As of April 1, 2010, the Census Bureau says New Mexico's "resident population" was 2,059,179. The figures were released at 11 a.m. today, Eastern Time, about 90 minutes ago. Ten years ago, our population as 1,855,059. That's an additional 204,120 people in the decade, a 13.2% increase.
Another 8,094 people are considered to be the state's overseas population. The two figures combined to produce the "apportionment population" of 2,067,273.
New Mexico's population was 1,515, 000 in 1990, a 16% hike from 1980. Through 2000, New Mexico;s population added 340, 059 people, a 22% increase, double the growth rate through 2010.
The original estimate for New Mexico's 2009 population was 2,009,671. That estimate was derived from the 2000 census figure and looks to have been on the low side. There's no way the state added nearly 50,000 people in less than a year during a recession. The original 2009 estimate was released in December 2009.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Income Grows, Lab Wages Frozen, Chu Takes Cheap Shot at G.W. Bush.
Personal income in New Mexico showed a one percent increase (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter of 2010 from the second quarter of 2010. That’s down from 1.9% growth in the second quarter. The third quarter performance was good for 11th place nationally.
Net earnings contributed 60% of the one percent increase with 40% from transfer payments such as unemployment and welfare.
At 0.14%, the farm sector showed the largest increase for the third quarter. Mining and construction earnings both grew 0.07%.
Earnings of federal civilian employees dropped 0.12% during the quarter.
Further earnings growth in the state will be hit by the wage freeze for national laboratory employees announced yesterday. The move affects about 17,000 New Mexicans, roughly split between Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos National Laboratory. National laboratory employees often earn more than $100,000.
A previously announced freeze hit 32,000 federal government employees in the state. The two freezes, affect 6.1% of the state’s wage earners.
The announcement of the freeze including a gratuitous cheap shot at former President George W. Bush and demonstrated the Obama administration’s continued unwillingness to accept responsibility for its financial policies after nearly two years in office.
As reported in the Albuquerque Journal, the release from DOE Secretary Steven Chu said, “As our nation continues to recover from these challenging economic times and we work to address the massive deficits we inherited….”
Dr. Chu conveniently overlooks the fact that the Obama administration’s deficit spending makes George W. Bush look like an amateur.
Net earnings contributed 60% of the one percent increase with 40% from transfer payments such as unemployment and welfare.
At 0.14%, the farm sector showed the largest increase for the third quarter. Mining and construction earnings both grew 0.07%.
Earnings of federal civilian employees dropped 0.12% during the quarter.
Further earnings growth in the state will be hit by the wage freeze for national laboratory employees announced yesterday. The move affects about 17,000 New Mexicans, roughly split between Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos National Laboratory. National laboratory employees often earn more than $100,000.
A previously announced freeze hit 32,000 federal government employees in the state. The two freezes, affect 6.1% of the state’s wage earners.
The announcement of the freeze including a gratuitous cheap shot at former President George W. Bush and demonstrated the Obama administration’s continued unwillingness to accept responsibility for its financial policies after nearly two years in office.
As reported in the Albuquerque Journal, the release from DOE Secretary Steven Chu said, “As our nation continues to recover from these challenging economic times and we work to address the massive deficits we inherited….”
Dr. Chu conveniently overlooks the fact that the Obama administration’s deficit spending makes George W. Bush look like an amateur.
NM Employment Drop Leads Nation
From October to November, the largest percentage decrease in employment occurred in New Mexico with a 0.5% drop. New Mexico showed a seasonally adjusted drop of 4,100 wage jobs during the month, from 807,700 to 803,600.
The figures were released yesterday as part of the monthly Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For the month, New Mexico’s unemployment rate added a statistically insignificant tenth of a point, growing to 8.5% from 8.4% in October.
Over the November-to-November year, the state lost 4,300 wage jobs.
Government lost 2,600 jobs during November. Construction gained 500 jobs during November after adding 1,500 jobs in October. At 45,400, the construction employment remains below the November 2009 employment of 45,700.
The figures were released yesterday as part of the monthly Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For the month, New Mexico’s unemployment rate added a statistically insignificant tenth of a point, growing to 8.5% from 8.4% in October.
Over the November-to-November year, the state lost 4,300 wage jobs.
Government lost 2,600 jobs during November. Construction gained 500 jobs during November after adding 1,500 jobs in October. At 45,400, the construction employment remains below the November 2009 employment of 45,700.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Single Family Homes Sales Up in November.
Maybe it was the warm weather during October drawing people out and about to look at new houses and make deals that closed in November. The metro economy, still well mired in recession, certainly isn’t what kept the October pending sales figure at 655, just two fewer than the 657 sales pending during September.
But the role of pending sales as an indicator of closed sales the following month stayed true for November, normally not a month when the number of homes sold increases from the previous month.
