Friday, January 28, 2011

NM Ties Michigan for 2010 Job Performance

New Mexico and Michigan tied for 46th nationally in job performance in the year from December 2009 to December 2010. The state lost another 2,500 wage jobs from November 2010 to December 2010.
Neither item made yesterday’s release from the Department of Workforce Services, the first job report from the Martinez administration and Celina Bussey, DWS secretary designate. The release did acknowledge that New Mexico dropped 3,400 wage jobs over the December-to-December year.
All of that said, by the seasonally adjusted “employment / unemployment” measure, which is different from wage jobs, nothing happened between November and December. “Nothing” means that employment dropped 343 and unemployment increased 209. With employment around 875,000, statistically the change is zero.
The release, appropriately, qualified the statistical situation. Basically, when one uses sampling to produce estimates, the further one gets from the starting point, the less confidence (in a statistical sense) there is in a given number, especially when the number, 343, for example, is quite small. DWS said that the price of producing “timely estimates is that sampling and other errors need to eventually be corrected. That is why we, along with all other states, benchmark the employment estimates to the complete count of employment available principally through administrative records from the unemployment insurance program.”
For the year, then, Albuquerque, down 5,300 jobs, remained the drag on the state’s wage job performance. That means the rest of the state gained 1,900 jobs (5,300 – 3,400 = 1,900). Las Cruces gained 1,900 wage jobs, year-over-year, so outside of Albuquerque and Las Cruces, the rest broke even for the year, not bad considering.
For the year, professional and business services was the loser sector, down 8,300 wage jobs or 8.3%.
For the month from November to December, the rural areas took the hit, down 2,100 jobs. That arithmetic comes from the 400 jobs lost among the four metro areas for the month. (Albuquerque, -100; Las Cruces, -200; Farmington, -100, Santa Fe, no change).
New Mexico ended 2010 with five counties boasting more than 10% unemployment. Luna County continued to lead with 19.4% unemployment.
All will change March 10 with release of the new benchmark numbers. Hold on to your statistical hats.

No comments: