Thursday, July 29, 2010

Abq Home Sales Continue to Beat 2009

The metro Albuquerque June home sales numbers have been out a couple of weeks, but I haven't seen them published. Maybe I missed something. So here they are.
We're almost to the end of July. Pending sales are a leading indicator and dropped sharply in May after the first-time tax credit mostly ended April 30. Sales dropped eight units during June from 731 in May, after four months of increases. So the question will be July. The number of pending sales grew by 51 during June, to 729 from 678 in May.
During June, sales of single-family detached homes continued the string of monthly year-over-year increases that have been the theme for 2010. Metro Albuquerque saw the sale closed on 723 single-family homes during June, an 11.4% increase from June 2009, according to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
Home prices during June were the highest of the year, though down slightly from June 2009. The median home selling price was $181,000, meaning that half the metro homes sold during June cost more than $181,000 and half were less. The average selling price was $219,723.
Homes continued to sell briskly with the average home sold during June on the market for 68 days. That was just two days longer than the 66-day average sales period during May, which was the best since 2005.
There were 185 single-family detached homes sold for prices between $120,000 and $149,000. Prices between $160,000 and $199,000 accounted for 140 home sales during June with 115 sold for between $200,000 and $249,000. Three homes sold for $1 million or more during June.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Economic Rank Drops 22 Places

New Mexico Business Weekly (http://albuquerque.bizjournals.com) reports that the New Mexico economy ranks 36th in health among the states. The report is from www.portfolio.com, owned by American City Business Journals Inc., as is Business Weekly. The annual study emphasizes performance of the private sector. Gauging the unemployment rate, Business Weekly says, “New Mexico's employment picture appears to be stabilizing a bit.”
I disagree.
Here are the numbers.

2010 rank 36
State New Mexico
Employment score -3.79

Private-sector jobs (May 2010) 597,700
Percent growth in private-sector jobs (2005-10) -1.4%
Percent growth in private-sector jobs (2009-10) -2.7%
Raw growth in private-sector jobs (2005-10) -8,300
Raw growth in private-sector jobs (2009-10) -16,600
Unemployment rate (May 2010) 8.4%

2010 rank 36
2009 rank 14
2008 rank 8
2007 rank 7
2006 rank 10
2005 rank 13

Monday, July 26, 2010

Microsoft Analogy Invoked Again. And Wrongly. Of Course.

Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack said today he believes in the Green2V project, a $500 million, one million-square-foot solar panel manufacturing plant proposed for Rio Rancho. Once the city receives the necessary financial information, we will do due diligence, he said. Swisstack’s statement suggests the city has yet to received the financials for the startup firm. Swisstack spoke at the monthly meeting of NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association.
The point here is that Swisstack invoked the Microsoft analogy and invoked it erroneously, following the example of almost all Albuquerque civic leaders over the decades. He claimed Microsoft left Abq because “they couldn’t get the money.”
Swisstack’s implication is that some sort of civic failure exists in the departure of Microsoft from Albuquerque. That isn’t true. It was business.
Specifically (and I writing from memory here, so forebear an occasional detail), it was the mid-1970s. Microsoft had a debt, legal fees, I believe, to the Poole Law Firm. It was $50,000. Gates tried to borrow the money from Albuquerque National Bank, a decidedly conservative outfit. ANB said no, and no surprise. Gates was a very smart visionary, aged maybe 22. Such folks don’t get money from banks. Nor do they get money from lawyers. Bob Poole declined the opportunity to swap the debt for equity. Again, this was a correct decision. Lawyers, my dad having been a major exception, are supposed to work for money, not equity. Neither bankers nor lawyers do venture capital.
Gates then went home to Seattle, the location of the money. It was a business decision. End of story. No social failure on the part of the Albuquerqueans.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Long Term Unemployment Way Up

