It’s the last week of Albuquerque’s first go round for mayor. (I’m presuming a run-off because there are so many candidates.) The mail deluge has begun. The Monday group had five items, three arguing the sick day ordinance that would lay a bunch of detailed regulations on businesses (and non-profits, I wonder?).
The pro-ordnance item was an 11” x 6” item hanging the virtues of the proposal on the benefit to “domestic violence and sexual assault survivors.” It came from the very left Center for Civic Policy and others.
The other four mailers were all 8.5” x 11”, full color. Two pitched against the sick ordinance. One was from the Albuquerque for a Healthy Economy, the other from Forward Albuquerque which listed as treasurer venerable Albuquerque civic sort Sherman McCorkle.
The other two Monday mailers were from mayor candidates. Republican Dan Lewis pitched his anti-crime message using yellow headlines which by definition are barely readable (who does his graphics?) and attacked liberal Democrats Tim Keller and Brian Colon. The Lewis mailer did not identify him as a Republican. Wayne Johnson identified himself as a “conservative Republican” and attacked Keller, Colon and Lewis as “big spenders.”
The mailers today (Wednesday) were three. Wayne Johnson said, “Dan Lewis gave control of our police to Barack Obama.” The tiny type return address was the only place Johnson’s name appeared. The Dan Lewis item went to four pages (an 11” x 17” sheet) to say, “We can’t afford Brian Colon or Tim Keller as mayor.”
The third item today was a 9” x 6” card from Americans for Prosperity New Mexico attacking the sick leave ordinance. The group is a Koch sponsored organization that has recently re-staffed in New Mexico. The printer was in Los Lunas.
A person brought a pitch from the NMPIRG education fund to our door. PIRG is another lefty group with all the answers for the downtrodden. PIRG’s leave behind piece was a 3.5” x 8.5” full color flyer.
An advantage of the 8.5” x 11” mailed cards is that they are easy to stack on the way to the trash. Mail is a necessary medium, but finding something to stand out from the stack would be a good use of design money.
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Rio Arriba Leads in Substance Abuse Deaths
From the 2017 Distressed Communities Index, produced by the Economic Innovation Group (eig.org)
“Mental and substance abuse
disorders take their heaviest toll on
distressed counties.
Mortality rates from mental and
substance abuse disorders are 64 percent
higher in distressed counties than in
prosperous ones: 10 deaths per 100,000
people in 2014 in the average prosperous
county compared to 16.5 in the average
distressed one.
The most severe pockets of these
diseases are located in Appalachia
(particularly southern West Virginia
and eastern Kentucky) and on Native
American reservations in the West. In
McDowell and Wyoming Counties, West
Virginia, the mortality rate climbs to
nearly 60 per 100,000 people—that is
four and a half times the national rate
of 13.4. In such corners of Appalachia,
mortality rates from mental and
substance abuse disorders have
increased by more than 1,000 percent
since 1980. In Rio Arriba County, New
Mexico, the mortality rate from these
disorders spikes even further to 73.2
deaths per 100,000 adults.”
“Mental and substance abuse
disorders take their heaviest toll on
distressed counties.
Mortality rates from mental and
substance abuse disorders are 64 percent
higher in distressed counties than in
prosperous ones: 10 deaths per 100,000
people in 2014 in the average prosperous
county compared to 16.5 in the average
distressed one.
The most severe pockets of these
diseases are located in Appalachia
(particularly southern West Virginia
and eastern Kentucky) and on Native
American reservations in the West. In
McDowell and Wyoming Counties, West
Virginia, the mortality rate climbs to
nearly 60 per 100,000 people—that is
four and a half times the national rate
of 13.4. In such corners of Appalachia,
mortality rates from mental and
substance abuse disorders have
increased by more than 1,000 percent
since 1980. In Rio Arriba County, New
Mexico, the mortality rate from these
disorders spikes even further to 73.2
deaths per 100,000 adults.”
Monday, September 25, 2017
Abq Mayor Berry on Crime: I didn’t Do it
If the time spent on a topic during a speech measures the priority of the speaker, then outgoing Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry, the priority has been homelessness. Berry gave what was billed as his Last State of the City report today to NAIOPNM, the commercial developers group.
