Abq Leads Job Production

Albuquerque continues to lead the job production parade among New Mexico’s metro areas. Wage jobs in the Duke City increased by 10,000 between November 2017 and November 2018.
The numbers, which are preliminary, are in the Labor Market Review newsletter, released late today by the Department of Workforce Solutions.
Albuquerque grabbed 55% of the 18,100 new wage jobs reported statewide (a 2.1% increase) for the November to November year. These preliminary numbers will take a big in early March when a cleaner set of statistics are plugged in. For now, though, the good cheer of 2%+ job growth will carry into the new year.
The other three metro areas did grow, just a lot less than Albuquerque. In alphabetical order, it was Farmington, +400 jobs, 0.8%; Las Cruces, +500 jobs, 0.7%; Santa Fe, +500 job, 0.8%.
The big growth for Albuquerque came in professional and business services, up 3,500, and leisure and hospitality, up 2,000.
Government added 2,200 jobs with 1,400, or 64%, in state government as Gov. Susana Martinez prepared to end her eight years in office.

Employment Supposedly Grows 2.1%. Downward Adjustment Expected

For November, New Mexico joined 40 other states with a stable unemployment rate. We held at 4.6%. We had the nation’s largest unemployment rate decline over the past year (-1.4 percentage points).
Alaska kept the nation’s highest unemployment rate with 6.3%. We are tied with Ohio for seventh place. The five states between us and Alaska include those perennial favorites, Mississippi and West Virginia.
Our 2.1% increase in employment (17,700 jobs), year over year, is considered statistically significant by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which prepares the numbers and sends them to the states to massage. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the November employment numbers about 3:30 this afternoon.
The guess from state economists is that these pretty 2%+ job increase numbers will be statistically adjusted down about a percentage point early next year. Fake news?The change will come as part of an annual rebasing of job reports.
Leisure and hospitality (tourism) continues to lead sector job production on a not seasonally adjusted basis with employment growing 7,000 jobs, an astonishing 7.3%, between Novembers. Construction followed with 3,000 jobs for a 4.3% increase statewide.
Professional and business services grew by 2,500, followed by transportation, up 1,700, and health care and social assistance, up 1,400.

Unemployment Rate Drop Leads Nation

New Mexico’s wage job production continues to rock along, at least in Albuquerque and the rural counties.
Statewide, there was a net of 23,100 wage jobs that appeared between October 2017 and October 2018, a 2.8% increase. Albuquerque scored the same 2.8% growth which meant 11,000 new metro Duke City jobs over the year.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the numbers yesterday in the Labor Market Review newsletter.
Seasonally adjusted, our job gain was 2.7%. Utah appears to have tied Washington with a 3.3% gain that was second nationally. (Nevada led.) Colorado was “down” with us with a 2.7% gain. New Mexico’s seasonally adjusted year-over-year drop in the unemployment rate—from 6% to 4.6% led the states.
Among the other three metro areas, Santa Fe did OK with 800 new jobs, a 1.3% increase. Farmington gained 100 jobs, Las Cruces lost 200.
Among the sectors, statewide leisure and hospitality (mostly tourism) led with 7,400 new jobs, year over year, a 7.7% gain. (Lament: Oh, those low paying jobs…) Professional and business services followed with a 5.2% gain and 5,500 jobs. At 5.7%, transportation, warehousing and utilities were another big percentage gainer. The sector added 1,400 jobs.
Government added a net of 500 jobs. The gain came in local government, up 2,000. State government offset by losing 1,200 jobs. State government added 1,300 jobs in metro Albuquerque.

Home Sales Continue Up on Year-Over-Year Basis

As interest rates edged up, the October surprise in the metro Albuquerque market for single family detached homes is a drop of just 14 units from September to make 1,017 closed sales during the month. The percentage change was a minus 1.4% from the 1,031 closed sales during September. The October closed sales represented a 3.6% increase from 982 closed sales during October 2017.
Deals are getting done. October’s closed sales consumed nearly all the 1,037 sales that were pending in September. During October pending sales increased to 1,094, up 54 units, or 5.2%, from September.
Those 1,017 October sales closed in an average of 43 days, a period three days, or 6.5%, faster than a year before, but three days longer than the 40-day average sales period during September. The 43-day average time on market was the longest since 46 days during April.
The 1,337 homes listed for sale during October was up from the last two Octobers. It was 1,315 during October 2017 and 1,224 a year earlier. However, 22 fewer homes entered the market during October than during September, a month with 30 days where October has 31.
The median price of those October closed sales—$199,000—was flat during October, both as compared to September 2018 and to October 2017. For attached homes (townhouses and condos), it was different. The October median price—$160,500—was highest of 2018, up from $150,000 in September and from $151,500 during October 2017.
The average price dropped $5,080 from October 2017 to $231,462 in October 2018 and was down $7,820 from September. October’s average price was the lowest since March.

Eddy and Lea Counties and Metro Abq Lead September Wage Job Growth

New Mexico continued a strong job performance in the year from September 2017 to September 2018. The state added 19,600 wage jobs for a 2.3% increase over the year.
The Department of Workforce Services released detailed September job numbers late this afternoon in its Labor Market Review newsletter.
Metro Albuquerque kept pace with the state, scoring 2.3% wage job growth for the year, the result of 9,000 new jobs. The Albuquerque performance was good for 46% of the state’s net new wage jobs.
Job growth in the state’s other three metro areas shuffled along with Farmington the unlikely “hot spot,” reporting 1.2% growth (600 jobs), Las Cruces with 0.4% growth (300 jobs) and no change in Santa Fe’s job levels for the year.
Te real growth was in Eddy and Lea counties, both back to booming with Permian Basin oil and gas production. For the counties we must count “employment,” which is a bit different from wage jobs, but close enough for our purposes. Eddy County employment was 30,244 during September 2018. That’s 9% growth for the September to September year and an employment increase of 2,506. Lea County employment grew by 2,353, a 9.1% increase to 28,127.
Combined, metro Albuquerque and Lea and Eddy counties grabbed 71% of the year-over-year growth.
A curiosity is that, statewide, mining (and logging) show a one-year of a mere 100 jobs. Go figure.
The growing sectors across the state were leisure and hospitality (+5,100 or 5.2%), professional and business services (+4,300 or 4.1%) and construction (+3,700 or 8%).
Professional and business services (+4,200 or 6.9%) led the metro Albuquerque year-over-year growth, followed by construction (+1,200 or 5.1%). Note that the professional and business services growth outside Albuquerque was 100 jobs.
In the newsletter, DWS passed along some demographic estimates for 2017 from the Census Bureau.
At 48.8% Hispanic, New Mexico isn’t quite a majority Hispanic, but is much more Hispanic than the nation which is 18.1% Hispanic. We are also 3.5 percentage points more “white only,” 75.8% to 72.3%.
A compared to the nation, New Mexico is a bit younger, with both more children under 14 and more adults over 65.
We move less often than does the rest of the nation, but it seems that the people who do move were born in New Mexico. Natives to the state (meaning people born in New Mexico) comprise 53.4% of New Mexicans as compared to 58.2% of the nation. It’s those young families who leave seeking opportunity and the rest resting on the claimed wisdom of centuries of family residence.