November 2010 broke the rule with the sale of 469 single family homes closed during the month, a 2.8% increase from October. The sale of 589 homes was pending during November, down 10% from October, suggesting a drop in sales for December. January and February usually are the two slowest sales months of the year.
Prices for single family homes in Albuquerque continued to increase on a year-over-year basis during November. The median price was $177,500 during November. The average price was $220,453. The median price improved for the third consecutive month with the average price up for the fifth month on a year-over-year comparison.
For townhomes and condominiums, the median price for October, $155,000, showed an 11% increase from November 2009 and tied May for the highest median price of the year. The average townhouse price was $152,363 during November, and 5,110 homes were offered for sale in metro Albuquerque.
But the role of pending sales as an indicator of closed sales the following month stayed true for November, normally not a month when the number of homes sold increases from the previous month.
November 2010 broke the rule with the sale of 469 single family homes closed during the month, a 2.8% increase from October. The sale of 589 homes was pending during November, down 10% from October, suggesting a drop in sales for December. January and February usually are the two slowest sales months of the year.
Prices for single family homes in Albuquerque continued to increase on a year-over-year basis during November. The median price was $177,500 during November. The average price was $220,453. The median price improved for the third consecutive month with the average price up for the fifth month on a year-over-year comparison.
For townhomes and condominiums, the median price for October, $155,000, showed an 11% increase from November 2009 and tied May for the highest median price of the year. The average townhouse price was $152,363 during November, and 5,110 homes were offered for sale in metro Albuquerque.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Management: Richardson Administration Style
A conversation today with a Richardson administration cabinet secretary turned to management matters. This secretary makes "happy birthday" calls to staff, any staff, not just management. The call recipients typically are amazed and appreciative.
The situation brings to mind a meeting about workforce issues held in 2005 (I think) at St. John's College. Three cabinet secretaries were part of the meeting. Richardson addressed the group at lunch and belittled the cabinet secretaries, saying they were the least competent people in the room. For one of the three, I suspect Richardson was correct. But I found denigrating them in public to be astonishing and providing of an ugly clue to the character of the now out-going governor.
The situation brings to mind a meeting about workforce issues held in 2005 (I think) at St. John's College. Three cabinet secretaries were part of the meeting. Richardson addressed the group at lunch and belittled the cabinet secretaries, saying they were the least competent people in the room. For one of the three, I suspect Richardson was correct. But I found denigrating them in public to be astonishing and providing of an ugly clue to the character of the now out-going governor.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Richardson Tax Delusion Continues
The delusion is not Bill Richardson cut taxes while governor of New Mexico. The delusion is failing to recognize that he and his helpers raised bunches and bunches of other taxes. Today's Albuquerque Journal headline is, "UNM Fees Up 110 Percent Since '03." Student fees aren't tuition, the article reminds us. Fees go to athletics (ah, smell that football success..), the student union, groups and what the article called "other nonacademic expenses." Fees go to a government institution. By my perhaps expansive definition, taxes are any money going to the government.
Oh, and tuition has "only" increased 74% the past seven years.
Oh, and tuition has "only" increased 74% the past seven years.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
LFC Revenue Hearing Quiet, Brief. Deficit is $200 Million or $400 Million
A crowd appeared for this morning’s Legislative Finance Committee General Fund Revenue Projection hearing. All 16 LFC members were there. Eight other legislators had a chair at the front of Room 307 in the Capitol in Santa Fe. The temptation is to say that House Speaker Ben Lujan hovered in the corner. Lujan was in a corner, but not hovering, rather he sat, almost hidden. The corner was dark.
Room 307 wasn’t full, as in wall-to-wall full. The audience, scattered across the room, included lobbyists, state staff, and business types such as Albuquerque Chamber exec Terri Cole.
Some key elements of LFC revenue projection meetings the past few years were missing today. The administration’s presentation lacked the gratuitous claims that Gov. Bill Richardson had built a grandly better economy for New Mexico. There was no defense of the movie subsidies. While revenue shortage estimates from the executive and the LFC remain far apart, the differences come from making reasoned assumptions one way or the other, so there was no need for the presenters to suggest one or the other was smoking something in creating revenue assumptions.
After the presentation, two things did not happen: many questions from LFC members, many of them harsh, and lectures from LFC members to the effect that administration projections were fantasy. For example, after past presentations, Sen. John Arthur Smith (D-Deming) has commonly wondered about the logic behind administration projection. Rep. Don Bratton (R-Hobbs) has repeatedly observed that oil and gas price assumptions had no basis.
The only post-presentation question came from Sen. Sue Wilson Beffort and was about the effect on the state of the federal government raising income tax rates by not extending the Bush tax cut. Wilson’s point was that a huge proportion of the state’s business are very small, either proprietorships or subchapter S corporations and the owners pay taxes as individuals. LFC staff lacked an answer and will do an analysis, but suspected the effect would be nasty.
With just the one question and no lectures, the presentation ended 45 minutes short of the scheduled two hours. Surprise.