The Federal Reserve Banks all have publications written for the rest of us. One of those is of EconSouth, produced by the Atlanta Fed (www.frbatlanta.org). The Second Quarter 2010 issue looks at long term unemployment. The title is, “Out of the Workplace… and Struggling to Find a Way Back in.”
The article says, “The U.S. Department of Labor examines the nation’s workforce from multiple angles: age, gender, educational level, and geography, to name a few. Among these demographic categories, the growth of long-term unemployment is apparent. In April 2009, 27.5 percent of the nation’s unemployed had been out of work 27 weeks or longer, according to BLS data. By December, that number had jumped to 39.8 percent of the unemployed. By April of 2010, the number was drawing close to half of unemployed workers at 45.9 percent, practically double the rate from the previous recession, which peaked at 23 percent.
“A group known as the marginally attached includes people not looking for work but who indicate they want a job and have looked sometime in the last year; discouraged workers (a subset of the marginally attached, they have given a job market–related reason for not currently seeking work); and people working part time for economic reasons (for example, those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule). The U.S. Census Bureau places the combined percentages of the unemployed and marginally attached at around 17 percent of the potential labor force, which comprises the employed, unemployed, and marginally attached.”
In New Mexico during the first quarter of 2010, this larger group came in at 14.5 percent of the potential labor force. See www.bls.gov/lau/stalt10q1.htm.
Retraining is an uncertain venture for those over 50 because the rate of return is low, the article says. Shifting workers into a new sector also is easier said than done.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

State Drops 11,900 Jobs During June

New Mexico lost an amazing 11,900 wage jobs from May to June and 14,200, or 1.8 percent, between June 2009 and June 2010, the state Department of Workforce Services reported today. The size of the monthly losses seem surprising, especially considering the lack of large layoffs that would have hit in June.
The sweet life has ended for state government employees as 4,300 jobs went away year over year. State government lost 9,600 jobs in June. Federal government employment grew 3,900 over the year, mostly because of the census, which is about done. Look for the federal job total to drop.
After several months of three or four job sectors growing, we’re back to having just two with year over year job growth. The educational and health services (a single sector) and leisure and hospitality (also a single sector) both added jobs. Leisure and hospitality is essentially tourism. DWS offered no explanation of the growth. My story from July 5 is that Russell's Truck Stop folks at Springer must have had a good holiday weekend. At about 3:30 the afternoon of July 5, we had to wait to get access to a gas pump. No long, but any wait seems unusual. The trash cans were overflowing. A down note was that one set of rest rooms was "out of commission." I’m told that resort communities across northern New Mexico also had good traffic over the Fourth.
Five counties have more than 10% unemployed.
The metro areas:
Albuquerque: May-June: 3,500 jobs lost. June 2009 – June 2010: 5,100 jobs lost.
Las Cruces: May-June: 1.900 jobs lost. June 2009 – June 2010: 400 jobs gained.
Santa Fe: May-June: 200 jobs added. June 2009 – June 2010: 700 jobs lost. No state government jobs disappeared in Santa Fe during June. Nor did any go away in the past year. State government employment in Santa Fe remained at 8,200.
Farmington: May-June: 100 jobs lost. June 2009 – June 2010: 2,200 jobs lost.

