Arizona Outlook (& Real Estate)

"Arizona's economy is one of the most cyclical in the nation as measured by the difference between growth during expansions and recessions," writes Marshall Vest in the spring 2008 issue of Arizona's Economy. Much of this has to do with real estate, which seems, in Arizona, to be regarded as "an industry" standing alone in the economy just like manufacturing. Real estate is cyclical to start. But in Arizona, when real estate booms, it really booms. And vice versa, which is where Arizona is now. 

In New Mexico, real estate is cyclical, but seems a little more grounded. People I talk to in the business understand that real estate depends on other things, namely growing population and employment. Today New Mexico is in the middle of one of its widest economic swings in memory—from record job growth of 3.6% in mid-2006 to around zero today. Normally, the state's ups and downs are of less distance, which may explain the relative steadiness of real estate. Figures from the Realtors Association of New Mexico for 19 areas of the state show sales were down during 2007 from 2006 in all but two areas. Grants and Gallup were the exceptions. However, prices increased in 16 areas. 

Arizona expects job losses during 2008 and 2009.

Unlike New Mexico and nearly everywhere else, the peak home selling time in the hot parts of Arizona is during the spring—March and April. For us, summer, when families can move without disrupting the school year, marks the peak home selling period.