Turnaround time: All four of the metro areas showed job increases from November 2013 to November 2014. This followed all four metro areas gaining job between October 2013 and October 2014. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the figures around noon today. The metro areas growth rates were well below the statewide wage job increase of 1.7%, but at least the metros were in positive percentage territory. It’s been a while.
The state job growth ties for 24th with the District of Columbia, big jump from the performance earlier in the year when New Mexico was last and losing jobs, gaining the title of the nation’s worst economy. For the November to November year, Alaska was the biggest loser at minus 0.3 percent followed by Mississippi at minus 0.1.
The 2,900 new wage jobs in Albuquerque, DWS said, represent “the largest of only four months of year-over-year growth for Albuquerque over the last 15 months." Education and health services was the big Albuquerque gainer with 2,400 new jobs, year over year, accounting for 83% of the metro increase. Retail trade, with 1,000 new jobs, was the other big gainer. The losers continued performing down to expectations: Manufacturing (-600), professional and business services (-500), construction (-300).
Of the smaller metro areas, Farmington was the November to November champ with 500 new jobs. Las Cruces and Santa Fe both added 300 jobs.
Las Cruces was the only metro area showing a drop in government employment with a 400-job loss split among the state and the feds.
Friday, December 26, 2014
Friday, December 19, 2014
November Job Growth "Statistically Significant"
New Mexico scored “statistical significance” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for both the October to November job increase of 4,000 and the 14,700 job year-over-year improvement. Both figures are seasonally adjusted. The job report was released this morning.
Withdraw the seasonal adjusting and the job increases become 14,100 for the year, or 1.7%, and 3,600 for the month.
Among the larger and / or important sectors, education and health services added 6,100 jobs, year-over year, mining (+2,100), retail (+1,900), holiday hiring perhaps, and finance (+1,400).
For November, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.4%. Two counties hang in there with unemployment rates greater than 10%. They are Luna (16.2%) and Mora (13.2%). Three counties have unemployment rates under 4%. They are Eddy (3.6%), Lea (3.7%) and Los Alamos (3.8%).
Two key basic-industry sectors were the losers from November 2013 to November 2014. Manufacturing dropped 1,500 jobs and professional and business services lost 400. Government chipped in with 600 fewer jobs, a decline shared by the feds, the state and the locals.
The year-over-year seasonally unadjusted preliminary job growth rate the past six months have been: October (1.1%), September (0.8%), August (0.6%), July (0.5%), June (0.3%) and May (0.1%).
Observers of such things happily observe that the state’s job growth is approaching the long term average. That’s the good news. The bad news, the reality, is the mediocre long term average growth of two percent or so.
Withdraw the seasonal adjusting and the job increases become 14,100 for the year, or 1.7%, and 3,600 for the month.
Among the larger and / or important sectors, education and health services added 6,100 jobs, year-over year, mining (+2,100), retail (+1,900), holiday hiring perhaps, and finance (+1,400).
For November, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.4%. Two counties hang in there with unemployment rates greater than 10%. They are Luna (16.2%) and Mora (13.2%). Three counties have unemployment rates under 4%. They are Eddy (3.6%), Lea (3.7%) and Los Alamos (3.8%).
Two key basic-industry sectors were the losers from November 2013 to November 2014. Manufacturing dropped 1,500 jobs and professional and business services lost 400. Government chipped in with 600 fewer jobs, a decline shared by the feds, the state and the locals.
The year-over-year seasonally unadjusted preliminary job growth rate the past six months have been: October (1.1%), September (0.8%), August (0.6%), July (0.5%), June (0.3%) and May (0.1%).
Observers of such things happily observe that the state’s job growth is approaching the long term average. That’s the good news. The bad news, the reality, is the mediocre long term average growth of two percent or so.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
November Abq Homes Sales Up From November 2013
Metro Albuquerque sales of single family detached homes weren’t all that bad during November, given that it was November. The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the figures yesterday.
But sales, 601 homes during November, did jump from the seasonal cliff with a 21%, or 157 unit, drop from October. The decline more than made up for the 55 home increase in sales during warm October over September. Coincidentally, sales dropped 157 homes in November 2013 from October 2013.
The good news about November’s 601 sales is that they represented a second month of year-over-year increase from 2013 after six months of year-over-year drop.
The 738 pending sales during November delivered a third consecutive monthly year-over-year increase after 11 months of decline.
The movement of pending sales to closing went slack in November as the 601 November sales were just 72% of the October pending sales. October closed sales (758) were 89% of the 854 September pending sales.
Both median and average prices showed a second month of year-over-year increase. However the median price, $175,000 during October and November, needs a $10,000 increase this month to match $185,000 median of December 2013. November’s average price of $215,899 was 3.8% ahead of November 2013 and needs a $4,000 increase to catch December 2013.
For the year, new listings peaked a 1,756 during May. Pending sales peaked at 996 during May and closed sales topped at 283 during July.