Historian Office Location Is Secret. Email, too

The headline exaggerates. Just a bit.
The Office of the State Historian is supposed to be at 1205 Camino Carlos Rey in Santa Fe. It may be there. Here’s the tale of finding the State Historian.
One heads east from Cerrillos Road and after a couple of blocks, a large building appears to the left or north. The sign on the building identifies it as the state library. The pillar sign in front says the building houses the state library and other organizations but makes no mention of the historian. The building has two wings with the entrance where the wings meet. Eventually a sign is noticed on the top of the building. The sign says, “1209 Camino Carlos Rey.”
The conventional logic of building numbering dictates that 1205 is next door to 1209. This logic turns into much cruising of the parking lot behind 1209. No 1205 appears.
Eventually the guy approach—look around and find 1205—runs out of options. Plan B becomes to ask someone inside 1209 for the location of 1205. Lo and behold, the first office seen inside 1209 is the State Historian. This suggests the conclusion that the eastern wing of the building is 1205. No information supports this conclusion.
The trip to the State Historian’s office came as a way to deal with an email to the office that was bounced back with the message, “Remote SMTP server has rejected address Diagnostic code: smtp;553 sorry, that domain isn't in my list of allowed rcpthosts (#5.7.1).”
The Santa Fe trip was already planned so the notion became to take a minute and drop the rejected email by the State Historian’s Office.
The woman in the foyer of the office received the email and commented that the rejected address was the organization’s old email address. The comment offered another insight into secrecy. The email address came from the Historian’s website.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Job Losses Lead Nation

New Mexico leads nation in percentage job losses. Here's the word(s), released today, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. During June, "The largest over-the-month percentage decreases in employment (among all the states) occurred in New Mexico (-1.4 percent)...The largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment occurred in New Mexico (-2.2 percent)." Further, employment dropped 11,500 jobs in the state during June. That astonishing figure ranks fourth nationally. Arizona, with more than twice New Mexico's population, was just ahead of us in raw job losses with 11,700 gone.

Employment, seasonally adjusted, in New Mexico was 804,400 in May and 793,200 in June.

Some measurement quirks may exist because New Mexico's unemployment rate actually dropped from 8.4% in May to 8.2% in June. The unemployment rate 8.7% in April and 7.1% in June 2009.

This a helluva topic to pick for restarting blog entries here. But I had to start sometime.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Blog Shifts Perspective

The publication Capitol Report New Mexico has a new site, www.capitolreportnewmexico.com. Much of the material previously posted here will appear on the new site. That's because the site and the publication are both now owned by the Rio Grande Foundation. The site supports the mission of the publication which is fairly straight reporting, through a conservative view, of policy matters in New Mexico, centering on the legislature.
Smart aleck stuff, more personal stuff, however tempting, won't make it to the new site, but will appear here occasionally. For example, this is the place to point out that the appearance of Lt. Gov. Diane Denish at an Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce lunch last Thursday (May 21) was all about politics. Yes, Denish was scheduled to talk about business issues. But this is the time for the organized business establishment, the Chamber, to get cozy with the presumptive heir apparent of the governor's office. It ain't philosophy folks, it's "business," namely stability and access.
Here, also, is the place to mention that while PNM CEO Jeff Sterba quite properly touted massive reductions in mercury emissions from the San Juan Generating Station at PNM's shareholder's meeting this week, he also gave CFL light bulbs to people attending the meeting. CFL's contain mercury and inevitably a few of PNM's bulbs will make it to land fills.
If this split perspective doesn't work, I will let you know. -Harold Morgan

Monday, April 27, 2009

Economy: Abq Journal 4/26 & 27

The Albuquerque Journal ran stories Sunday and yesterday about the New Mexico economy. The Sunday story, the second lead, was headlined, "State Is Showing Signs of Recovery." That, folks, is simply not true.
The subhead was, "Hints of Activity Ease Pain of Recession." This is true, but meaningless. One joy of our economy is that positive things are always happening. A few positive things are happening in Albuquerque and around the state.
The two stories are based on "Economy Watch," a report prepared quarterly for the Journal by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of New Mexico. The quarterly nature of the report means the Journal stories base on data from the fourth quarter of 2008.
In the stories, one happy number was real. Albuquerque Economic Development is setting records for the number of companies visiting metro Albuquerque. However, new jobs from the firms are a year away, at best, and maybe two years. It remains marvelous that AED continues to do what AED does so well.
In the meantime, though, the trend is what hasn't changed. The trend showed 12,000 wage jobs lost statewide from February 2008 through February 2009. For March, the year over year loss was 16,400. For the week of April 11, New Mexicans filed 2,200 new claims for unemployment compensation. The figure for a year ago was 1,200.
This will take a while to change, if only because the numbers are large. In February, there were 831,000 wage jobs across the state with 388,000 in Albuquerque.
A lovely sentence illustrates the thin nature of the straws the reports grasp. "Lost jobs are being replaced by an emerging alternative energy manufacturing industry, film production and several new companies."
This might be true if it said, "A few lost jobs are being replaced..." Further, the new jobs aren't the ones that have been lost. While the hundred or so new jobs from Reelx Network are nice, in fact the film jobs, mostly, com and go and the growth has eased.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Movie Subsidy More Coming