The harmony was unexplained. Maybe—speculating here—it had something to do with being in transition to a new administration, which hasn’t yet revealed plans. Brian Moore, incoming deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Gov.-Elect Susana Martinez, did stop by and shake a few hands as the hearing began. Moore was an LFC member during his time in the legislature.
The only laugh-line of the day came with the report that bringing New Mexico’s unemployment down to 4.5% (assuming no labor force growth) would require employing 37,343 people, “the approximate number that would normally attend a football game at the University of New Mexico’s Lobo Stadium.” The chuckles (and more) at this analogy elicited an explanation. “Well, maybe not this year.” (UNM’s stadium has a capacity of 39,224, had held 44,000 and properly is called, “University Stadium.”)
Forecast revenue remains well short of “maintaining current services,” as the wonks like to say. The shortage is around $200 million (LFC), or maybe $400 million (administration), depending on assumptions.
The only annoying item in the executive branch presentation was a comment attributed to UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research. The comment, standard BBER doublespeak as I see it, was “that New Mexico’s economy continued to improve during the third quarter of 2010.”
The truth is that our state’s economy deteriorated at a slower rate during the third quarter. However, that is not improvement and any description of slower deterioration as “improvement” is misleading at best.
Room 307 wasn’t full, as in wall-to-wall full. The audience, scattered across the room, included lobbyists, state staff, and business types such as Albuquerque Chamber exec Terri Cole.
Some key elements of LFC revenue projection meetings the past few years were missing today. The administration’s presentation lacked the gratuitous claims that Gov. Bill Richardson had built a grandly better economy for New Mexico. There was no defense of the movie subsidies. While revenue shortage estimates from the executive and the LFC remain far apart, the differences come from making reasoned assumptions one way or the other, so there was no need for the presenters to suggest one or the other was smoking something in creating revenue assumptions.
After the presentation, two things did not happen: many questions from LFC members, many of them harsh, and lectures from LFC members to the effect that administration projections were fantasy. For example, after past presentations, Sen. John Arthur Smith (D-Deming) has commonly wondered about the logic behind administration projection. Rep. Don Bratton (R-Hobbs) has repeatedly observed that oil and gas price assumptions had no basis.
The only post-presentation question came from Sen. Sue Wilson Beffort and was about the effect on the state of the federal government raising income tax rates by not extending the Bush tax cut. Wilson’s point was that a huge proportion of the state’s business are very small, either proprietorships or subchapter S corporations and the owners pay taxes as individuals. LFC staff lacked an answer and will do an analysis, but suspected the effect would be nasty.
With just the one question and no lectures, the presentation ended 45 minutes short of the scheduled two hours. Surprise.
The harmony was unexplained. Maybe—speculating here—it had something to do with being in transition to a new administration, which hasn’t yet revealed plans. Brian Moore, incoming deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Gov.-Elect Susana Martinez, did stop by and shake a few hands as the hearing began. Moore was an LFC member during his time in the legislature.
The only laugh-line of the day came with the report that bringing New Mexico’s unemployment down to 4.5% (assuming no labor force growth) would require employing 37,343 people, “the approximate number that would normally attend a football game at the University of New Mexico’s Lobo Stadium.” The chuckles (and more) at this analogy elicited an explanation. “Well, maybe not this year.” (UNM’s stadium has a capacity of 39,224, had held 44,000 and properly is called, “University Stadium.”)
Forecast revenue remains well short of “maintaining current services,” as the wonks like to say. The shortage is around $200 million (LFC), or maybe $400 million (administration), depending on assumptions.
The only annoying item in the executive branch presentation was a comment attributed to UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research. The comment, standard BBER doublespeak as I see it, was “that New Mexico’s economy continued to improve during the third quarter of 2010.”
The truth is that our state’s economy deteriorated at a slower rate during the third quarter. However, that is not improvement and any description of slower deterioration as “improvement” is misleading at best.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Doyne Farmer and Knowing the New Mexico Economy
Physicist Doyne Farmer of Santa Fe and the Santa Fe Institute made the first paragraph of a Wall Street Journal Page one story yesterday. He also had the final paragraph of the 54.5 inch story all to himself as well as 11 inches in the middle.
Who is this guy and what the hell is he doing on page one of the Wall Street Journal?
To start, Farmer is local, a New Mexican. He grew up in Silver City with fellow physicist Norman Packard who actually was born in Silver City, according to Wikipedia. I first learned about Farmer from another big time media outlet, Smithsonian magazine. The article, adapted from a chapter in the 1987 book, Chaos, detailed the undergraduate exploits of Farmer and Packard at the University of California at Santa Cruz. Roulette was one focus and behind the game was a set of ideas that became important to the development of non-linear dynamics or chaos theory.
Now Farmer is a professor at the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe. The Institute spun out of Los Alamos National Laboratory in an intellectual sort of manner and is the center of a world-wide network of people working on non-linear dynamics.