NAIOPNM has provided Berry a receptive venue. The developers stood to applaud a number of times during his speech. NAIOPNM meeting at the Marriott in Uptown Albuquerque.
Crime finished second. “I didn’t do it” sums Berry’s explanation of the increased crime on his watch.
Berry skated on the ART project, the more than controversial destroying of miles of mostly Central Ave. for fancy buses. (Through the core of downtown ART jogs to a block north of Central.) ART got perhaps five minutes of soothing words claiming that all will be fine eventually. Berry thanked Central Avenue businesses for hanging in there during ART construction, an amazing statement. Berry further claimed that ART will persuade some families to go from two cars to one because of being able to ride ART to work. Sure. Right.
The crime increase during Berry’s second term comes from two system factors, Berry said. The first is the roughly 50% drop in the number of people in the county jail, a result of national movement to let less troubling criminals out of jail.
The jail was overcrowded, Berry said. Reducing the number of people in jail is “laudable,” but “it has gone too far too fast.”
The big reduction in the number of police officers came from changes in public employee retirement programs that induced employees to take the money and retire.
Two questions: First, I can’t imagine that Berry’s administration had nothing to do with developing the policies that reduced the number of people in jail or that changed the retirement programs. Second, it would be interesting to connect the jail policies with the fact that Albuquerque as a cadre of people for whom their job, as in an 8-to-5 job, is stealing cars. These people score a half-dozen or so cars each day they “work,” the cops tell us.
Much of the celebration of homeless program “success” came during a lengthy separate segment before Berry talked.
Post homeless and pre-Berry it was family time. Berry’s wife Maria Medina went on about the glories of being first lady and of serving Albuquerque. Mayoral parents were introduced. I’m not sure which set. All very chummy.
Berry gave the expected list of accomplishments. The economy is growing (well, sort of). Government is more efficient. There has been $33 million in “efficiency” savings. New companies have come. The spending increase has been kept “right at the rate of inflation.”
“Downtown is fast becoming” an arts and entrepreneurial community. Of course Berry didn’t mention that downtown remains pretty much empty due to the departure of banks and PNM administrative staff.
During Berry’s administration the city has “completed / initiated” 901 “projects” costing $1.27 billion, a Berry handout said. This is an exaggeration. For example, for what I presume to be the biggest project, the $93 million rebuilding of the Interstate 25 and Paseo del Norte interchange, the city may have initiated the project, but fuzzy memory suggest that came long before Berry was mayor. The feds provided $8 million and $29.7 million came from the state, according to a December 14, 2014 Albuquerque Journal story.
Albuquerque’s basic services are among the best in the country Berry said. Wallethub.com, a website, rates Albuquerque as one of the three best run cities in the country, he said, according to my notes. I checked Wallethub. A July 17 report there puts Albuquerque as 23rd for the quality of city services and Las Cruces as 6th. Maybe I heard wrong.
Two videos provided a break from the talking. One was a FoxNews story about the awful consequences of California letting people out of jail. The other celebrated new light around Albuquerque.
NAIOPNM has provided Berry a receptive venue. The developers stood to applaud a number of times during his speech. NAIOPNM meeting at the Marriott in Uptown Albuquerque.
Crime finished second. “I didn’t do it” sums Berry’s explanation of the increased crime on his watch.
Berry skated on the ART project, the more than controversial destroying of miles of mostly Central Ave. for fancy buses. (Through the core of downtown ART jogs to a block north of Central.) ART got perhaps five minutes of soothing words claiming that all will be fine eventually. Berry thanked Central Avenue businesses for hanging in there during ART construction, an amazing statement. Berry further claimed that ART will persuade some families to go from two cars to one because of being able to ride ART to work. Sure. Right.
The crime increase during Berry’s second term comes from two system factors, Berry said. The first is the roughly 50% drop in the number of people in the county jail, a result of national movement to let less troubling criminals out of jail.
The jail was overcrowded, Berry said. Reducing the number of people in jail is “laudable,” but “it has gone too far too fast.”