Metro Abq Home Sales Show Seasonal Drop

During September, Metro Albuquerque sales of single family detached homes went back to the seasonal pattern of declining sales month over month. Closed sales peaked in May at 1,240 units, then dropped for two months before a slight increase to 1,192 units.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the September sales report last week.
The September performance was 1,031 sales, a 5.1% drop from August, which had an extra day. The sales were 3.1% ahead of September 2017. Of the past 12 months, on closed sales in June have been behind the same month as 2017.
Pending sales show the same pattern—two months of decline after the 2018 high in June, an increase in August to 1,164 and then a 127 unit, or 11%, decline in September to 1,037. The September pending performance was 22.1% ahead of September 2018.
Homes sold after an average of 40 days on the market, which ties May and June for the shortest sales period of the past year. Home took 43 days to sell during September 2017.
The median sales price dropped $15,010 to $199,990 from $215,000 in August, which was the highest median price of the year. The median price in September 2017 was $201,000. The September 2018 median price was 0.5% less.
In August the average price hit a 12-month high of $252,096. The average price in September was $239,282, a $12,814, or 5.1% drop.
The inventory of homes offered for sale—3,298 in September—dropped for the second month. The 12-month high was 3,728 homes during October 2017. There were 4,331 homes offered for sale during September 2016.
Mortgage rates, up about a point during the past year, are squeezing demand.

Gary Johnson Senate Campaign

The hot news here is that there is a Gary Johnson campaign. Johnson is the Libertarian candidate for the U.S. Senate seat held by Martin Heinrich, a Democrat.
Last night about 5 PM I heard a radio ad for Johnson. Then about an hour later a man knocked on my door seeking voter preference indications for the Senate race. He asked about Johnson first, so I take it he was working for Johnson.
The other candidate is Marc Rich, a Republican, who has put up a few signs.
It seems a bit curious that the Johnson campaign would spend staff on my heavily democratic precinct north of the University of New Mexico. But, hey, such decisions are not my decisions.

Albuquerque: 6,900 New Wage Jobs; Las Cruces 1,200 Fewer

The continuing mystery of Las Cruces is one headline from the new issue of the Labor Market Review newsletter released late this afternoon by the Department of Workforce Solutions.
These numbers are not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted.
Wage jobs in Las Cruces dropped 1,200, or 1.7%, in the year between August 2017 and August 2018.
Metro Albuquerque scored nearly half the state’s 16,100 new wage jobs with a 6,900 job increase, or 2%, for the August to August year.
Metro Santa Fe (Santa Fe County) added 1,100 jobs with metro Farmington (San Juan County) showing a nice change with 900 new jobs, a 1.9% increase.
For the month between July and August, Albuquerque’s net was not much, a job increase of 100, which DWS observed in droll economistese, “represented zero percent growth after rounding.”
Construction lost 800 jobs, leisure and hospitality was down 400 with finance down 300. Professional and business services added 400 jobs; retail, 200; education and health services, 200; and information and manufacturing, both up 100. State government saved the day with 700 additional jobs.
For the year in Albuquerque, professional and business services drove the growth with 4,100 new jobs, a 6.7% increase. State government grew by 1,900 jobs.
In Santa Fe the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.7% in July and 3.8% in August. Hardly anyone in Santa Fe wanting a job is unemployed.
For the month, the number of wage jobs dropped 800 in Santa Fe with the losses in the private sector. Over the year, leisure and hospitality added 800 jobs, a 7.1% increase. Education and health services added 400 jobs, for 3.7% growth.
In Las Cruces, government added 1,300 jobs and total wage jobs grew by 1,600. For year, government lost 1,300 jobs.

Job Growth Slips from 2.2% in July to 1.9% for August

Distracted, again. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the initial August job numbers on Friday, September 21. Here are those numbers.
Wage job growth between August 2017 and August 2018 slipped from July with the percentage growth, 1.9%, down from 2.2% for the July to July year, and the 16,900 job increase was down from 17,900 for July. The unemployment rate, 4.6% in August, continued to drop. The rate was 6% in August 2017. That’s almost a 25% drop in a year. Nice.
Primary sectors all grew nicely. Leisure and hospitality against led the sector job production with 5,500 jobs, a 5.5% increase. The percentage growth was 6.6% in July with 6,500 new jobs. I stick with the theory that the leisure and hospitality growth has much more to do with the national economic health and with the performance of New Mexico’s neighbors such as Utah and Colorado, which are booming or close to it. Those resident are bringing some of their spare money here.
Professional and business services added 4,000 jobs for 3.8% growth. Construction gained 2,300 jobs, or 5%. The smaller mining sector added 700 jobs for 3.3% growth. Even manufacturing added 700 jobs for a 3.8% increase.
Transportation, warehousing and utilities added 1,700 jobs, a nice 7% increase, possibly in part reflecting drilling growth in Lea and Eddy counties; you’ve got transport all that petroleum somehow.
Arizona’s 4.6% August unemployment rate tied New Mexico. West Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana have pushed ahead of New Mexico in unemployment ranking. Alaska retains the nation’s highest rate with 6.7% followed by the District of Columbia.

During August, Abq Single Family Home Prices Post 2018 High

The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the August sales report eight days ago. Our time slipped away to Santa Fe and Las Cruces. Here are the numbers, belatedly.
Sales closed for single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque were 1,171 during August. That’s up 4.8% from August 2017 and less, 2%, from July 2018. Closed sales were 1,240 in May, the 2018 high, and 1212 in June. The homes with the sale closed during August were on the market for an average 41 days, three days longer than during July and a day more than June, but three days, or 6.8%, less than the 44 days for August 2017.
My former rule-of-thumb relationship between sales closed in one month and sales pending in the previous month is upset if not destroyed. It seems that nearly all the sales pending in one month are closing the next month. For example, the 1,171 sales closed during August followed 1,144 pending sales during July. The old 45-day closing period now looks more like 30 days.
Prices continue up. Both the median and the average prices during August increased more than six percent from August 2017. August’s sales prices were the highest of 2018.
The median price for August was $215,000, a $7,500, or 3.6%, increase from July. The June median price was $211,670.
The average price grew $5,070 during August to $251,598, a $5,070 hike, or 2.1%.
There were 3,326 homes available for sale during August, a 16.4% drop.
So let’s see: With a reduced supply, we find higher prices.