Maybe Farmer is locally unknown because he never has joined the Santa Fe Chamber of Commerce or the Association of Commerce and Industry. Maybe his work is difficult. Certainly it wouldn’t be due to cluelessness on the part of local media. No. Never.
Farmer has even created jobs and wealth. Sale of Prediction Company to the Swiss Bank UBS, where Farmer was a founding partner, brought him what the Wall Street Journal article called “a small fortune.” Prediction Company (www.predict.com) is still in Santa Fe.
The point of the Farmer history here is that he is part of the intellectual infrastructure around our national laboratories. We do not know the size of this infrastructure, but put it together with the labs and it add to a huge and well-paid piece of the New Mexico economy. To disparage the national laboratories simply because the government provides the money is wrong.
The Wall Street Journal cares about Farmer because he and his “agent based model” are smack in the middle of the search for new economic models in reaction to the global economic mess. And it’s happening in New Mexico. But we don’t know that.
Who is this guy and what the hell is he doing on page one of the Wall Street Journal?
To start, Farmer is local, a New Mexican. He grew up in Silver City with fellow physicist Norman Packard who actually was born in Silver City, according to Wikipedia. I first learned about Farmer from another big time media outlet, Smithsonian magazine. The article, adapted from a chapter in the 1987 book, Chaos, detailed the undergraduate exploits of Farmer and Packard at the University of California at Santa Cruz. Roulette was one focus and behind the game was a set of ideas that became important to the development of non-linear dynamics or chaos theory.
Now Farmer is a professor at the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe. The Institute spun out of Los Alamos National Laboratory in an intellectual sort of manner and is the center of a world-wide network of people working on non-linear dynamics.
Maybe Farmer is locally unknown because he never has joined the Santa Fe Chamber of Commerce or the Association of Commerce and Industry. Maybe his work is difficult. Certainly it wouldn’t be due to cluelessness on the part of local media. No. Never.
Farmer has even created jobs and wealth. Sale of Prediction Company to the Swiss Bank UBS, where Farmer was a founding partner, brought him what the Wall Street Journal article called “a small fortune.” Prediction Company (www.predict.com) is still in Santa Fe.
The point of the Farmer history here is that he is part of the intellectual infrastructure around our national laboratories. We do not know the size of this infrastructure, but put it together with the labs and it add to a huge and well-paid piece of the New Mexico economy. To disparage the national laboratories simply because the government provides the money is wrong.
The Wall Street Journal cares about Farmer because he and his “agent based model” are smack in the middle of the search for new economic models in reaction to the global economic mess. And it’s happening in New Mexico. But we don’t know that.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Efficiency Group and the Deck Chairs
Gov.-Elect Susana Martinez has put the Garrey Carruthers efficiency group back in business. Excellent.
In its previous life as the Committee on Government Efficiency, starting in December 2009 and ending with a report dated January 14, 2010, the group surveyed the low hanging fruit and found savings to recommend of $129 million.
The biggest item was $35 million from increasing state coverage insurance premiums. The group also tended to little stuff, finding about $700,000 in savings from eliminating and/or consolidating more than 35 boards, commissions and task forces.
Another ten items were recommended for further analysis including reducing the number of school districts and the number of institutions of higher education.
However, the group didn’t really look at eliminating activities of state government, except outdated boards and commissions.
Efficiency has to go beyond rearranging the deck chairs.
Here are a few thoughts:
First, recommend some actions that might be considered outlandish. How about eliminating Harding County? The latest housing estimates show the county with more housing units than people, clearly a statistical quirk of some sort but yet another indication that paying special attention to Harding County as a county is a waste.
Or eliminate the local government division of the Department of Finance and Administration. Any functions thought useful such as the capital budgeting advisory work can be parked elsewhere.
Opportunities exist in higher education.
Just looking at degree titles, I find New Mexico State University offers two doctoral degrees in educational administration. One is a doctor of education. One is a doctor of philosophy. The college of education at the University of New Mexico offers 11 (wow!) doctoral degrees in education. There is one in just “education” and with one each covering educational leadership, linguistics and psychology.
Consolidation and program reduction opportunities await.
Western New Mexico University offers ten graduate degrees. The listing for education masters degrees is confusing, but there appear to be 11. There are two ways to get a masters degree in social work, two MBA options and three ways to get a masters in “interdisciplinary studies,” whatever that is.
Highlands University has masters degrees in 16 fields including computing, business, human performance and sport, public affairs (absurdly promising “a comprehensive understanding of the social and cultural environment in the public and private sphere”) and social work. The latter, by the way, is well regarded. By contrast, I simply don’t understand how, with five campuses outside its Las Vegas home, Highlands can offer computing and business graduate degrees that are other than a complete waste. And of course, those five non-Vegas campuses should be eliminated.
In its previous life as the Committee on Government Efficiency, starting in December 2009 and ending with a report dated January 14, 2010, the group surveyed the low hanging fruit and found savings to recommend of $129 million.
