Friday, December 21, 2018

Employment Supposedly Grows 2.1%. Downward Adjustment Expected

For November, New Mexico joined 40 other states with a stable unemployment rate. We held at 4.6%. We had the nation’s largest unemployment rate decline over the past year (-1.4 percentage points).
Alaska kept the nation’s highest unemployment rate with 6.3%. We are tied with Ohio for seventh place. The five states between us and Alaska include those perennial favorites, Mississippi and West Virginia.
Our 2.1% increase in employment (17,700 jobs), year over year, is considered statistically significant by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which prepares the numbers and sends them to the states to massage. The Department of Workforce Solutions released the November employment numbers about 3:30 this afternoon.
The guess from state economists is that these pretty 2%+ job increase numbers will be statistically adjusted down about a percentage point early next year. Fake news?The change will come as part of an annual rebasing of job reports.
Leisure and hospitality (tourism) continues to lead sector job production on a not seasonally adjusted basis with employment growing 7,000 jobs, an astonishing 7.3%, between Novembers. Construction followed with 3,000 jobs for a 4.3% increase statewide.
Professional and business services grew by 2,500, followed by transportation, up 1,700, and health care and social assistance, up 1,400.

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