Martinez Legacy Claims Are Nonsense

Gov. Susana Martinez seems to be operating on the theory that if you say something often enough, people will believe. I once knew a radio sales manager with the same theory.
On December 13, 2017, the Albuquerque Journal’s Dan McKay reported on fliers mailed by a non-profit group New Mexico Legacy. The fliers touted the Martinez record. McKay’s email inquiry to group secretary Jessica Perez drew a response from Jay McCleskey, consigliere to Gov. Susan Martinez.
New Mexico Legacy is back. The corporate officials remain as McKay reported: President, Amy Orlando, Treasurer, Rob Doughty and Jessica Perez, secretary. The listed address is 3736 Eubank Blvd NE, Suite B-3. Doughty, an attorney, is a member of the University of New Mexico board or regents.
The New Mexico Legacy reappearance came in the form of an email I received this afternoon at 2:29.
The email copy said some untrue things and vastly exaggerated others. In the email she claims credit for “turning the largest budget deficit in state history into a $1.2 billion surplus (without raising taxes).” That happy $1.2 billion of “new money” happened because the Permian and Delaware Basins in southeast New Mexico turned into the hottest oil production places in the nation, not because Martinez did anything.
Martinez claims credit for “the unemployment rate dropping from 7.7% in 2011 to under 5% today.” The rate dropped because of the national economic performance somehow dropping through to New Mexico, not because Martinez did anything. Our healthy tourism sector is because people in other states such as Texas and Colorado are prospering and therefore have extra money to spending in New Mexico.
Martinez claims she “has cut taxes and fees 61 times.” Martinez used to talk about 37 tax cuts. I assume the 37 were included in the 61. I reviewed the 37 in a February 2017 column. Two of the bills increased tax rates, one changed definitions and 34 cut taxes. One tax cut winner was a property tax exemption for property owned by a veteran’s organization and used for organization activities. (HB 437 in 2011).
On the website, susanamartinez.com, Martinez claims the $1.2 billion under the headline, “Balancing the Budget.” That the budget was balanced is a standard claim of governors. The claim is specious. The constitution requires that the budget be balanced. Besides, the legislature, in particular the Legislative Finance Committee, has a whole lot to do with budget balancing.
Overall, the Martinez email is bullshit.

Job Growth, Much Improved, Remains Well Behind Neighboring States

Wage jobs grew 2.2%, or 8,600, in Albuquerque for the year between July 2017 and July 2018. That was the same percentage growth turned in by the entire state for the year.
New Mexico’s 2.2% year over year increase tied for 15th placed nationally with Massachusetts. That said, our neighbors remain well ahead. Utah’s 3.9% job growth led the nation. Texas grew 3.2%, Colorado, 3.1% and Arizona, 2.7%.
The figures come from the July issue of the Labor Market Review, the newsletter of the Department of Workforce Solutions, which was released yesterday afternoon.
For the state’s other three metro areas, well, not so much. Santa Fe added 1,000 jobs for 1.6% growth. Farmington added 300, a 0.6% increase for the year.
Las Cruces wage employment shrank by 700 jobs, or 1.0%.
Professional and business services led the Albuquerque growth with a 6.1% increase, or 3,700 jobs. With a 7.3% increase that meant 1,700 new jobs, construction led the percentage growth.
Leisure and hospitality, which led statewide sector growth with 6,500 jobs, or 6.6%, brought only 900 of those jobs to metro Albuquerque.
The Las Cruces job losses come in the face of firms around the Santa Teresa port of entry hiring as fast as possible. Just over half the Santa Teresa workers come from El Paso, a function of proximity and El Paso’s larger labor pool.
Las Cruces has been in a job loss mode for most of the past 18 months. Government seems to have carried the burden of producing those job losses.
Leisure and hospitality led Santa Fe’s growth with 800 new jobs over the year, a 7% increase.

Job Growth Over 2% For Second Month

New Mexico’s job growth was 2.2% for the year between July 2018 and July 2018, according to the report released by the Department of Workforce Solutions this afternoon. That means 17,900 new jobs, on a seasonally unadjusted basis, with about a third, or 6,500, in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has tourism as a big component. Construction continued the rapid growth with a 4,200 job increase, or 9.1%.
Make the seasonal adjustment and the statewide growth is 13,400, or 1.6%, still not bad.
With 4.7% unemployment in July, New Mexico slipped from its long hold on the nation’s third highest state unemployment rate. In addition to Alaska (6.9 %), clinging to its first place with the highest rate, three other states beat New Mexico. They are West Virginia (5.4 percent), Louisiana (4.9 percent), Mississippi (4.8 percent) and the District of Columbia (5.6 percent).
New Mexico went from 6.1% unemployed in July 2017 to 4.7%, more than double the improvement of the next three improving states, all with a 0.6-point change. They are Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Virginia.
The labor force has grown to 943,004 in July 2018, an 11,000 one-year increase. The number of unemployed has dropped about 14,500 over the year, to 47,547.

Up and Downs in July for Metro Albuquerque Real Estate

Nationally a decline in single family home sales is projected for August and September, by RedFin Corp. a brokerage and website firm. The National Association of Realtors projected pending sales would be lower in June, on a year-over-year basis, the sixth month of decline.
The national picture isn’t quite the metro Albuquerque picture, nor are constant increases.
For single family detached home in metro Albuquerque, July registered 1,121 sales closed, a 3.5% increase from July 2018, but down 92 units from 1,213 sales in June, an 8% drop. Homes that had the sales close during July were on the market an average of 38 days, two days less than the 40-day average sale time in May and June.
The Greater Association of Realtors released the July sales report yesterday.
May was the sales peak for the year, so far. Closed sales were 1,240 in May.
Pending sales are an exception, peaking at 1,271 in July, 107 deals, or 9%, ahead of 1,164 in June and 1,234 in May. Those 1,271 pending sales were 15.5% ahead o a year ago. The strong performance suggests a rebound for closed sales in August.
The market continues to tighten. With 3,524 homes available, June was the 2018 inventory peak. The inventory dropped to 3,368 in July. The inventory was down 588 homes, or 14.2% from 3,926 in July 2017. July saw 1,607 new listings hit the market, down 1.3% or 27 units from a year ago. With 1,890 new listing, May was the 2018 peak.
Average prices have trended up since January, except for a small stumble to $238,466 in May. The average price was $246,862, up $2,171 or 0.9% from June and 3.7% above July 2017.
At $211,490, the median price broke the $210,000 ceiling in June but dropped $3,490, or 1.6% in July to $208,000.
The average price for an attached home (a townhouse or condominium) was $158,398, second lowest of 2018, head only of the $156,292 in February.