The biggest item was $35 million from increasing state coverage insurance premiums. The group also tended to little stuff, finding about $700,000 in savings from eliminating and/or consolidating more than 35 boards, commissions and task forces.
Another ten items were recommended for further analysis including reducing the number of school districts and the number of institutions of higher education.
However, the group didn’t really look at eliminating activities of state government, except outdated boards and commissions.
Efficiency has to go beyond rearranging the deck chairs.
Here are a few thoughts:
First, recommend some actions that might be considered outlandish. How about eliminating Harding County? The latest housing estimates show the county with more housing units than people, clearly a statistical quirk of some sort but yet another indication that paying special attention to Harding County as a county is a waste.
Or eliminate the local government division of the Department of Finance and Administration. Any functions thought useful such as the capital budgeting advisory work can be parked elsewhere.
Opportunities exist in higher education.
Just looking at degree titles, I find New Mexico State University offers two doctoral degrees in educational administration. One is a doctor of education. One is a doctor of philosophy. The college of education at the University of New Mexico offers 11 (wow!) doctoral degrees in education. There is one in just “education” and with one each covering educational leadership, linguistics and psychology.
Consolidation and program reduction opportunities await.
Western New Mexico University offers ten graduate degrees. The listing for education masters degrees is confusing, but there appear to be 11. There are two ways to get a masters degree in social work, two MBA options and three ways to get a masters in “interdisciplinary studies,” whatever that is.
Highlands University has masters degrees in 16 fields including computing, business, human performance and sport, public affairs (absurdly promising “a comprehensive understanding of the social and cultural environment in the public and private sphere”) and social work. The latter, by the way, is well regarded. By contrast, I simply don’t understand how, with five campuses outside its Las Vegas home, Highlands can offer computing and business graduate degrees that are other than a complete waste. And of course, those five non-Vegas campuses should be eliminated.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Abq Loses 6,100 jobs. Rest of NM Gains 10,700 jobs.
The Department of Workforce Services says New Mexico added 4,900 wage jobs (seasonally not-adjusted) during October and 4,600 jobs, or 0.57% (that’s just over one-half of one percent, in case the decimal makes your eyes blur), again not seasonally adjusted, from October 2009 to October 2010. Metro Albuquerque lost 6,100 wage jobs over the year. That means the rest of the state gained 10,700 jobs.
The Bureau of Labors Statistics numbers reported yesterday were seasonally adjusted. DWS released the figures this morning. This is the first year-over-year job growth in 23 months, DWS says. Happy Thanksgiving.
Statewide, the year-over-year losers were: Construction (-1,000); wholesale trade (-900); retail trade (-2,900); transportation (-600); information (-600); professional and business services (-2,000).
The retail job loss suggests consumers are still hiding their wallets, bad news for state gross receipts tax collections and for the deficit-ridden state budget.
The big gainer, as reported yesterday, is state government with 2,900 net new jobs over the year. That’s amazing. Note that not all “state government jobs” are with the state government of New Mexico. That these numbers are seasonally adjusted says that mostly likely real growth has occurred. The other explanation is statistical trouble. The growth is in rural New Mexico. Only 500 of those 2,900 state jobs are in the metro areas.
The Albuquerque job loss was 1.6%. Albuquerque lost 3,700 jobs, year over year, in professional and business services. This sector hosts all sorts of technology companies such as engineering services firms, computer systems design and environmental consultants. However, about 20% of the sector’s employment consists of accountants and lawyers. Construction lost 2,600 jobs, year-over-year, in Albuquerque, which means that the rest of the state gained 1,600 construction jobs. Construction has the fewest jobs in Albuquerque since February 2000.
The beginning of the state’s recovery, such as it is, is driven by Las Cruces (up 2,000 jobs, year-over-year, a very nice 2.9% increase) and the rural areas. Santa Fe lost 100 jobs over the year while Farmington lost 400. Professional and business services leads the Las Cruces recovery with a 1,200 job, one-year increase.
The Bureau of Labors Statistics numbers reported yesterday were seasonally adjusted. DWS released the figures this morning. This is the first year-over-year job growth in 23 months, DWS says. Happy Thanksgiving.
Statewide, the year-over-year losers were: Construction (-1,000); wholesale trade (-900); retail trade (-2,900); transportation (-600); information (-600); professional and business services (-2,000).
The retail job loss suggests consumers are still hiding their wallets, bad news for state gross receipts tax collections and for the deficit-ridden state budget.
The big gainer, as reported yesterday, is state government with 2,900 net new jobs over the year. That’s amazing. Note that not all “state government jobs” are with the state government of New Mexico. That these numbers are seasonally adjusted says that mostly likely real growth has occurred. The other explanation is statistical trouble. The growth is in rural New Mexico. Only 500 of those 2,900 state jobs are in the metro areas.