The big reduction in the number of police officers came from changes in public employee retirement programs that induced employees to take the money and retire.
Two questions: First, I can’t imagine that Berry’s administration had nothing to do with developing the policies that reduced the number of people in jail or that changed the retirement programs. Second, it would be interesting to connect the jail policies with the fact that Albuquerque as a cadre of people for whom their job, as in an 8-to-5 job, is stealing cars. These people score a half-dozen or so cars each day they “work,” the cops tell us.
Much of the celebration of homeless program “success” came during a lengthy separate segment before Berry talked.
Post homeless and pre-Berry it was family time. Berry’s wife Maria Medina went on about the glories of being first lady and of serving Albuquerque. Mayoral parents were introduced. I’m not sure which set. All very chummy.
Berry gave the expected list of accomplishments. The economy is growing (well, sort of). Government is more efficient. There has been $33 million in “efficiency” savings. New companies have come. The spending increase has been kept “right at the rate of inflation.”
“Downtown is fast becoming” an arts and entrepreneurial community. Of course Berry didn’t mention that downtown remains pretty much empty due to the departure of banks and PNM administrative staff.
During Berry’s administration the city has “completed / initiated” 901 “projects” costing $1.27 billion, a Berry handout said. This is an exaggeration. For example, for what I presume to be the biggest project, the $93 million rebuilding of the Interstate 25 and Paseo del Norte interchange, the city may have initiated the project, but fuzzy memory suggest that came long before Berry was mayor. The feds provided $8 million and $29.7 million came from the state, according to a December 14, 2014 Albuquerque Journal story.
Albuquerque’s basic services are among the best in the country Berry said. Wallethub.com, a website, rates Albuquerque as one of the three best run cities in the country, he said, according to my notes. I checked Wallethub. A July 17 report there puts Albuquerque as 23rd for the quality of city services and Las Cruces as 6th. Maybe I heard wrong.
Two videos provided a break from the talking. One was a FoxNews story about the awful consequences of California letting people out of jail. The other celebrated new light around Albuquerque.
Friday, September 22, 2017
NM Adds 8,600 Wage Jobs in August
As reported here last week, New Mexico added 8,600 wage jobs, on a not seasonally adjusted basis, during the year from August 2016 to August 2017. Also as reported, our unemployment now ranks third nationally. The numbers come from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions.
Seasonally adjusted, the statewide wage job gain was 5,700.
State job growth continues on a good track, for us, anyway. Year-over-year growth was 7,500 in May, 15,600 in June and 8,400 in July. Given the state’s economic weaknesses and track record the past few years, I’m not willing to predict anything. It may be a dead cat bounce.
More detailed numbers came today from DWS’ Labor Market Review newsletter. See
www.dws.state.nm.us.
Albuquerque added 4,200 jobs for the year. Our other three metro areas netted no jobs during the year. That means the 26 rural counties scored 4,400 new wage jobs over the year.
For the small metros, the job score was: Farmington, – 300, Las Cruces, + 100, Santa Fe + 200.
Sidenote: there is all sorts of construction in the core of downtown Las Cruces. One corollary effect is that, as of mid-September, the location of the Chamber of Commerce was a mystery. Days before my frustrating search for the chamber, it had moved from a nearly empty Loretto Towne Centre (notice the oh-so-cool spelling) to a building, an old home, now renovated, with street exposure, but not yet a sign. Nor had my phone figured out the change.
The state added 8,400 jobs during the month August. That suggests that all but 200 of the yearly gain of 8,600 was in August. I’m not sure it quite works that way, but certainly the annual job growth has been recent as opposed to say, last fall.
By contrast, Albuquerque’s August growth of 800 jobs, while decent, was modest compared to the state. For Albuquerque’s year, Education and Health Services (EHS) led the growth with 2,100 new jobs, followed by construction (+1,500) and finance (1,200). State government lost 600 jobs during the year. Manufacturing lost 500.
Seasonally adjusted, the statewide wage job gain was 5,700.
State job growth continues on a good track, for us, anyway. Year-over-year growth was 7,500 in May, 15,600 in June and 8,400 in July. Given the state’s economic weaknesses and track record the past few years, I’m not willing to predict anything. It may be a dead cat bounce.
