Arizona Outlook

When growing, Arizona's economy races ahead of New Mexico. When not growing, Arizona's economy races behind New Mexico. We know Arizona's situation because the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona tells us. See http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu. This is different from New Mexico, as has been noted here before.

The new issue of Arizona's Economy says the state probably already is in recession. That means shrinking total employment. Real estate is the biggest source of trouble. Arizona is one of the four states hit worst by foreclosures. Construction has lost 23,600 jobs since May 2006 with more losses expected. Manufacturing is down 6,100 in the same period. Financial services is down 2,200 jobs since May 2007 with more coming as mortgage lending operations close. Further losses are seen in real estate support businesses such as title companies, landscapers and real estate brokers. Residential building permits, 65,459 in 2006, may bottom out at 38,500 in 2008 with 30,000 a possibility.

The brunt of all this excitement is in the Phoenix-Mesa metro area. Wage jobs in Tucson should grow slightly this year with residential building permits dropping "only" 4.2%.

Arizona's Economy also reported the first detailed look at the business of astronomy and planetary and spaces sciences research in Arizona. Most of the money comes from various places in the federal government, making it a "basic" industry in economic developer's vernacular. Eleven observatories were among the 22 organizations responding to the study's survey. These organizations employ about 1,800 people, a quarter of them Ph.Ds. Similar numbers should appear for New Mexico, if anyone ever asks.