The Albuquerque job loss was 1.6%. Albuquerque lost 3,700 jobs, year over year, in professional and business services. This sector hosts all sorts of technology companies such as engineering services firms, computer systems design and environmental consultants. However, about 20% of the sector’s employment consists of accountants and lawyers. Construction lost 2,600 jobs, year-over-year, in Albuquerque, which means that the rest of the state gained 1,600 construction jobs. Construction has the fewest jobs in Albuquerque since February 2000.
The beginning of the state’s recovery, such as it is, is driven by Las Cruces (up 2,000 jobs, year-over-year, a very nice 2.9% increase) and the rural areas. Santa Fe lost 100 jobs over the year while Farmington lost 400. Professional and business services leads the Las Cruces recovery with a 1,200 job, one-year increase.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
NM Employment Grows! State Still in Trouble.
New Mexico added 6,300 wage jobs (seasonally adjusted) during October. With the 0.8% increase (to 810,800), New Mexico was second nationally in percentage job growth from September to October. The numbers were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. The state also added jobs on a year-over-year basis, with a 4,600 job increase from October 2009.
The state’s labor force was 957,000 during October (seasonally adjusted), the same as during October 2009.
With 80,800 New Mexicans unemployed during October, the unemployment rate was 8.4%, up from 8.2% in September.
On a year-over-year basis, selected sector during October performance is below:
Construction: 44,400. -1,000.
Manufacturing: 30,400. +1,200. (A crucial, basic economy sector)
Trade, transportation and utilities: 129,000. -4,500.
Professional and business services: 98,500. -1,900.
Education and health services: 124,600. +5,300.
Leisure and hospitality: 86,300. +700. (The proxy for tourism)
Government: 203,100. +3,700. (Gasp! Incredible!)
Reality check: The overall job growth is great news. But, together, government and a semi-government sector, education and health services, added 9,000 jobs. That means the private sector, the real world wealth creating part of the economy, lost a net of another 2,700 jobs. And that means that while the New Mexico economy may be edging toward the door of the intensive care ward, we’re still in big trouble.
The state’s labor force was 957,000 during October (seasonally adjusted), the same as during October 2009.
With 80,800 New Mexicans unemployed during October, the unemployment rate was 8.4%, up from 8.2% in September.
On a year-over-year basis, selected sector during October performance is below:
Construction: 44,400. -1,000.
Manufacturing: 30,400. +1,200. (A crucial, basic economy sector)
Trade, transportation and utilities: 129,000. -4,500.
Professional and business services: 98,500. -1,900.
Education and health services: 124,600. +5,300.
Leisure and hospitality: 86,300. +700. (The proxy for tourism)
Government: 203,100. +3,700. (Gasp! Incredible!)
Reality check: The overall job growth is great news. But, together, government and a semi-government sector, education and health services, added 9,000 jobs. That means the private sector, the real world wealth creating part of the economy, lost a net of another 2,700 jobs. And that means that while the New Mexico economy may be edging toward the door of the intensive care ward, we’re still in big trouble.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
This coming Friday, November 26, won’t be a “black Friday” for all. That’s because the Bugg Lights display will start its third year at Menaul School. The lighting ceremony starts at 5 p.m. The lights will be on until 9 p.m. The lights will be on again at sundown the 27th, on Friday and Saturday the next two weekends and then every night from the 16th through the 24th.
There are about 200,000 of the lights, as I remember, in a variety of displays. The display was create by Norman and Joyce Bugg in their northeast Albuquerque front yard. After outgrowing the Bugg’s yard, the display migrated to the now-defunct outlet center between Albuquerque and Santa Fe and then to Menaul School.
For more information about the light display and the school, see www.menaulschool.com.
Menaul School is one of those Albuquerque institutions that is easy to overlook. Located at 301 Menaul Blvd NE since its founding in 1891, the school is small. The buildings are set back from the street, which was named after the school, and far from the flash and dash of the recycled UNM Pit Arena.
The Presbyterian Church ran Menaul until 1972. Now there is what school president Lindsey Gilbert calls “a covenant relationship” with the church. Not that Menaul shies from its origin. Indeed, Menaul embraces its faith base. “You should discuss issues of faith” in a non-dogmatic way. Gilbert was leading the campus tour after hosting a number of community members at the schools monthly outreach breakfast. There is daily chapel, but run by the students.
The faith-based mission is “vital to helping our kids have a sense of identity,” Gilbert says.
The student body is 75% non-Anglo with 60% receiving financial aid. Half the students are the first one in the family to attend college and 70% finish college.
All in all, worth a look.
(Bugg Light photo, courtesy Menaul School.)
There are about 200,000 of the lights, as I remember, in a variety of displays. The display was create by Norman and Joyce Bugg in their northeast Albuquerque front yard. After outgrowing the Bugg’s yard, the display migrated to the now-defunct outlet center between Albuquerque and Santa Fe and then to Menaul School.