More detailed numbers came today from DWS’ Labor Market Review newsletter. See
www.dws.state.nm.us.
Albuquerque added 4,200 jobs for the year. Our other three metro areas netted no jobs during the year. That means the 26 rural counties scored 4,400 new wage jobs over the year.
For the small metros, the job score was: Farmington, – 300, Las Cruces, + 100, Santa Fe + 200.
Sidenote: there is all sorts of construction in the core of downtown Las Cruces. One corollary effect is that, as of mid-September, the location of the Chamber of Commerce was a mystery. Days before my frustrating search for the chamber, it had moved from a nearly empty Loretto Towne Centre (notice the oh-so-cool spelling) to a building, an old home, now renovated, with street exposure, but not yet a sign. Nor had my phone figured out the change.
The state added 8,400 jobs during the month August. That suggests that all but 200 of the yearly gain of 8,600 was in August. I’m not sure it quite works that way, but certainly the annual job growth has been recent as opposed to say, last fall.
By contrast, Albuquerque’s August growth of 800 jobs, while decent, was modest compared to the state. For Albuquerque’s year, Education and Health Services (EHS) led the growth with 2,100 new jobs, followed by construction (+1,500) and finance (1,200). State government lost 600 jobs during the year. Manufacturing lost 500.
Friday, September 15, 2017
July to August Employment Jump Called "Significant"
New Mexico’s unemployment rate showed real change in the year from August 2016 to August 2017 by dropping half a point from 6.8% to 6.3%. The state skipped what has been the typical tenth of a point change.
Alaska remains the unemployment rate leader followed by Washington, D.C., at 6.4%. We continue in third place, though with a greater distance from Alaska.
The change happened with a slight increase in the labor force, which grew about 2,700 during the year to 929,151, seasonally adjusted. Employment grew 6,700 and sucked around 4,800 people from the unemployed ranks, year, over the August to August year. Life isn’t entirely rosy, however. The labor force has dropped by 4,700, still seasonally adjusted, since June.
The state’s 5,700-person one month increase, seasonally adjusted, in employment was called statistically significant by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which produces the numbers. The drop in the unemployment rate, however cheery, was not significant.
Looking at the sectors, without seasonal adjustment, the biggest jump came in leisure and hospitality (L&H) with 4,000 new wage jobs over the year and total wage jobs of 102,800 for August. L&H is mostly tourism. The sector attracts sneering at the modest earnings from restaurants, hotels and small retailers. The L&H businesses spread across the state, though they concentrate in Taos, Ruidoso, Santa Fe and Albuquerque. The sneerers are wrong.
The professional and business services group with 3,800 new wage jobs for the year came just behind L&H. These are the consulting engineers, software types, lawyers, accountants and landscape architects.
Construction produced 3,000 new wage jobs, year over year. Go Figure. But I read that the Facebook job outside Los Lunas has 800 people working, soon to have 1,000. But those jobs will go away within months.
The education and health services group, for some time the state’s job leader as Medicaid ramped up, produced 2,200 wage jobs over the year with a curious mix. The education part showed 2,200 new jobs and health services lost 200.
Among the metros, the labor force in Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe was flat. Farmington was down.
Side note: Las Cruces has considerable construction happening downtown. Finding the chamber of commerce this week was a pain.
Alaska remains the unemployment rate leader followed by Washington, D.C., at 6.4%. We continue in third place, though with a greater distance from Alaska.
The change happened with a slight increase in the labor force, which grew about 2,700 during the year to 929,151, seasonally adjusted. Employment grew 6,700 and sucked around 4,800 people from the unemployed ranks, year, over the August to August year. Life isn’t entirely rosy, however. The labor force has dropped by 4,700, still seasonally adjusted, since June.
The state’s 5,700-person one month increase, seasonally adjusted, in employment was called statistically significant by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which produces the numbers. The drop in the unemployment rate, however cheery, was not significant.