DWS Projections Show Ten-Year Job Growth At Less Than 1% Annually

With 5,200 new jobs generated in June on a year-over-year basis, Albuquerque provided less than a third of the state’s 17,300 new wage jobs. This is a big step down from May when the Duke City provided 7,300 new jobs, 51% of the 13,800 jobs for the month.
Statewide, the June to June growth saw 17,300 new wage jobs for 2.1% growth. That put New Mexico in a tie with four other states for 12th place in percentage growth. Those states are Oregon, Tennessee, New Hampshire and South Dakota. Amazing.
Last week’s report that New Mexico remained in third place for unemployment rates with 4.9% unemployed missed something. We are actually in fourth place behind West Virginia (5.3%), District of Columbia (5.6%) and Alaska, the longtime leader at 7.1%.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the detailed June job report today as part of the Labor Market Review newsletter.
For the other metros, Santa Fe added 1,200 jobs over the year. Farmington was up 600 and Las Cruces dropped
In Albuquerque professional and business services showed the largest sector gain, both in number with 3,900 jobs and percent with a 6.4% increase. The PBS sector “only” added 4,300 jobs statewide. Leisure and hospitality added 1,100 jobs in Albuquerque, 22% of the sector’s 4,900 new jobs statewide. Local government dropped 2,800 jobs during June, dragging the sector to a 2,600 job loss for the year.
In Las Cruces, government accounted for 800 of the total 900 lost jobs.
Government lost 400 jobs in Santa Fe where the one big increase was leisure and hospitality with 900 more jobs over the year.
From a 2016 base of 861,820, the Department of Workforce Solutions projects that employment in the state will add 57,580 jobs by 2026. That would bring employment to 919,400. The growth for the ten-year period will be 6.7%, or less than one percent per year or hardly at all. Such projection necessarily start with what we have, which, in 2016, was years of slight if any job growth. The projections assume no change in what we had in 2016. The projection, therefore, is “more of the same.”
Health care and social assistance with 25,960 jobs, or a 19.5% increase, leads the sectors. Accommodation and food services, tourism, sort of, is second with 7,120 jobs, or 7.9% growth.
DWS initially distributed the Labor Market Review using May's detailed sector for Albuquerque. It took about 90 minutes to fix the error and redistribute the issue. Nice save, guys.

Jobs Growth Breaks 2% Barrier. Employment Percentage Stays Low

Year over year wage job growth cracked the 2% barrier in June. This is a major hurdle; 2% jobs growth pretty much doesn’t happen in the state. The June 2017 to June 2018 year saw 17,300 new wage jobs for 2.1% growth, on a not seasonally adjusted basis. With adjustment, the growth was 1.5%.
The private sector provided 15,900 jobs with 1,400 in the public sector. The government jobs came from local government, up 3,700 jobs including 2,200 in education. The state dropped 1,500 jobs and the feds lost 800.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the June job figures this afternoon.
At 0.2 percentage points, New Mexico tied Pennsylvania and South Carolina for the largest drop in unemployment, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even with the drop, New Mexico keeps third place in unemployment rates with 4.9% unemployed. Alaska kept the unemployment rate lead with 7.1%. Washington, D.C., has 5.6%. With 4.7% unemployment, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada and Washington (state) are closing on New Mexico.
New Mexico’s labor force has grown by 25,000 since May 2017.
Leisure and hospital was the big sector gainer with 4,900 new wages jobs from June 2017 to June 2018. Professional and business services followed with 4,300 new jobs. The two sectors have substantial numbers of basic industry jobs.
Trade, transportation, and utilities chipped in with 2,200 new jobs. Financial businesses followed with 1,500 jobs.
Another June milestone was reporting zero counties with more than 10% unemployment. Luna County, the longtime carrier of the 10% plus unemployment standard, somehow found 1,150 new jobs between May and June that dropped the county unemployment rate to nine percent.
Lea and Eddy counties provided 4,400 jobs, year over year, with 2,300 in Lea and 2,100 in Eddy. Thank you Permian Basin.
My wet blanket for the month is the employment to population ratio. For 2017, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says, New Mexico held at third from the bottom with just 53.9% of the population employed. West Virginia remains the lowest at 50.5% followed by Mississippi at 53.1%.
North Dakota has 69.6 percent of its people employed, followed by Minnesota at 53.9% and Minnesota at 53.9%.

Abq Single Family Homes Sales Drop by 11 in June. Wow!

Sales dropped 11 units during June from May for single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque. That’s 0.92%. The performance was down 58 units, or 4.7%, from June 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the June sales report yesterday.
Pending sales in one month offer a rough indication of closed sales the following month. June’s pending sales of 1,279 homes was 94 fewer that the 1,373 sales pending during May. However the June pending performance was up 154 from June 2017, a healthy 13,7% increase.
Homes continue to sell quickly. Homes sold during June was on the market just 40 days, on average, the same as May and a week less than during June 2017. This average sales period is the shortest of the past year.
Month-over-month, the median price has increased since January when it was $189,000. The June median price was $212,500. The median was $199,950 for June 2017, and, for May 2018, it was $209,000.
With the exception of a blip during May 2018, the average price also has increased in since January. The average price was $238,458 in May, $244,365 during June, and $242,360 for June 2017.
The inventory of homes offered for sale has been increasing each month since February. The inventory was 3,297 for June, down 15.4% from 3,899 June 2017.

Albuquerque Grabs 53% of May Job Growth

During May, the state’s three small metro areas continued the year-over-year job “growth” patterns from April. The big difference was fewer wage jobs (not seasonally adjusted) lost. Las Cruces lost 800 jobs. Farmington dropped 100. Santa Fe added 600 jobs, making a net loss of 300 jobs among the three. During April the three-metro net loss was 900.
Albuquerque added 7,300 jobs during May, or 1.9%, to account for 53% of the statewide gain of 13,800 jobs, or 1.7%.
The state’s 1.7% gain was less than half of Utah’s 3.5% growth. Other states in the region continued well ahead of New Mexico. Colorado, Nevada and Texas all showed 2.8% year-over-year growth with Arizona just behind at 2.6%. Oklahoma tied New Mexico’s 1.7% with Wyoming at 1.5%.
The broad sector growth was discussed in the June 16 post as was the Eddy / Lea County performance. I won’t repeat.
In Albuquerque professional and business services (lawyers, accountants, engineers, landscape architects) led the sector growth with 3,800 new wage jobs or 6.3% growth. That was 52% of Albuquerque’s job growth over the year. The other happy growing sectors were construction (+1,200), financial (+1,100), leisure and hospitality (+1,100), and trade +(600). Education and health services dropped 1,400 jobs.
In Santa Fe, the gainers were miscellaneous other services, up 400, and leisure and hospitality, up 300.
Las Cruces lost 600 government jobs.

Job Growth Gains Significance

The New Mexico rate of unemployment continues down, though the state retains its grip on the nation’s third highest rate at 5.1% unemployed. The state’s drop in unemployment rate hit the “statistically significant” mark for both the one month change from 5.4% in April to 5.1% in May and year-over-year with the change from 6.2% in May 2017. The one-month performance of -0.3 percentage points was the nation’s best.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the May job report yesterday.
Our year over year seasonally adjusted employment change, a 1.6% increase, was also statistically significant. There were 828,500 people employed in the state in May 2017 and 841,700 in May 2018, a 13,200 increase. The labor force grew by 10,000. Employment grew by 20,000 and unemployment dropped 9,000.
Switching to a not seasonally adjusted basis, Eddy and Lea counties, now dealing with a drilling boom, accounted for a quarter of the year-over-year job growth. Eddy County employment increased by 1,914. Lea employment grew 1,452.
Again not seasonally adjusted basis, over the year, the labor fore grew by 20,000.
The improvement covered most of the major supersectors. (These used to called “sectors.”)
The increases (not seasonally adjusted) were in mining, 300; construction, 2,900 (6.4%); non-durable manufacturing, 700; transportation and warehousing, 1,700; financial, 2,000; professional and business services, 3,000 (3.7%); and leisure and hospitality, 3,400 (3.5%, summer hiring?).
Health care and social assistance and information, both down 700, were the only sectors of size to lose more than a few jobs.
State government education dropped 900 jobs (university summer school?). Local government education dropped 400 (public schools out for the summer?).