For more information about the light display and the school, see www.menaulschool.com.
Menaul School is one of those Albuquerque institutions that is easy to overlook. Located at 301 Menaul Blvd NE since its founding in 1891, the school is small. The buildings are set back from the street, which was named after the school, and far from the flash and dash of the recycled UNM Pit Arena.
The Presbyterian Church ran Menaul until 1972. Now there is what school president Lindsey Gilbert calls “a covenant relationship” with the church. Not that Menaul shies from its origin. Indeed, Menaul embraces its faith base. “You should discuss issues of faith” in a non-dogmatic way. Gilbert was leading the campus tour after hosting a number of community members at the schools monthly outreach breakfast. There is daily chapel, but run by the students.
The faith-based mission is “vital to helping our kids have a sense of identity,” Gilbert says.
The student body is 75% non-Anglo with 60% receiving financial aid. Half the students are the first one in the family to attend college and 70% finish college.
All in all, worth a look.
(Bugg Light photo, courtesy Menaul School.)
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Albuquerque Real Estate: Sales Down, Prices Steady, Nonsense Published
The DukeCityFix.com website this morning picked up an item from Memphis and blithely republished a claim that “September price reductions” showed Albuquerque with a 35% decrease.
While it’s unclear exactly the timeframe referenced by the Memphis folks (year-over-year?), the claim is nonsense. I have asked DukeCityFix to publish a correction. Here’s the truth. In September, average ($217,677) and median ($183,000) single family detached home prices were up a bit over September 2009.
Overall the metro price pattern appears to be stable-to-increasing. The median single family detached home price was $180,000 for October. This marked the third month out of the past four with an increase on a year-over-year basis. The average price of a metro home was $225,666, a 7% increase from October 2009 and the second highest average price since August 2008. The highest average price for 2010 was $230,213 in July.
The pending sale of 655 single family detached homes was recorded during October, almost the same as the 657 pending sales during September. During October the sale closed on 456 homes, a 4.8% drop from September.
My quick look at the realtors' website (www.gaar.com) indicated that metro single family home prices peaked in June 2007 with an average of about $262,000 and a median of $215,000. By July 2010, the price peak for 2010 to date, the average price was down 12% and the median down 13%.
I don’t know what the Memphis folks have put in their barbeque sauce, but DukeCityFix does harm if they don’t publish an attention getting correction.
On a year-over-year basis, closed sales continue well below 2009 when sales reflected the first-time buyer tax credit that ended in April. That pending sales during October were essentially the same as September suggests that perhaps November sales may be in the vicinity of the October figure of 456 closed sales. That’s because pending sales are a leading indicator for closed sales in the following month.
On the other hand, as economists like to say, it’s cold. In Albuquerque the winter months, January and February in particular, are the slowest for home sales. So we’ll see.
While it’s unclear exactly the timeframe referenced by the Memphis folks (year-over-year?), the claim is nonsense. I have asked DukeCityFix to publish a correction. Here’s the truth. In September, average ($217,677) and median ($183,000) single family detached home prices were up a bit over September 2009.
Overall the metro price pattern appears to be stable-to-increasing. The median single family detached home price was $180,000 for October. This marked the third month out of the past four with an increase on a year-over-year basis. The average price of a metro home was $225,666, a 7% increase from October 2009 and the second highest average price since August 2008. The highest average price for 2010 was $230,213 in July.
The pending sale of 655 single family detached homes was recorded during October, almost the same as the 657 pending sales during September. During October the sale closed on 456 homes, a 4.8% drop from September.
My quick look at the realtors' website (www.gaar.com) indicated that metro single family home prices peaked in June 2007 with an average of about $262,000 and a median of $215,000. By July 2010, the price peak for 2010 to date, the average price was down 12% and the median down 13%.
I don’t know what the Memphis folks have put in their barbeque sauce, but DukeCityFix does harm if they don’t publish an attention getting correction.
On a year-over-year basis, closed sales continue well below 2009 when sales reflected the first-time buyer tax credit that ended in April. That pending sales during October were essentially the same as September suggests that perhaps November sales may be in the vicinity of the October figure of 456 closed sales. That’s because pending sales are a leading indicator for closed sales in the following month.
On the other hand, as economists like to say, it’s cold. In Albuquerque the winter months, January and February in particular, are the slowest for home sales. So we’ll see.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Wells Fargo Doubles Market Share Lead
Wells Fargo Bank almost doubled its New Mexico market share lead over Bank of America between June 20, 2009, and June 30, 2010, according to figures from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
Wells has 24.16% of New Mexico’s bank deposits as of mid-2010, a three-point, one-year share increase. Wells added nearly a billion dollars ($972.9 million) to its New Mexico deposits, a 19% increase that brought total New Mexico deposits to $6.2 billion on June 30, 2010. Wells Fargo had 98 New Mexico offices in mid-2010, down one from June 30, 2009.