Looking at the sectors, without seasonal adjustment, the biggest jump came in leisure and hospitality (L&H) with 4,000 new wage jobs over the year and total wage jobs of 102,800 for August. L&H is mostly tourism. The sector attracts sneering at the modest earnings from restaurants, hotels and small retailers. The L&H businesses spread across the state, though they concentrate in Taos, Ruidoso, Santa Fe and Albuquerque. The sneerers are wrong.
The professional and business services group with 3,800 new wage jobs for the year came just behind L&H. These are the consulting engineers, software types, lawyers, accountants and landscape architects.
Construction produced 3,000 new wage jobs, year over year. Go Figure. But I read that the Facebook job outside Los Lunas has 800 people working, soon to have 1,000. But those jobs will go away within months.
The education and health services group, for some time the state’s job leader as Medicaid ramped up, produced 2,200 wage jobs over the year with a curious mix. The education part showed 2,200 new jobs and health services lost 200.
Among the metros, the labor force in Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe was flat. Farmington was down.
Side note: Las Cruces has considerable construction happening downtown. Finding the chamber of commerce this week was a pain.
Monday, September 11, 2017
Jobs and Economic Diversification: Abq Journal Story of 9/11/17
Being good at her job, the Albuquerque’s Journal’s Ellen Marks, assistant business editor, decided to ask around about New Mexico’s situation with regard to growing employment and diversifying the economy. The answers from a couple of the state’s leading economists were, respectively: Not much and none. The economists were Jeff Mitchell, director of the University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business and Economist Research, and Jim Peach of New Mexico State University.
The story ran September 11.
Probably inadvertently, Marks provided Gov. Susana Martinez a place to demonstrate ignoring the issue. As was professionally appropriate, Marks asked to interview the governor. (Marks said “the Journal” asked for the interview; I presume it was Marks.) The response, quoting from the story, the Journal got, from “spokesman Michael Lonergan, ‘Unfortunately we don’t have the availability for an interview in the Governor’s calendar at this time.”
That’s absurd. If Gov. Martinez wanted to talk, there would be time to talk. Martinez kicked the bucket to economic development secretary Matt Geilsel (who I’m told is a good guy) who was stuck with saying, “the one percent growth in jobs over the past year is evidence that the state is headed in the right direction with “incremental, positive progress.”
Martinez is not appearing at the 2017 Domenici Institute conference in Las Cruces where she has been a fixture at the previous gatherings I have attended. The conference is this week, September 13 and 14.
Another gem appeared from a Martinez statement last month, “Through relentless commitment to reforms—balancing budgets, cutting taxes and streamlining regulations—we’re growing and diversifying our economy and competing for jobs and investment with neighboring states like never before —and even beating them.”
Governors like to say that balancing the state budget is a big deal, an accomplishment. Not so. In most states as in New Mexico, balancing the budget is a constitutional requirement. So a governor bragging on this is bragging on doing the job. Wow. AS to the Martinez tax cuts, I looked at them in a February column (see nmopinions.com) and found them to be much ado about very little.
A theme to the article is the ultra conventional received wisdom that recruiting companies to the state is the answer. Yes, recruiting is part of the answer. But the rest is looking at the entire state for the oft mentioned systemic issues such as the underground economy, one-person firms and financial institution capability.
Final note: Ben Cloutier said, attributing the comment to Gov. Martinez, that the movie biz had put more than $500 million into the NM economy. Over one year, or multiple years, the story didn’t say. But while $500 million is a lot of money, the state’s GDP was $93 million in 2016. So it wasn’t that big a deal. The statement also said the movie was “supporting 90,000 jobs in 2015.” That doesn’t says the movie biz employs 90,000 people. “Supporting” looks like one of those words carefully chosen to imply more than it says. If true, movies would provide more than 10% of the wage jobs in the state. I don’t believe it.
The story ran September 11.
Probably inadvertently, Marks provided Gov. Susana Martinez a place to demonstrate ignoring the issue. As was professionally appropriate, Marks asked to interview the governor. (Marks said “the Journal” asked for the interview; I presume it was Marks.) The response, quoting from the story, the Journal got, from “spokesman Michael Lonergan, ‘Unfortunately we don’t have the availability for an interview in the Governor’s calendar at this time.”
