research Center (perc.org) says, "PERC fellows Roger Meiners and Andy Morriss along with William T. Bogart and Andrew Dorchak just published The False Promise of Green Energy in an effort to help you decide whether green energy proposals are worthwhile. PERC's executive director, Terry Anderson, says this book 'forces you to ask whether the 'green' in green energy refers to the environmental benefits or the vast sums of money wasted on subsidies.'
"Preview and purchase the book from Cato. Also available in eBook."

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

NM Technology, Science Development Rank Drops

After a six-place leap from 20th to 14th from 2002 to 2004, New Mexico’s rank on the Milken Institute’s State Technology and Science Index dropped one place per year for the rest of the Richardson administration. New Mexico placed 18th on the 2010 index, released last month, with an index rank of 59.05.
The index measures how states “have successfully built and leveraged their science and technology resources to create diversified economies for the 21st century,” says an article in the February-March 2011 issue of Innovation. The magazine, which calls itself “America’s Journal of Technology Commercialization” and which is based in Albuquerque, didn’t mention New Mexico’s rank. The omission is no surprise as Innovation has a national audience.
Massachusetts is number one with an 82.61 index rank. Five states including neighboring Colorado and Utah sport scores over 70. The index has 79 “indicators,” aggregated into five major components. The components, with New Mexico’s rank in parenthesis, are: Human Capital Investment (25); Research and Development Inputs (10); Risk Capital and Entrepreneurial Infrastructure (23); Technology and Science Work Force (25); Technology Concentration and Dynamism (17).
Human capital investment means education, starting with the number of all recent degrees in science and engineering per 1,000 civilian workers and including SAT scores and the percentage of the population 25 and older with degrees.
The technology and science workforce includes agricultural and food scientists, various engineers and computer professionals, microbiologists and physicists.
New Mexico’s strength remains the national laboratories. The research and development inputs group includes federal research and development dollars per capita. Here New Mexico holds a solid second place behind Maryland.
For more see www.milkeninstitute.org/tech/tech2010.taf. Registration, which is required, is free.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Martinez Administration Priorities Listed

For those remotely familiar with New Mexico’s legislature, grand revelations did not appear at yesterday’s “Ringside at the Roundhouse” luncheon program at the meeting of the New Mexico Chapter of NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association.
The speakers were Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling, Inc., and Kent Walz, editor of the Albuquerque Journal. Sanderoff did most of the talking.
Overall the presentation offered an introduction to the legislature. The most valuable item was a list of priorities of the Martinez administration, as deduced by the Journal. In order, those priorities are:
1. No tax increase.
2. Education reform. (The administration’s three main education bills seem to be moving.)
3. Crime and public corruption.
4. Reducing the regulatory burden on business, especially environmental regulations.
5. No more driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants.
6. Reducing film incentives.
7. Require a photo identification to vote.
8. Minimize spending cuts.
To a fair extent, the list reflects Martinez’ prior life as a district attorney. Except for the education package, the list does not offer is any “bold change,” any rethinking of the role of state government. That’s too bad.