Except the "more" is coming from Texas. Here is the beginning of a story from today's El Paso Times. "Gov. Rick Perry signs Texas law to lure moviemakers
By Kelley Shannon / Associated Press Posted: 04/24/2009 12:00:00 AM MDT
AUSTIN -- Surrounded by cheering film industry workers, Gov. Rick Perry signed legislation Thursday aimed at helping Texas lure more movies and television shows to the state.
"Oh, you're going to be busy," Perry told the crowd. "We're going to move Texas to the top of the credits."
The new law took effect immediately because it passed by large margins in the House and Senate."
Also today, Las Cruces Sun-News Managing Editor Walt Rubel compares the two studies done on New Mexico's movie subsidy. The results were quite different, reflecting quite different methods and quite different sponsors. (Duh!) "These guys aren't even in the same ballpark," Rubel says. He calls for accountability in New Mexico's tax incentives.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Jobs: March, the Rest of the Story

The 1.9% March 2008 to March 2009 job loss is New Mexico's worst year-over-year performance since 1954, reports the Department of Workforce Services.
DWS says, "Only two of the state’s 13 industries posted any job growth since last year, while the eleven others reported employment declines. Most of the gains came from the health care component of the educational & health services industry, which was up 4,400 jobs on the year. Government jobs also continued to grow, increasing by 2,000. Most of the new government jobs are at the local level, many at tribally owned casinos."
Wow, the growth is in healthcare, tribal casinos, which are part of local government, and other government.
Albuquerque: Over the past year, payroll employment dropped 2%, or 7,700 jobs. Metro Albuquerque has lost jobs for six consecutive months, losing jobs at a slightly faster rate than the state. Only three of the 12 major industry divisions have added jobs since last March.
Over the year, Santa Fe lost 1,100 jobs, a 1.7% drop.
With no job growth, but no loss either, Las Cruces had the best job performance of the states three larger metros. Monthly figures are not reported for Farmington, our smallest metro area.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Jobs: March Unemployment

New Mexico's unemployment jumped again in March and employment dropped. No surprise either place.
The unemployment increase was half a percentage point—to 5.9% from 5.4% in February, a change considered "statistically significant" by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the numbers. New Mexico was one of 18 states with a statistically significant jump in unemployment rate.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, New Mexico's labor force dropped 400 between March 2008 (955,000) and March 2009 (954,600). The number of unemployed went from 36,800 to 51,600 during the period. That means the number employed, as statistically defined, dropped from 918,200 in March 2008 to 903,000 in March 2009. With the seasonal adjustment, New Mexico's labor force dropped 2,400 and unemployment increased 21,200.
The number of New Mexicans on non-farm payrolls went from a seasonally adjusted 848,200 to 838,700 during the March to March year. Construction employment in the state dropped by more than 7,000. Manufacturing lost 2,300 jobs.
Professional and business services lost "only" 900 jobs, from 107,800 in March 2008 to 106,900 in March 2009. This sector is especially important to New Mexico because of its size and because it contains many of the state's science and research organizations.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Hispanic Cultural Center: The Gallery