By major contrast, Bank of America, Wells’ main New Mexico competitor, dropped $434.6 million from its June 20, 2009, deposit total of $4 billion, an 11% decline that took 1.9 points of its 2009 market share. BofA’s New Mexico market share was 14.16% on June 30, 2010.
While the Wells-BofA gap widened significantly during the 2009-2010 year, the gap hasn’t always existed. In 1991, before the mad shuffle of bank ownership in the state began, Sunwest Financial Services, the market leader, had assets of $3.4 billion, about double the assets of United New Mexico. Sunwest morphed into Bank of America while the morphing took United New Mexico into Wells Fargo.
New Mexico had five banks with deposits of more than $1 billion in mid-2010. Bank of the West followed at $952 million.
The top six had 56% of the deposits. So far as I know, only one of the top six, Los Alamos National Bank is truly locally owned.
The next 14 banks had deposits between $217 million and $674 million.
Deposits grew $946 million, or 3.8%, in New Mexico between 2009 and 2010. The deposit total was $25.8 billion on June 30, 2010.
Wells Fargo’s one-year deposit increase, $972.9 million, was more than the statewide increase, meaning that, on net, all the state’s other banks lost deposits during the 2009-2010 year.
Wells has 24.16% of New Mexico’s bank deposits as of mid-2010, a three-point, one-year share increase. Wells added nearly a billion dollars ($972.9 million) to its New Mexico deposits, a 19% increase that brought total New Mexico deposits to $6.2 billion on June 30, 2010. Wells Fargo had 98 New Mexico offices in mid-2010, down one from June 30, 2009.
By major contrast, Bank of America, Wells’ main New Mexico competitor, dropped $434.6 million from its June 20, 2009, deposit total of $4 billion, an 11% decline that took 1.9 points of its 2009 market share. BofA’s New Mexico market share was 14.16% on June 30, 2010.
While the Wells-BofA gap widened significantly during the 2009-2010 year, the gap hasn’t always existed. In 1991, before the mad shuffle of bank ownership in the state began, Sunwest Financial Services, the market leader, had assets of $3.4 billion, about double the assets of United New Mexico. Sunwest morphed into Bank of America while the morphing took United New Mexico into Wells Fargo.
New Mexico had five banks with deposits of more than $1 billion in mid-2010. Bank of the West followed at $952 million.
The top six had 56% of the deposits. So far as I know, only one of the top six, Los Alamos National Bank is truly locally owned.
The next 14 banks had deposits between $217 million and $674 million.
Deposits grew $946 million, or 3.8%, in New Mexico between 2009 and 2010. The deposit total was $25.8 billion on June 30, 2010.
Wells Fargo’s one-year deposit increase, $972.9 million, was more than the statewide increase, meaning that, on net, all the state’s other banks lost deposits during the 2009-2010 year.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Office and Industrial Real Estate: Little Happening
Jobs are needed to justify building office and industrial buildings. The jobs aren’t there in metro Albuquerque.
What with a three supply of industrial space and a five year supply of office, no reason exists for new, speculative space. This was the outlook presented today to NAIOP, the New Mexico chapter of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association. The occasion was the annual office and industrial real estate update.
Money is the main reason for the expected paucity of new buildings. Lenders want up to 35% equity, backed by pre-leasing.
The industrial vacancy rate was 10.4% in the metro, driven by the GE engine plant closing. The fall 2009 vacancy forecast was 9.5%. As of now, no new industrial projects are in the pipeline for 2011. The forecast hopes 50,000 square feet of new industrial space will materialize.
Office space was 18.1% vacant in the third quarter of 2010, just above the national vacancy rate of 17%. For 2011, one project for 98,000 square feet is known. The little activity that does exist come from government.
For the national economy, Bab Bach, chief economist for Grubb and Ellis, sees 2.2% GDP growth in 2011. New wage jobs will average 125,000 per month in 2011, barely enough to absorb the new entrants to the labor force.
What with a three supply of industrial space and a five year supply of office, no reason exists for new, speculative space. This was the outlook presented today to NAIOP, the New Mexico chapter of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association. The occasion was the annual office and industrial real estate update.
Money is the main reason for the expected paucity of new buildings. Lenders want up to 35% equity, backed by pre-leasing.
The industrial vacancy rate was 10.4% in the metro, driven by the GE engine plant closing. The fall 2009 vacancy forecast was 9.5%. As of now, no new industrial projects are in the pipeline for 2011. The forecast hopes 50,000 square feet of new industrial space will materialize.
Office space was 18.1% vacant in the third quarter of 2010, just above the national vacancy rate of 17%. For 2011, one project for 98,000 square feet is known. The little activity that does exist come from government.
For the national economy, Bab Bach, chief economist for Grubb and Ellis, sees 2.2% GDP growth in 2011. New wage jobs will average 125,000 per month in 2011, barely enough to absorb the new entrants to the labor force.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)