Friday, January 30, 2015

State Loses Education Jobs During November

The Department of Workforce Solutions filled in the blanks on the December job report, released in summary Tuesday by DWS and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
As reported Tuesday, the state gained 13,500 jobs for the year between December 2013 and December 2014, but lost 1,500 jobs between November and December. (I originally said 1,600 jobs were lost. Sorry.)
Government accounted for all the jobs lost over the month. State government education dropped 1,300. Local government education dropped 400. Overall, government lost 1,700 jobs between November and December, but only 300 for the December to December year.
For the year, only government, manufacturing and leisure and hospitality lost jobs. Education and health services was the big year-over-year gainer with 6,800 more jobs statewide, followed by mining and other services. Finance supposedly added 1,200 jobs, but Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe showed no added jobs in the sector. Metro Albuquerque (+3,400) and Farmington (+800) were the metro job gainers for the year while Las Cruces showed no change and Santa Fe dropped 100. The 4,100 jobs added in the metro areas mean the rural counties have 9,400 new jobs, including, it is reasonable to guess, nearly all those 1,500 new mining jobs. The mining job growth seems likely to change due to falling oil prices. The question is when.
New Mexico tied Rhode Island and Alabama for 23rd place nationally in percentage job growth for the year. Mississippi was the only state to lose jobs over the year with a 100-job decline.
Given that the November to December losses concentrated in government education, maybe one can focus on the private sector gains and be happy. I'm not there yet.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Jobs Down From November, Up From December 2013

New Mexico added 13,500 wage jobs in the year from December 2013 to December 2014. Not quite the 14,700 jobs that appeared in the year ending in November, but not at all bad considering. The percentage growth was 1.7%.
The Department of Workforce Solutions, which released the figures today, points out that, “Between April and November 2014, job growth improved substantially (from -0.6 percent to 1.8 percent).” The real consideration goes back to the rule that not a trend does one data point make.
Give me an increase for January that remains in the vicinity of the 1.7% year over year growth and perhaps a victory proclamation can be issued. Until then…
Still, the news is not all jolly. New Mexico managed the second largest month over month job decline in December with 1,600 fewer jobs. Our percentage job loss in December (-0.2%) also tied for second with Delaware and Minnesota, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released numbers today.
In case you wondered, DWS in its release talked only about the year-over-year happiness and said nothing about the month-over-month losses.
Gosh.
Not only did we lose jobs between November and December, our unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in November to 6.1% in December. Interesting trick: Fewer jobs, lower unemployment rate.
More later.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Abq Homes Sales Up In December, Down For 2014

So much for seasonal behavior in the sales of metro Albuquerque single family detached homes. The presumption is that sales drop through January or February as the weather becomes colder or darker. But no, in December sales were 656 homes, a 55-home or nine percent increase from November’s sales of 601 homes. December sales were one more than December 2013 when 655 homes sold.
The 71 sales of condominiums and townhouses were 14 more than November, a 25% increase.
The December sales closed were 89% of November’s 738 pending sales. Those homes that closed sales were on the market an average of 71 days, up four days or six percent from November.
The average sales price for a detached home was $211,523 during December, down $8,386, or 3.8% from the year ago period. The average price also dropped from November with a $45,376 decline, or two percent.
December’s median sales price, $177,000, was up $2,000 from November but down $8,000 or 4.3% from December 2013.
Closed sales increased over the 2013 period for the third consecutive month while pending have been up, year over year, for four months. These increases follow months of year over year decline.
Counting both detached homes and townhouses and condos, closed sales were 9,254 during 2014, down 293 homes or three percent from 2013. Pending sales, 11,317 homes during 2014, were 1,631 units or 12.6% over 2013.
The Greater Albuquerque Board of Realtors released the December sales report yesterday. See gaar.com.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Oil, Gas Exploration Cut

Yesterday I got a letter from Universal Land Services, LLC, of Tulsa. Universal had been trying to lease a small mineral interest I may have in Payne County, Oklahoma, which is home to Stillwater and Oklahoma State University. The letter said, in part, "Due to current market conditions, I regret to inform you,the above referenced section is now outside our leasing parameters. I am rescinding the offer to lease."
Putting it another way, Universal's Angelo Pezzulo said, "Too bad, so sad, the world changed, you lose." I'm not worried. I figure oil and gas prices will go back up. The Woodford Shale formation under Payne County, which has been a hot oil play, isn't going anywhere.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Falling Oil Prices to Hit NM

New Mexico will take the fifth ranking hit from falling oil prices, according to a report from http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-states-most-hurt-by-falling-oil-prices-2015-01-08?dist=afterbell.

"New Mexico

There’s nothing enchanting about what will happen to New Mexico thanks to falling oil prices: This state, which will get hurt in terms of economic impact (it will cost them $2.19 billion in 2015, according to MoneyRates) and jobs, lands in the No. 5 spot on this list."

The impact will come in Lea and Eddy counties and with state government revenue. Oil and gas have spent a bunch of years saving New Mexico from itself. Maybe this will get us to grow up. Ummmm, not likely. We can hope, though.