We went to the "Meso-Americhanics (Maneuvering Mestizaje)" exhibit at the gallery of the National Hispanic Cultural Center last Sunday. We arrived at the 10 a.m. opening time. Only one semi-sleeping homeless man occupied the covered walk to the main center that contains the gallery. When it opened, my sense was that the center was a guilt-assuaging exercise, financed by major corporations, that really was a question looking for an answer. The gallery seems to be part of the answer. Jamex and Einar de la Torre are the artists. They live and work both in California and Baja California. Blown glass is their main vehicle, to which they add whatever is handy with thrift stores as a common resource . It's a rich mix and worth seeing. The results are described as "border baroque" in a sub-head on the card summarizing the exhibit.
Words, really, are the only problem with the show. "Border baroque," together, offer a general concept. The main title does not. "Americhanics," what's that? A good many of the item descriptions seems to have been written in the deconstructionist English departments of some Ivy League university. There are strings of really long words. But meaning? None to me.
The center's website is www.nhccnm.org.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Politics: Congress Pays Bonuses, Wilson, Udall, Too

It's one of those gotcha stories journalists love in the dark recesses holding their sense of humor.
Today's Wall Street Journal has a story on page A5 headlined, "Congress Thinks Bonuses Are Fine—for Its Own Employees." Tucked into the 19th inch of the 25 inch the story (and thereby verifying my truism that the good stuff is at the bottom of the story) was this item, "
"A handful lawmakers who retired handed out a total of $283,000 in bonuses. After Republican Heather Wilson gave up her New Mexico seat in the House to run unsuccessfully for the Senate, she gave 13 aides bonuses as high as $3,000. 'My practice over ten years in Congress was to give bonuses at the end of the year,' she said."
Tom Udall, now Senator, played a more complex game.
The story says, "Last fall, Democratic Rep Tom Udall left the house to run for New Mexico's Senate seat. Several members of his House staff took leaves from their government jobs to work for his campaign. When Mr. Udall won the race and returned to Washington, his office budget had accrued a large surplus. He decided to spend the surplus funds by increasing salaries for nearly his entire staff for a short time. Disbursement forms show that in late December, Mr. Udall temporarily increased salaries for 19 of his 22 employees at an annualized rate of $163,796. Among those who earned the higher pay were staff assistants, a scheduler, an executive assistant, and a part-time employee. Spokeswoman Marissa Padilla said Mr. Udall traditionally 'adjusts salaries at the end of the year based on seniority, merit and unused leave' when his office has a surplus."
This congressional bonus thing seems cultural. Wilson is said to be considering running for governor. We should ask if she plans to bring the D.C. culture to state government where it would seem to fit nicely. For Udall, at least, what happens in D.C., stays in D.C.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Broadband: Abq RFP Cancelled

There was fair hoopla when the City of Albuquerque put out a request for proposal to bring wireless broadband to the entire city, especially area less well off economically. The cost have been $30 million, I was told. So it might have a clue (or clueless) when
“I don’t know,” was a common answer from city of Albuquerque staff to questions from the more than 50 people at a May 2007 bidders conference for the proposed wireless broadband network across Albuquerque. “I would have to check that,” was another response. A fair proportion of the 50 people had come from out of town.
Not quite four months later, on September 28, 2007, a city inter-office memo quietly appeared canceling the proposal.
About six weeks ago I happened to wonder what became of the project. I started my inquiries with Deborah James, said to be public information officer for Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. I started with Ms. James because PIOs get paid to answer questions from people like me. Ms. James has a reputation for non-response, an accurate reputation, it seems. Something like five emails elicited one response. That was a phone call during which Ms. James promised to have someone call me.
Eventually I sought another source. About 36 hours of email back and forth, most of it due to some compatibility issues, brought the cancelation memo via email. The memo said the city's idea was to send "little or no" money. But "the proposals presumed a capital investment that could run into the millions." Also, "the proposals required an investment or solution that did not meet the technical guidelines of the RFP."
The memo said, "The original scope of services is outdated."
That, quietly, was that.
The private sector wireless guys are happy.