Home Sales Drop 2.4% During May From May 2017

During May the sale closed for 88% of the homes with sale pending. That’s a number relationship, not reality. But the suggestion is that the sale went through on nearly all the potential sales. That’s a change.
The sale closed during May for 1,200 single family detached homes, a 2.4% drop from May 2017. Those homes were on the market an average of 40 days, a 9.1% quicker sale than during May 2017. The old rule of thumb was that a home sale took 45 days to close, plus or minus.
The inventory of homes for sale was 3,035, 17.7%, or 651 less than a year ago.
Put all these figures together and it seems as if the metro Albuquerque market is getting really, really tight. The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the May sales report today.
Pending sales did increase during May, as compared to a year before, up 244, or 21.6%. That increase was a mere 15 over April, so year-over-year implies not much. It was the largest percentage increase in pending sales for more than a year.
The median sales price, $210,000 during May increased from April, up $5,000, or 3%. A year ago during May, the median price was $199,000.
However, the average price, $239,281 for May, dropped a bit from April, down one percent, or $2,756. April’s average price increased 1.6% from April 2017.

Albuquerque Continues to Lead Metro Job Production

Together New Mexico’s three smaller metro areas lost wage 800 jobs in the year between April 2017 and April 2018. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the detailed job report today in the Labor Market Review newsletter. The job totals are not seasonally adjusted.
Las Cruces was the leader, down 1,400 jobs, or 1.9%. Farmington chipped in with another 200 lost jobs, or 0.2%. Santa Fe made up almost half the loses with an increase over the year of 700 jobs or 1.1%
Albuquerque remained the metro jobs producer with an increase of 4,900 jobs, or 1.2%.
As reported last week, the state’s wage job total grew 1.2%, or 10,000 jobs. The 1.2% job increase tied three Deep-Sough states for 24th place nationally—Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi. Our neighbors continued in the top ten. Utah led with a 3.4% job increase from April 2017 to April 2018. Texas was fourth, Colorado, sixth, Arizona, seventh.
The Las Cruces year-over-year loses were 86% public sector, or 1,200 jobs. Of those 1,200, state government lost 1,000 with local and federal government each dropping 100. Leisure and hospitality lost 400 Las Cruces jobs; education and health services gained 400.
Given that, statewide, the state government education sector lost 1,500 jobs, a guess is that the Las Cruces loses were at New Mexico State University.
In metro Albuquerque, the only sector of size to lose jobs was education and health services, down 1,600 to 63,300, keeping it the metro area’s largest job sector and 200 jobs ahead of professional and business services which gained 3,000 to total 63,100.
In Santa Fe, only leisure and hospitality, up 700 jobs, added more than 200 jobs.

April Home Sales Up 10%

Metro Albuquerque sales of single family detached homes continue to show a year-over-year increase. The other news is that interest rates are going up, which is expected to slow sales nationally. How much slowing? No idea.
In Albuquerque closed sales for April were 1,089 homes, a 10.3%, or 102 home, growth from April 2017 but just a tiny 23 home increase from 1,066 closed sales during March.
Pending sales for April—1,358 homes—were up a nice 15.6% from 1,175 in April 2017, but actually dropped six units from March.
The homes sold in an average of 47 days, four days faster than during April 2017 and six days faster than during March.
On a year-over-year comparison, prices continued the upward march. The median sales price during April was $205,000, a 5.1% hike, or $10,000, from March 2017. The $205,000 median price was $7,000 ahead of March.
The story of the April average prices, $242,037, is more complex. The average price was up from April 2017 by 2.5%, or $5,799. But it dropped a tiny bit—$495—from $242,532 in March.
The inventory of homes for sale, 2,808 during April, increased 168 homes from March, but was down 17.1% from 3,389 during April 2018.

Metro Albuquerque, Eddy and Lea Counties Dominate Job Growth

New Mexico’s year-over-year wage job growth kicked back up in April with a gain of 10,100, or 1.2%. The gain was 8,900 in the year from March 2017 to March 2018.
All the growth was in the private sector; government lost a net of 500 jobs, driven by 1,500 fewer jobs in state government education, i.e., higher education.
The state government payroll has declined by more than 2,100 jobs since the budget year that ended June 30, 2011. Gov. Susana Martinez took office in January 2011, Charles Sallee, deputy director of the Legislative Finance Committee, told the Tax Research Institute conference May 10. “The size of state government has continued to shrink,” Sallee said. There have been “some efficiencies,” he said, but some critical areas such as corrections and child protective services are simply short of people with turnover rates exceeding 20% and vacancy rates of more than 10%.
The state’s unemployment rate dropped another 0.2 percentage points for the April-to-April year. This rate ties West Virginia for second highest among the states. Washington, D.C., with 5.6% unemployment, is just ahead. Alaska remains first with 7.3% unemployment. For months and months New Mexico has stood along with the second highest rate. New Mexico was one of four states with a lower unemployment for the period.
With 3,900 new wage jobs, professional and business services led the job production from April 2017 to April 2018. The past month produced 2,800 jobs.
Construction added 3,100 jobs during the year with 2,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality and 1,700 in financial activities. Even manufacturing, a perennial loser, added 1,000 jobs. Mining added 200.
Education and health services, which led the state economy as Medicaid expanded, lost 700 jobs. The other year-over-year losers are the information sector, with 1,400 fewer jobs and retail trade, down 1,200.
Metro Albuquerque and the rural counties continue to dominate job growth. The latest metro figures are for the year from March 2017 to March 2018.
The state added 8,900 jobs for the period. Metro Albuquerque provided 5,300 of the jobs, or 60%. The other three metro areas together grew a net of 600 jobs. That means the 26 rural counties added 4,200 jobs.
Metro Las Cruces (Dona Ana County) lost 1,600 jobs. Santa Fe added 600 jobs with 400 more jobs in Farmington, which has been on a long downer.
Professional and business services led the Albuquerque growth 2,200 new jobs over the year. Government added 700 jobs including 600 in state government.
Santa Fe added 500 jobs in leisure and hospitality and 400 in professional and business services. Just one private sector sector, transportation, added jobs (+100) in Las Cruces. State government lost 900 jobs.
Solid year-over-year growth continued in the Eddy and Lea counties, accounting for around two-thirds of the rural job growth for the period.