That’s absurd. If Gov. Martinez wanted to talk, there would be time to talk. Martinez kicked the bucket to economic development secretary Matt Geilsel (who I’m told is a good guy) who was stuck with saying, “the one percent growth in jobs over the past year is evidence that the state is headed in the right direction with “incremental, positive progress.”
Martinez is not appearing at the 2017 Domenici Institute conference in Las Cruces where she has been a fixture at the previous gatherings I have attended. The conference is this week, September 13 and 14.
Another gem appeared from a Martinez statement last month, “Through relentless commitment to reforms—balancing budgets, cutting taxes and streamlining regulations—we’re growing and diversifying our economy and competing for jobs and investment with neighboring states like never before —and even beating them.”
Governors like to say that balancing the state budget is a big deal, an accomplishment. Not so. In most states as in New Mexico, balancing the budget is a constitutional requirement. So a governor bragging on this is bragging on doing the job. Wow. AS to the Martinez tax cuts, I looked at them in a February column (see nmopinions.com) and found them to be much ado about very little.
A theme to the article is the ultra conventional received wisdom that recruiting companies to the state is the answer. Yes, recruiting is part of the answer. But the rest is looking at the entire state for the oft mentioned systemic issues such as the underground economy, one-person firms and financial institution capability.
Final note: Ben Cloutier said, attributing the comment to Gov. Martinez, that the movie biz had put more than $500 million into the NM economy. Over one year, or multiple years, the story didn’t say. But while $500 million is a lot of money, the state’s GDP was $93 million in 2016. So it wasn’t that big a deal. The statement also said the movie was “supporting 90,000 jobs in 2015.” That doesn’t says the movie biz employs 90,000 people. “Supporting” looks like one of those words carefully chosen to imply more than it says. If true, movies would provide more than 10% of the wage jobs in the state. I don’t believe it.
Metro Home Sales Down 11% from June
Sales peaked in June for single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque. For August the 1,092 closed sales were 136 units, or 11%, down from June. Sales of attached homes (townhouses and condominiums) also peaked in June (at 112) and dropped 21% to 96 for August. The figures are in the August sales report released today by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
August closed sales were up eight units, or 0.8%, from July and nine units from August 2016.
Pending sales behaved a little differently during August, climbing back to tie April at 1,080 for the 2017 high. Even so, pending sales have been flat since March at 1,150 units, plus or minus. The increase from the 1,133 pending sales in July was 47, or four percent, and 17.2% from 1,007 in August 2016. It was 2007 when pending sales were last over 1,000 for several months.
The homes that closed during August were on the market an average of 44 days, down from 50 days in August 2016. The average sales period has been below 50 days since May.
Attached homes are selling even faster, on the market for 40 days during August, 39 days in July and 38 during June.
Both the median and average price increased, year over year, during August for metro detached homes.
The median price, $202,825 during August, was up 6.7%, or $12,825, from August 2016 and increased $3,325, or 1.7%, from July.
However, the average price dropped $382 from July to $237,532 and is down $4,869, or two percent, from the 2017 peak of $242,401 in June. The August average was up five percent from $226,322 for August 2016.
August closed sales were up eight units, or 0.8%, from July and nine units from August 2016.
Pending sales behaved a little differently during August, climbing back to tie April at 1,080 for the 2017 high. Even so, pending sales have been flat since March at 1,150 units, plus or minus. The increase from the 1,133 pending sales in July was 47, or four percent, and 17.2% from 1,007 in August 2016. It was 2007 when pending sales were last over 1,000 for several months.
The homes that closed during August were on the market an average of 44 days, down from 50 days in August 2016. The average sales period has been below 50 days since May.
Attached homes are selling even faster, on the market for 40 days during August, 39 days in July and 38 during June.
Both the median and average price increased, year over year, during August for metro detached homes.
The median price, $202,825 during August, was up 6.7%, or $12,825, from August 2016 and increased $3,325, or 1.7%, from July.
However, the average price dropped $382 from July to $237,532 and is down $4,869, or two percent, from the 2017 peak of $242,401 in June. The August average was up five percent from $226,322 for August 2016.
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