But sales, 601 homes during November, did jump from the seasonal cliff with a 21%, or 157 unit, drop from October. The decline more than made up for the 55 home increase in sales during warm October over September. Coincidentally, sales dropped 157 homes in November 2013 from October 2013.
The good news about November’s 601 sales is that they represented a second month of year-over-year increase from 2013 after six months of year-over-year drop.
The 738 pending sales during November delivered a third consecutive monthly year-over-year increase after 11 months of decline.
The movement of pending sales to closing went slack in November as the 601 November sales were just 72% of the October pending sales. October closed sales (758) were 89% of the 854 September pending sales.
Both median and average prices showed a second month of year-over-year increase. However the median price, $175,000 during October and November, needs a $10,000 increase this month to match $185,000 median of December 2013. November’s average price of $215,899 was 3.8% ahead of November 2013 and needs a $4,000 increase to catch December 2013.
For the year, new listings peaked a 1,756 during May. Pending sales peaked at 996 during May and closed sales topped at 283 during July.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
NM Pensions Fund Investments In "Risky Assets"
New Mexico has 85% of its public pension fund investments in "risky assets" which means stocks, real estate, private equity and perhaps hedge funds, reported a Wall Street Journal opinion piece today. The article was by Andrew G. Biggs, identified as a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Biggs mentioned six states. New Mexico was the champion embracer of risky investments. The other states were California (75%), the Texas Teachers Plan (81%), Pennsylvania (82%), Illinois (75%), New York (72%).
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Something New: All 4 Metros Add Jobs
The state’s four metro areas, all of them, added wage jobs during the year between October 2013 and October 2014, the Department of workforce Solutions reported yesterday.
The number of new jobs wasn’t large, just 1,200 among Albuquerque (+300), Las Cruces (+200), Santa Fe (+100) and Farmington (+600). Only Farmington managed a percentage increase above one with 1.2% growth. Hanging below a half percent were Albuquerque (+0.1%), Las Cruces (+0.3%) and Santa Fe (0.2%). For all four metros, job growth between September and October brought the area into positive job growth for the year.
Such tiny increases might conceal a rounding error or a figure within the job survey’s margin of error.
Still, it’s been a long time, memory says, since all four metros grew on a year-over-year basis.
The national economic performance may provide the best news for the state. That’s because the nation drives much of what happens in the state. During the third quarter, the gross domestic product grew at a 3.9% annual rate. Digging into the national performance, media wizards at the Wall Street Journal find no excitement, but a 2% plus growth rate provide little basis for real complaint.
The metro performance for the year meant the rural counties didn’t have to make up for metro losses to post a statewide increase, which was 9,100-jobs. The 26 rural counties added 7,900 jobs during the year.
New Mexico tied Idaho for 34th place among the states in job production performance. Alaska was the only state losing jobs during the year. New Mexico’s four neighboring states all finished in the top ten for job growth percentage. Texas was 2nd; Utah 3rd; Arizona 8th, and Colorado 9th.
Albuquerque’s growth came with education and health services (+1,800), aided by small increases in five sectors, offsetting losses in manufacturing (-1,000), construction (-700), leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and wholesale trade.
In Las Cruces, education and health services and professional and business services together brought 700 new jobs. Six sectors showed no growth in Santa Fe with the rest either up a bit or down a bit.
The number of new jobs wasn’t large, just 1,200 among Albuquerque (+300), Las Cruces (+200), Santa Fe (+100) and Farmington (+600). Only Farmington managed a percentage increase above one with 1.2% growth. Hanging below a half percent were Albuquerque (+0.1%), Las Cruces (+0.3%) and Santa Fe (0.2%). For all four metros, job growth between September and October brought the area into positive job growth for the year.
Such tiny increases might conceal a rounding error or a figure within the job survey’s margin of error.
Still, it’s been a long time, memory says, since all four metros grew on a year-over-year basis.
The national economic performance may provide the best news for the state. That’s because the nation drives much of what happens in the state. During the third quarter, the gross domestic product grew at a 3.9% annual rate. Digging into the national performance, media wizards at the Wall Street Journal find no excitement, but a 2% plus growth rate provide little basis for real complaint.
The metro performance for the year meant the rural counties didn’t have to make up for metro losses to post a statewide increase, which was 9,100-jobs. The 26 rural counties added 7,900 jobs during the year.
New Mexico tied Idaho for 34th place among the states in job production performance. Alaska was the only state losing jobs during the year. New Mexico’s four neighboring states all finished in the top ten for job growth percentage. Texas was 2nd; Utah 3rd; Arizona 8th, and Colorado 9th.
Albuquerque’s growth came with education and health services (+1,800), aided by small increases in five sectors, offsetting losses in manufacturing (-1,000), construction (-700), leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and wholesale trade.
In Las Cruces, education and health services and professional and business services together brought 700 new jobs. Six sectors showed no growth in Santa Fe with the rest either up a bit or down a bit.
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