NM Economy Improving; Long Way To Go

The “overall message” from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City regional economist Alison Felix on April 18 was, “Things are improving. There is a long way to go.”
Felix spoke in Albuquerque at the Fed’s Albuquerque Economic Forum.
Today Felix got a supporting new number from the Department of Workforce Solutions and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. New Mexico’s unemployment dropped another two tenths of a point in March to 5.6%, down from 5.8% in February and 6.3% in March 2017. Maine, Ohio and Wyoming were the other states with over-the-month unemployment rate decreases. In Maine, hardly anyone is unemployed; the rate is 2.7%.
But on the other hand, that favorite economist’s expression, the state’s unemployment remained second highest in the nation, a point DWS ignored. The good news starts from a low (or high) base.
Metro Albuquerque, with 46% of employment in the state has 4.7% unemployment.
The state added 8,900 wage jobs (seasonally unadjusted) from March 2017 to March 2018 for 1.1% growth. The growth appears erratic. There were 11,000 new year-over-year jobs in February, 7,000 in January and 10,800 in December.
Construction remains the sector growth leader with 3,000 new jobs in the March year, a 4.7% increase. Manufacturing, with 1,200 new jobs, tied construction for the percentage increase lead with 4.7% growth. That manufacturing is growing at all suggests improvement in the New Mexico economy. In part, Felix said, the manufacturing slump has been tied to energy, which supports a lot of manufacturing.
Employment growth has reached Lea and Eddy counties, the oil production heartland. (Note: “employment” is different from “jobs,” developed by different methods. The categories are closely related, of course.)
Lea County employment grew by 1,310 or 5.1%, year over year. Eddy employment grew 2,026. The county job growth seems curious in light of zero mining sector job growth. The two counties do have other things happening such as Carlsbad Caverns and Urenco’s National (uranium) Enrichment Facility near Eunice.
On yet another hand for Lea and Eddy, the drilling boom in the Permian Basin that includes Lea and Eddy is running into some of the bottlenecks characterizing booms, starting a labor shortage. Pipeline capacity is beginning to be problem, the Wall Street Journal reported April 19. Pipelines for natural gas, producing along with oil, are having some of the same dilemmas. “Some producers face the prospect of shutting wells,” the Journal said.
Professional and business services was the number two job producing sector with additional of 2,600. Leisure and hospitality added 1,900. Financial activities grew by 1,200. Transportation, warehousing and utilities added 1,000.
Retail trade, down 1,100, led the losers followed by information and state government education, both down 1,000, and health care, which lost 700.

Abq Home Sales and Prices Up, Inventory down

Metro Albuquerque real estate sales people got it in gear during March. They closed the sale of 34.4 single family homes on the average day during the month. That’s almost ten more sales each day that during February. The sale of 1,066 homes closed during the month, 3.4%, or 35 homes more than March 2017, and 373 homes, or 54% more than during February.
Remember that March had three more days than February. The same sort of sales jump between February and March happened during 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the March sales report yesterday.
Pending sales increased 19% to 1,364 during March from 1,142 during February. Pending sales were up 17.8% from March 2017. Seasonality explains at least part of the increase; metro sales increase as the weather warms.
Prices are trending up. Median prices were 187,500 during January, 194,500 for February and $198,000 during March. For Average prices, it was $217,679 during January, $225,342 during February and $242,532 for March. The March average price represented an increase of almost $20,000, or 9%, from $222,574 in March 2017.
The March sales increase comes in the face of a flat inventory of homes available for sale. The metro inventory was 2,671 during January, 2,613 during February and 2,645 during March.
The metro market for single family attached homes showed the same behavior during March with pending and closed sales increasing along with median and average prices.

Metro Job Growth Up From January Rate

Metro area job growth increased on a year-over-year basis from the numbers reported for January. The numbers come from the Labor Market Review, the newsletter of the Department of Workforce Solutions which was released late yesterday afternoon.
For the year between February 2017 and February 2018, Albuquerque added 5,800 jobs; Santa Fe 800; and Farmington 900. Las Cruces dropped 1,500 for the February year, 100 more than disappeared between January 2017 and January 2018. During February Las Cruces added 1,400 jobs, all in government. As reported last week the state added 5,800 jobs.
The state’s 11,000 new jobs over the year represented 1.3% growth which tied for 20th place nationally with four others.
February was a good month for those seeking government jobs. Statewide there were 6,800 new jobs in government (not seasonally adjusted), nearly all in education. State government education added 3,700 jobs with another 2,500 in local government (the k-12 segment).
Albuquerque claimed 2,700 new government jobs during February (40% of the total). There were 1,600 new government jobs in Las Cruces (24%) including 1,400 in state government. For the month, Santa Fe got 1,200 government jobs (18%) with 900 in local government. Farmington should feel left out with only 300 new government jobs.
The year-over-year sector leaders in metro Albuquerque were construction (+2,100), professional and business services (+1,400) and leisure and hospitality (+1,100). In Las Cruces, state government was the largest sector growth leader, down 1,000. Santa Fe’s sector growth leader was leisure and hospitality, up 500.

Unemployment Rates Drops to 5.8%; Still Second Nationally

During February New Mexico’s unemployment rate continued to go lower, dropping 5.8% from 6.4% in February 2017. The change was enough to get the “statistically significant” label from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state still ranks second nationally in the unemployment rate, but is widening the gap with Alaska, the leader.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released the new BLS numbers yesterday.
New Mexico’s 0.1 point drop in the unemployment rate between January and February made the state one of seven with an unemployment rate decline for the month. However nice, the drop did not rate significance.
New Mexico’s labor force grew by about 7,000 during the year from February 2017 to February 2018, going from 928,003 to 935,149. The number of unemployed dropped from 59,775 to 53,927.
Construction was the sector leader in job additions with 3,500. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted.
Among growing basic industries, leisure and hospitality led with 2,300. Professional and business services added 1,500 with 1,000 more in manufacturing (a big switch for a sector that has been disappearing) and 700 more in mining.
Financial activities added 1,500 jobs for the year. Education and health care show no change, another big switch for a sector that a couple of years ago accounted for nearly all the state’s minimal job growth.
Government gained 300 jobs over the year, a net figure that includes 1,000 fewer education jobs. State government education (universities) lost 800 jobs with 200 gone from local government education (the public schools).

Revisions Reduce 2017 Job Totals

For the year between January 2017 and January 2018, the state’s three job-gaining metro areas produced 5,100 new wage jobs.
Albuquerque accounted for 56% of the statewide year-over-year job growth with 3,900 new wage jobs, a one percent increase. Farmington’s 1.9% increase led the metro percentage growth. Santa Fe added 300 jobs for a 0.5% increase. However, throw in Las Cruces, which lost 1,400 jobs or two percent, for the year and the net metro performance becomes 3,700 new jobs.
The numbers come from the Labor Market Review, the newsletter of the Department of Workforce Solutions which was released yesterday.
For readers’ added enjoyment, the Review offered a bonus, a huge typographical error in the main headline which said, “Highlights: January 2017 Labor Market Data.”
New Mexico’s 0.9% growth lagged next worst performing of eight other peer states in the southwest and Rocky Mountains by half a percentage point. That state was Wyoming with 1.4% job growth for the year.
The state’s unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% in January 2017 to 5.9% in January 2018. We remain entrenched in the ranking of second worst unemployment rate among the states, behind only Alaska, which has 7.3% unemployment.
The new numbers reflect the annual benchmarking process of the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. This process plugs into the job reports, which usually come from a sampling, a broader count through the quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. With the revisions, individual sectors have their ups and downs.
Overall the revisions were not good news. The average growth rate for 2016 dropped to 0.3%, or 2,800 jobs. The improved performance for the state during 2017 came on a smaller base than was initially supposed. The revisions dropped the average wage job total by 9,000 to 830,500.
Two key sectors gained in reported average employment. Mining was revised up an average of 2,000 jobs. The change made the jobs gains in Lea and Eddy counties consistent with the sector gains. As noted in last week’s post, mining showed a 700-job gain for the year, a nice turn from a month ago when the sector performance was down 700 jobs for the December 2016 to December 2017 year. Professional and business services shows 1,300 more jobs, on average for the year.
The larger drops came in retail trade (2,500), educational services (1,900), leisure and hospitality (2,900) and state government education which mostly means universities (2,000).

Employment Rate Drops to 5.9% as Primary Sectors Add Jobs

Even perennially laggard mining/logging sector gained 700 jobs on a not seasonally adjusted basis between during the year between January 2017 and January 2018. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the initial January job report today.
A number of key sectors added jobs during the year, suggesting, just maybe, that the New Mexico economy is improving, though not a lot on a percentage basis. The figures released today include revisions done as part of what DWS calls the annual benchmarking process. We will know more in a week. That’s when DWS will release its Labor Market Review that will discuss the revisions in detail.
Manufacturing, the other main laggard among the basic industry sectors, added 800 jobs for 3.1% growth.
Construction led the sector performers on a year over year not seasonally adjusted basis with 4,100 more jobs, a 9.6% increase. This too will pass.
Leisure and hospitality led primary sectors with 1,300 more jobs, up 1.4%, followed by professional and business services, up 1.2% or 1,200 jobs.
The state’s unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% to 5.9% during the past year, a seasonally adjusted change considered statistically significant by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the numbers. The labor force grew by about 5,500 during the year while unemployment dropped by 5,500.

February Average Daily Home Sales Up From January

Sales of single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque recovered a bit in February, though the number of closed sales tells a different tale. The trick is that February had just 28 days. While February’s 693 closed sales were down from January’s 721 sales, February averaged 24.75 sales per day while January, with 721 closed sales, averaged 23.26 sales per day. The February performance beat February 2017 by 37 units, or 5.6%, but was well behind December 2017, which had 904 closed sales, a rate of 29.16 per day.
February saw the sale closed of 67% of the 1,037 sales that were pending during January, a low figure.
Pending sales increased 105 units, or 10%, from January to 1,142 for February. The performance was 22.4%, or 209 units, ahead of February 2017. The increase suggests improvement in March sales.
Both median and average sale prices, while up from February 2017, remain below November 2017. The median price for the February sales was $194,500. The average price was $225,342.
Home sold in an average 58 days during February, a week faster than during February 2017, but slower than the closing months of 2017.
The inventory of homes offered for sale continues down. It was 2,613 during February and 3,565 During August 2017. The inventory was 3,194 during February 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the February sales report today.

Grisham Emails Keep Inviting Comment

It’s not that I have anything especially against Michelle Lujan Grisham; it’s just that the invitations to comment keep coming via her fund raising emails directed to small donors to her campaign for governor.
The latest appeared February 24. Lujan appears confused about the beginning of Gov. Susana Martinez’ term as governor. Lujan said, “New Mexico has had eight years of failed Republican leadership.” But the Martinez term didn’t start until January 1, 2011. So Grisham is off by ten months. That’s an error of fact and all errors of fact get an F.
The Grisham campaign runs on fear, especially, it seems to me, fear of Steve Pearce, her fellow member of congress and Republican candidate for governor.
Her latest rant is about money. It appeared February 20, continuing the left’s theme that money in politics is evil. She focuses on the Koch brothers of Wichita, KS, favorite left wing bogeymen.
She writes that the brothers “are planning to spend around $400 million in untraceable dark money during the midterm elections—and they’ve singled our race as one for which they are willing to spend big to win.” She cites Pearce’s $900,000 (or so) in congressional campaign funds that he was able to transfer to his governor’s race.
Observation: Money in politics means communications. Sometimes the message works, sometime it doesn’t. Much depends on the messenger.
For example, according to New Mexico News Port, Mayor Tim Keller, all purity, took $544,000 in public funds for his race. But, the article said, “a political committee that formed specifically to support him, Albuquerque Forward Together” raised $674,000, bringing Keller’s total to $1.2 million. Keller also got in-kind donations that were ruled a violation of campaign regulations.
Keller gamed the system and won.
For Ricardo Chaves, spending didn’t work. Chaves $525,000 got him one percent of the vote in the first round.
In the Alabama senate race last year, Doug Jones, the Democrat and the winner, spent about $12 million. The incredibly awful loser, Roy Moore, raised $5 million, Newsweek said. Jones won by 22,000 votes or, 1.5%. Jones’ money helped with his communications.
In 2016 Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful campaign spent $768 million, the Washington Post reported. Donald Trump spent $398 million.
The Koch brothers are active in New Mexico these days through their Americans for Prosperity organization.

Home Sales Start 2018 Nicely

Maybe it was the warm weather. Maybe it was the jobs, few as they are, being added to the metro Albuquerque economy.
Whatever the reason, metro Albuquerque sales of single family homes started the year nicely with 721 closed sales representing a 7.6% increase over January 2017. Everything being relative and seasonal, however, the January sales were 20% down from the 904 sales in December 2017.
The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the January sales report today.
Pending sales, the predictor of closed sales the following month, suggest a good February. January pending sales were 1,037 homes, 28.7% above a year ago and 11%, or 104 homes, above February 2017.
Homes continue to sell faster than a year ago. Homes took an average of 58 days to sell during January. That was four days or 6.5% faster than January 2017. There were 2,671 homes offered for sale during January, a drop of 570 homes, or 17.6%, from a year ago. Inventory dropped two percent, or 65 homes, from December.
Prices changed little from January 2017. January’s average price, $217,679, was down 0.6%, or $1,237, from January 2017. However, that $217,679 was down $12,501, or five percent from December 2017. The average sales price had been over $230,000 for nine months.
The median price during January was $187,500, up 1.1% or $2,000, from January 2017 but down $6,400 or three percent from December.
Sales of attached homes (townhouses or condominiums), 77 during January, were up 30.5% from January 2017. The 118 pending sales were 53% increase from a year before.

Lea Eddy & Metro Albuquerque Grab 72% of new 2017 Jobs

For wage job gains during 2017, it was metro Albuquerque and two rural counties. As reported last week, when the summary numbers were released, the state added 10,800 jobs. Albuquerque gained 4,400 jobs, or 41% of the state total. Eddy and Lea counties, both considered rural gained 3,400 jobs, or 31% of the total.
Farmington, Las Cruces and Santa Fe, the other three metro areas, lost 300 jobs between them for the year between December 2016 and December 2017. Government, down 700 jobs, pulled Las Cruces into the red for 2017. Local government around the Las Cruces metro dropped 600 jobs.
The Department of Workforce Solutions released metro job details yesterday.
Including making up the 300 lost metro jobs, the remaining 24 rural counties gained 3,000 jobs, or 28% of the new jobs scattered around about the home of half the state’s population.
Those 3,100 new leisure and hospitality jobs reported last week included 900 jobs added in December. A guess is that total will take a hit as ski areas continue without natural snow. So will supporting retail.
The small (20,100 jobs) financial sector led Albuquerque’s year-over-year growth with 1,600 jobs, an 8.6% hike. Leisure and hospitality followed with 1,400 jobs, or 3.4%.

State Gains Jobs. Mining Loses. Eddy, Lea Counties Gain

The year-end jobs report shows few signs of life in the New Mexico economy. My assessment is that our economy is weak and getting a little less weak. The claim by Gov. Susana Martinez in the January 16 State of the State address that we are strong and getting stronger is nonsense.
The state added 10,800 wage jobs in the year between December 2016 and December 2017, massive growth of 1.3%. Government lost 700 jobs over the year; the private sector added 11,500. For the month of December, the state lost 500 jobs.
The unemployment rate was six percent in December, nicely down from 6.7% a year ago. The state is now tied Washington, D.C., for the second highest rate behind Alaska. We had been third for months after D.C. and Alaska. The year-over-year unemployment rate drop was big enough to gain the designation of statistical significance from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the numbers for the Department of Workforce Solutions to repackage and release. DWS released the report yesterday. The state’s job gain wasn’t big enough to be significant.
My guess is that the expansion of the national economy explains much for the state’s improvement. For example, leisure and hospitality, which is tourism to a fair extent, tied with construction to lead sector growth with 3,100 additional wage jobs. New Mexicans traveling in-state aren’t driving the growth. Instead, people from other states with jobs and higher incomes are visiting here.
Weakness shows in the 700-job year-over-year drop in mining, which mostly is oil and gas. Yet Eddy and Lea counties, center of the business, gained 3,400 jobs over the year. Even long-suffering San Juan County, home to the gas business, gained around 700 jobs.
More weakness shows in manufacturing, which continues to fade, dropping another 200 jobs for the year.
The two sectors are small, which only 44,300 jobs between them in December. But they pay well and are basic industry sectors, unlike construction which depends on businesses in other sectors to need buildings.

December Real Estate Numbers Up

The December numbers moved in a happy direction for the single family detached home marker in metro Albuquerque. The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the December sales report yesterday.
As compared to December 2016, December 2017 new listings were down, pending and closed sales were up, the time to sell a house was down and the inventory of homes for sale was down.
As compared to November, the comparisons show different results, a least part of which is the seasonal slowing of sales.
Closed sales, 904 in December, were up 19 units, or 2.1%, from a year ago. Sales were down 78 units, or 9.4%, from November. Pending sales increased 61 units, or nine percent from a year ago, but showed a 179 unit, or 19.5% drop from November.
Homes took an average 54 days to sell during December, five fewer days than during November 2016. The average sales period was up from 51 days in November and 46 days during October.
The median sales price was $193,900 during December with the average sales price at $230,180. Prices increased, respectively, 2.1% and 3.9% from December 2016. The median price dropped $5,600, or 2.8%, from November. The average was down $6,909, or 2.9%, from November.
During 2017 the sale of 11,745 single family detached homes closed in metro Albuquerque. That was a 6.5% increase from 2016. The sale of 1,165 condominiums and townhouses closed during the year, an 11.3% increase over 2016.

ABQ Blows Smoke at Sunset Mag. Sunset Inhales

Abq is one of 20 communities in Sunset magazine’s annual “20 Best Places to Live” feature. The headline is, “an enchanting downtown revival.” The first mention is “Breaking Bad.” The second is that Microsoft was founded in Albuquerque, which happened in 1975. S0 ABQ has no other cool events in the last 43 years except “Breaking Bad.” The photo is dominated by the Kimo Theater. The hot news is that the “12-block” Central Ave core is being “reinvigorated” from its previous existence of boarded up warehouses and tagged railroad cars, attractions that exist but are off the main Central Ave downtown. Sunset touts the “city’s investment in new public transportation lines.” Just today new Mayor Tim Keller held a news conference detailing the lengthy list of big troubles with those transportation lines, which are know as the ART project. And the city still doesn’t have the money from the feds to pay for ART.
Sunset claims downtown “has become a place where locals gather all days of the week.” My understanding is that downtown is substantially empty. Am I missing something?

No Surprise—Higher Ed Study Recommends No Change

A study led by the Higher Education Department that recommended no change in the structure of higher education in New Mexico wasn’t quite as ridiculous as it sounds. That’s because the study group was responding to a joint memorial from the 2017 legislature instructing that the department to compare New Mexico higher education with other states.
So that’s what the group did—play by the imposed rules.
Apparently nothing creative appeared.
My reaction to the headline, “Higher ed panel doesn’t endorse consolidation,” was that here we had another instance of the fox being assigned to review the condition of the chicken coop. A prominent such circumstance was a couple of years ago when the transportation department review the status of the commuter railroad, which it runs. NO, DOT’s repot said, we can’t do anything with the railroad except continue to lose millions each year.
To a certain extent, we did have a chicken coop exercise, but the group was just playing within the assigned rules. Still, when Western New Mexico President Joe Shepard co-leads the group, it can be expected that he will defend “local control.” Yet Western leads my list for structural change, as in from a four-year school into two-year school and perhaps closing Western’s programs in Deming or Truth or Consequences or turning them over to New Mexico State which will have greater administrative capability.

Tour Acoma Sky City. A Matter of Respect. Take Money.

We visited Acoma Sky City a few weeks ago. Sky City is the mesa—a rock, really—that still is home to a few Acoma People and draws hundreds for feast days, dances and other ceremonies. Sky City is located about 15 miles south of 1-40 and is reachable from exit 108 on the west and exit 102 on the east. Check www.acomaskycity.org for details such as tour times. Tours are competently run, informative and not exactly cheap at $25/person regular price. For romantics there is plenty of opportunity to partake of the Native American ethereal and spirituality. The Sky City brochure quotes a woman from Florida, “What an eye opening reverent moment.” OK.
Sky City is a 700-year time warp or maybe 900 years. The rock has no plumbing, no running water and no electricity except for propane.
A few highlights were unexpected simply because I hadn’t given them a thought. Sky City is a shopping mall. The tour is circle around the top of the rock. All along the route Acoma craftspeople have tables with their stuff, nice stuff. The vendors must be paid. We used cash. Others paid electronically using what I took to be a wireless device the size of a smartphone. The payment was inserted into one end of the device.
The tour buses climb a road that was cut 20 years (or so) ago to transport movie filming gear to the top. A newish, 4-door silver BMW was my first sight after our bus left the road. Note this, not a pickup truck, though we a saw a couple of new looking, large and brightly polished pickups, but a Beemer, baby. Cool.
A New Mexicans should take the tour. It’s a matter of respect.